THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

THE
FuturesCom
BI-WEEKLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

24 February, 1997

“A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong -- not taking the loss- that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul." - Jesse livermore-

On the Frenzied Forex Front.

March J-Yen:
closed up dn 42 on Friday. Selling pressure will be seen near 8178 next week. Above that a spurt into the 8220 is not out of the question. If this were to happen we would be sellers for a continuation of the trend lower. Monday the JYH has support near 8119 which is critical, if it fails 8078 is likely then 8044 to 8029 should trade. We believe a close under 8119 augers for a test of 8044 which should then give way to new lows and a slip into the 7864 region...

Early Resistance on Monday is 8169 where we would be tempted to sell for a quick turn and risk only 25 pts.

The March Swiss Franc is a sale on rallies. Resistance Monday is near 6832 where we would be a seller for a turn lower and risk a close over 6875. A close under 6809 is negative for a slip to new lows and beyond. Long Term we see Swiss trading near 6200. Long term traders Go short near 6872 or on a close under 6809 for a position and resumption of the trend down. Early support next week is near 6732 more support is near 6673 which will likely trade on any further decline.

Trade Accordingly.

March British Pounds longs from near 161.40 for a position should use a stop under 160.80 basis a two day close. We expect the BPH test 164.20 shortly if 161.40 can hold... Resistance Monday is near 16224 and 16290 then 164.20 where we would sell longs And maybe even probe the short side...Stay tuned.

DMH has Resistance near 5939 then 5964 where we would sell and risk only 20 pt Trade accordingly. Support near 5889 then 5877 to 5855 where we would buy with a risk of 30 pts. More support remains near 5839 we see DM’s trading near 5500 shortly.......

* The closes in DM and JY were in our opinion negative and lower markets are likely next week.

The Precious Metals: Gold is still Warming the engines and we feel the recent rally was only a test drive....

April Gold Longs should stay long for now, sell rallies if able into 365 to get ammo, Then buy a pullback and use a stop close under 335 for two days and say “The Hell with it ”

Be long.

We continue to Recommend buying December 1997 Gold Calls The odds are becoming better that Gold will go up over $ 50 in the next 6 Months, if it does ...... Gold has value at these levels and should be accumulated for longer term positions. Technically speaking April Gold needs to hold over 345 for any upward trade to occur. Resistance is now near 355 and 359. A close over 355 augurs for thrust into 365 ...

Trade accordingly.

March Silver, Longs from 483 should use a stop close under 512 to protect profits for now...We still feel one should Buy dips and Be long...

Support is near 514 then 512 with more at 498 where we would have buy orders resting . Resistance is near 525 then 538. A close over 521 or 526 tells us to add to longs and then sell into the 538 region if able.....

May Copper is destined for 114 in our opinion. Sharp Declines Should Bought.

Support Early next week in May Copper is 108.70 where we would go long for a bounce and hold on a close over 109.60, use a stop under 106 since we want to buy there also..... Nearby resistance is at 109.95 then 110.10. If May Copper does close over 110.20 early next week look for 113 to 113.60 to trade

Trade Accordingly

The Exciting Energies

April Crude Oil

Crude Oil is suffering. Next Week early support is near 2099 where we would probe the long side using a stop under 2070, Long Term traders can Buy and use a stop close under 2034 for three days. Resistance is near 21.49 then 21.60 where we would sell an early rally for a turn and risk a trade over 21.77.

The Grande Grains:

March Beans “If a problem surface’s during the Growing Season Beans will go to over $ 10.00 this year”--FuturesCom- Feb 9 1997

We still hold this view....

March Beans have critical support 781 with more below at 774 on Monday, have your buy orders ready and risk a close under 766 3/4. For two days... If March Beans close over 795 the shorts have another large problem. Contract highs of 830 set back in July of 1996 would be within reach. If a close over 795 occurs, add to longs in anticipation of the move to 808 then 830....

Conservative Spreaders should continue to Buy September Beans and Sell November Beans...More hearty Traders can Buy August and Sell Nov or Jan...

Corn : “Long term traders may wish to go long a few Corn Contracts and sell calls And keep it in their back pocket.” 2-09 open on 2-10 at 2.69 for July settle Friday at 292. (Your back pocket should feel pretty good by now)

Technically speaking Monday’s trade will be an important one. Friday, July Corn closed at 292b 1/4 We suggest to buy near 289 with BOTH HANDS use stops under 282 basis a tow day close if you can handle it.... Resistance is near 294 the 299 A close over 299 augurs for a test of 310 then 326 by the Summer....

Spreaders should start Buying Sept Corn and Selling Dec Corns, if we a taste of last years Corn Rally the Spread will move out to 15 cents....

Trade accordingly.

Wheat: The Race is on.... July Wheat Hit our first target Friday closing at 363. For Monday Buy July wheat near 360 3/4 for a bounce, use a stop under 356 to protect. Longs for the Pull should use a stop under 346 basis the close for two days.

Resistance is near 364 then 367 a close over 364 augers for a test of 376 then? Who knows ... $ 4.00 wheat again.?

The Softs... May Coffee Resistance is near 162.80 then 164.20 and 165.35. An open under 161.50 augurs for a test of 160. 80 to 160.30 region, which probably will not hold...Below that 157.60 then 152.30...which we feel is likely to trade on any further weakness. However we feel 152 to 153 should stop the break if it happens..

We feel Coffee is now a trading market rather than for a position. Only traders with Ice Water in their Veins should start trading Coffee now.

We urge caution on both sides. No Cotton Comment today as we prepare for July.. However we still see 80 cent Cotton down the road.

May Sugar May Sugar has support near 1095 where we might like to probe the long side for a trade use a stop under 10.78. Resistance is near the 1130 to 1136 region where we would go short and risk a close over 1145.

A close under 1104 is negative...

May Cocoa has support at 1274 where we would buy for a position and risk a close under 1255. Resistance is near 1326...Where we would sell for a turn and risk 20 pt.

In the Lively livestock Sector:

April Cattle longs should now focus on 70 cents ad Cattle has gone into a Rip to the upside. Longer Term Resistance is near 6990 to 7002 above that look for a trade against 7072 where we would exit all positions and wait.. Protective stops should now be raised to 6857.

April Cattle has nearby support in the 68.77 region where we would buy for a bounce on Monday. risk only 30 pts. Resistance is near 6947 then 6090 and 7002 early next week ...

We still remain friendly to Cattle and suggest buying dips for a rally into the spring Which should carry Cattle into the 7200 to 7300 region......

June hogs Resistance is near 79.55 where we would sell for a position with a stop over 8070. Support is near 7882 and 7847, failure to hold these levels indicate a slip into the 7787 region.

Trade accordingly

April Hogs Longs from 7222 on Tuesday. Hold on a close over 7245 and use a stop under 7212 for two days...Sell April Hogs near 7347 for a turn only and risk 60 pts More Resistance is near 7405 where we would sell the longs and get short....With a stop over 7452.

Spreaders can Buy August and Sell July hogs and expect the spread to narrow into the Summer...

March bellies have resistance near 74.87 then 7512 where we would sell for a turn and risk 50 pts. Support is near 7367 and 7337. If March Bellies fail to hold 7367 early next week Sell ... We feel March Bellies will grind their way down to 7170 and beyond maybe even a slow as 6800....Sell Rallies....

Bonds and SP500:

March Bonds Longer Term Traders: Resistance near 114-16 where we would go short for a position ...use a stop close over 114.29 basis the close ...Support is near 111-27 where we would buy for a three day bounce and risk 15 pts....Trade accordingly.....

On Monday March Bonds have support near 112-27 where we would buy and risk 12 pts Resistance is near 113-09 and 113-23 where we would sell for a turn and risk a trade over 113-28.

Trade accordingly.....

March SP 500 March SP 500 Resistance is near 808.40 where we would sell for a quick turn and risk 150 pts. More Sellers should appear near 810.75 then 811.90 beyond that 813.40 should trade. Support is near 803.40 where we would probe the long side. With a stop under 801.25. More support is near 797.95 If that fails 795.40 should trade and hold the break for the day....

The close over 804.40 was positive, we feel the SP500 should now test 808.40 or so....

A ship in harbor does not sail.

Happy Trading

Bill

Back to FuturesCom