FuturesCom Investment Publications
Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis of Futures Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook (BW) Sunday March 26, 2000
Bonds.. SP500.. Forex.. Precious Metals.. Energies..Grains.. Livestock.. Softs
7690 Rockport Circle Lake Worth Florida 33467 Voice 561-433-2995 Fax 561-433-9243 http://www.futurescom.com
"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--" Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Sunday, March 26, 2000
4:00 AM
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
June SP500
Resistance should appear near 1563.5 and the 1569 to 1576 region a close over 1576 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1593 Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609 to 1615 where sellers should appear. Traders can sell at 1609 and hold for lower prices. Initially plan on risking a close over 1615 for three days in row. Beyond that resistance is 1628.5 and the 1642 to 1655 region
Nearby Support is at 1552. A close under 1552 is negative and augurs for a test of 1535 to 1529 and eventually 1512 and most likely the 1496 to1490 region. Failure there augurs for a test of 1484 then 1471.50 and eventually the 1459 to 1453 region. Which we feel is more likely than not to occurs… Trade Accordingly
Traders should go short if a close under 1552 occurs. Stay tuned for Flashes
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Resistance should appear near 11,155 to 11,187. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11,257 then 11,300 to 11,360. Beyond that a test of the 11,500 region is likely to occur. Above that sellers should appear near 11,640 to 11,690 and 11,815.. which should cap any rally over the next two weeks..
Support should appear near 11,087 and 11,010 to 10,960 under that 10,810 and the 10,757 region offer support. Below that support should appear near 10,680 to 10,630 and 10,580 should contain a decline for a bit. A slip under would indicate an eventual test of 10,360 to 10,320.
Cash NASDAQ
Nearby Resistance is at 4973 then 4995 and 5036 to 5067. Beyond that resistance should appear near the 5127 to 5139 region and 5200 to 5211. A close over 5215 is friendly and would suggest an advance towards 5259 to 5282 where sellers should Cap the Rally for a bit..
Support is at 4925 region.Below that buyers should appear near 4855 to 4845 and the 4785 to 4775 region.Under that 4717 to 4695 should contain a decline for a bit..
Trade Accordingly
June NASDAQ 100
Support is at 4790 to 4775 then 4717 to 4695 and the 4650 to 4639 region ..Under that support is at 4582 and 4537. Below that support is at 4447 to 4425. Under that buyers should appear near 4382 to 4370 and the 4315 to 4305 region which should stop a decline for a bit.
Nearby Resistance is at 4845 to 4856 then 4925 .Beyond that resistance should appear near 4975 to 4995 t. Above that good sellers should appear near the 5036 to 5067 region and Cap a Rally for a while..
Trade Accordingly..
June Bonds
Friday’s Action , aligned with the Fed’s recent rate increase and a willingness to increase rates further should inhibit a Bond Rally over the near term
Nearby Support should appear near 95-26, a close under augurs for a test of 95-12 to 95-06 and eventually 94-31 and 94-18. Below that support is at 93-27 and 93-12
To 93-07 which should contain a decline for a bit. Traders can buy at 93-07 for a bounce and risk a close under 92-25 for three days in a row.
On the Upside Nearby resistance is at 96-09 and 96-23. Traders can sell at 96-09 for a turn lower, risk a close over 97-07 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is near 97-15 then 97-28 and the 98-02 region, which should cap a rally for a bit…
Traders should go short if a close under 95-26 occurs…
Stay tuned for a stop and trade accordingly…
The Frenzied Forex Front
Nearby Resistance is at 9526 to 9542 then 9582 and the 9625 to 9640 region.
Traders can sell at 9624 and risk a close over 9640 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 9671 then 9707 to 9737 and 9777… Above that sellers should appear near 9821 and Cap a rally.
Nearby Support should appear near 9445 to 9423 and the 9378 region. Traders can buy at 9378 and hold for higher prices Below that Buyers should appear near 9347 to 9315 and the 9347 to 9316 region, which should contain a decline over the near term
Stay Tuned for Flashes and trade accordingly
June Swiss Franc
Nearby Resistance is at 6257 to 6270 beyond that 6337 to 6350 should Cap a rally for a bit. Traders can sell at 6337 for a quick turn lower and risk a close over 6350 for three days in a row. . Beyond that 6417 to 6430 should cap any rally over the near term…
Nearby Support is at 6190 to 6165, traders can buy at 6190 and risk a close under 6165 for three days in a row.. Under that 6139 and the 6113 to 6101 should provide support Below that 6068 and the 6035 to 6023 region should contain a decline for a bit..
Stay tuned for Flashes...
June British Pound
Support should appear near 1.5926 then 1.5836 and the1.5760 to 1.5732 region. . Under that support is at 1.5690 then 1.5520 and the 1.5350 to 1.5290 region..
Resistance is at 1.5986 and 1.6090 to 1.6150 .Beyond that sellers should appear near 1.6286.
Traders should go long if a close over 1.6150 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes.
June Canadian Dollar
Nearby Support is at 6836 to 6809 BW Traders can buy at 6837 and hold for higher prices.. Below that buyers should appear near 6783
Resistance is at 6871 then 6906 to 6919 and 6955. Beyond that resistance is near 6990 to 7003 and the 7074 to 7088 region BW Traders can sell at 7074 for a turn lower and risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row..
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex flashes
Precious Metals
June Gold
Support is at 287.4 Traders can buy at 288.30 or better and hold for higher prices.. Below that support is at 285.10 then 283 to 282 and the 277 region.
Resistance is at 290.90 then 292.8 to 293.7. A close over 293.7 is friendly and augurs for a test of 297 to 299 and more likely the 304 region.
May Copper
Nearby Support is at 8045 to 8025 and the 7955 to 7940 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7865 to 7835 and the 7780 to 7765 region. Traders can buy at 7780 for a turn higher..Risk a close under 7675 for three days In a row ..Under that buyers should appear near 7690 and the 7605 to 7590 region
Nearby Resistance is at 8120 to 8135. A close over 8135 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8195 to 8225 then 8300 to 8315 and the 8390 to 8405 region
Traders should go long if a close over 8135 occurs.
May Silver
Support should appear 512 and 506 to 503, under that support at 499.5 to 497 and 492.5 to 491.5 should contain the decline, basis the close, for a bit..Traders can buy at 492.5 and hold for higher prices..
Resistance is at 520.0 to 521.5.. A close over 521.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 528 to 534 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 521.5 occurs
Stay tuned for Flashes...
The Exciting Energies
May Crude
Resistance is at 2820 to 2829 and 2874 to 2883 , a close over 2883 augurs for a test of
2928 to 2937 and the 2972 to 2990 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3036 to 3045 and 3092 to 3101..
Support is at 2775 to 2758 and should hold for a bit Traders can buy at 2776 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 2724 to 2716 ands the 2672 to 2663 region…
Under that Buyers should appear near 2620 to 2612 and stop a break ..
Traders should go long if a close over 2883 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned For Flashes
May Unleaded Gas
Resistance is at 8850 to 8870 . Beyond that sellers should appear near 8965 and the 9140 to 9155 region . Above that resistance is at 9235 and the 9315 to 9345 region which should cap a rally.. Traders can sell at 9315 and risk a close over 9345 for three days in a row.
Nearby Support is at 8777 then 8685 to 8665 and the 8590 region ..Traders can buy at 8590 for a turn higher , risk a close under 8560 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 8495 to 840 and the 8390 region. Under that Buyers should appear near 8315 to 8300 and stop a decline..
May Heating Oil
Resistance is at 6929, a close over augurs for a test of 6990 to 7005 and the 7075 to 7085 region.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7140 to 7170 and the 7240 to 7255 region Above that a test of 7328 to 7342 is likely .. Traders can sell at 7325 and risk a close over 7430 for three days in a row. Beyond that Resistance should appear near 7590 to 7605.
.
Nearby Support is 6835 to 6805. Under that Buyers should appear near 6755 to 6740.. Traders can buy at 6755 and hold for higher prices.. Below that buyers should appear near 6673 to 6659 and the 6577 region which should contain a decline over the near term…
Trade Accordingly. and Stay tuned for Flashes
The Grand Grains
Nearby Support should appear near 528 1/2 to 525 3/4 traders can buy at 528 1/2 and risk a close under 525 for three days in a row. Under that support is at 521 1/4 to 520 and the 514 to 512 region …
Resistance is at 534 1/2 to 535 3/4, a close over 535 1/2 is friendly and augurs for a test of 541 to 543 and eventually the 549 1/2 to 550 region.. Where Good Sellers should appear..Beyond that a test of 555 to 557 and the 564 to 565 1/2 region is likely.
If It Holds…
Stay tuned for Flashes
Traders should go long if a close over 535 1/2 occurs.
May Soybean Meal
Support is near the 169.6 to 168.9 and 167.2 Under that support is at 165.5 to 164.2 and should contain a decline basis the close.. .
Resistance is at 173.1 to 173.8. Above that resistance should appear near
177.3 to 178.
May SoyBean Oil
Support is at 1738 to 1731 . Below that decent buyers should appear near the 1696 to 1689 region and contain a decline for bit ..Below that support should appear near 1655 to 1642..
Resistance should appear near 1756 and the 1774 to 1780 region, a close over 1780 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1808 to 18322 and eventually the 1858 to 1869 region…
Beyond that sellers should Appear near 1902 to 1909..
May Wheat
Resistance is at 255 1/4 to 256 3/4 and 261 to 262, a close over 262 is friendly and augurs for a test of 266 1/2 to 267 1/2 . Beyond that a test of 271 3/4 is likely.
Support is at 251 3/4 to 251 and should continue to hold..Below that
support is at 246 and the 242 to 241 1/4 region , which should contain a decline..
May Corn
Resistance is at 232 1/4 and the 235 1/2 to 237 region .. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 241 to 242 region.
Support should appear near 229 and the 227 1/2 to 226 3/4 region . Traders can buy at 226 3/4 and hold for higher prices Below that buyers should appear near the 224 1/2 and contain a decline for a bit. Under that 218 1/2 to 217 should hold
Trade Accordingly.
May Cotton
Support remains near 5880 to 5855. Below that support should appear near 5805 to 5790 and stop the decline for a bit .. Traders can buy at 5810 and hold for higher prices.. Under that 5729 to 5716 Should hold..
Resistance is at 5945 to 5957 and the 6023 to 6035 region. A close over 6035 is friendly and augurs for a test of 61101 to 6110 and eventually 6165 to 6190.Above that a trade towards the 6255 to 6270 region is likely.Beyond that Resistance is at 6335 to 6350. Traders should go long if a close over 5965 occurs..
Trade Accordingly
May Sugar
Support is at 534 then 525 and 515 to 507 . Below that support should appear near 501. Which should contain a decline basis the close for a bit.. Traders can buy at 501 and risk a close under 481 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 548 and the 559 to 562 region.. Beyond that a test of 571 and the 582 to 586 region is likely Traders should go long if a close over 548 occurs.
Trade Accordingly
May Coffee
Support is at 101.55 to 101.05 and the 100.50 to 100.00 region.
Resistance remains near 103.20 to 103.60 , an extended trade over 103.60 is friendly and augurs for a test of 104.75 and beyond towards 105.80 to 106.80
Traders should go long if a close over 103.20 occurs…
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes and be long.
May Cocoa
Resistance is at 847 tom 852 then 863 Beyond that sellers should appear near 877 to 882 and 907 to 915
Support is at 835 and 823 to 814 . Below that buyers should appear near 795 to 791.
Stay Tuned for Flashes.
The All Important USDA Quarterly Pig Crop was released after the Close Friday
June Cattle
Support is at 6922 to 6907 A close under 6907 is negative and augurs for a test of the 6837 to 6807. Traders can buy at 6837 and hold for higher prices.. Below that buyers should appear near 6757 to 6742 and the 6672 to 6657 region.
Resistance is at 6992 to 7002, a close over 7002 is friendly and indicates a test of 7077 to 7087 and eventually 7142 to 7172. Beyond that resistance should appear near 7212.
June Hogs
Support is at 7002 to 6992 Below that buyers should appear near 6937 to 6922. A close under 6922 augurs for a test of support near the 6837 to 6807 region. Under that support is at 6782 and the 6757 to 6742 region .. Traders can buy at 6757 and hold for higher prices..
Resistance should appear at 7077 to 7087. A close over 7087 is friendly and augurs for a test of 7142 to 7172 and eventually the 7242 to 7257 region..Beyond that sellers should appear near the 7327 to 7342 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 7087 occurs.
Support is at 8857 then 8812 . Traders can Buy at 8812 and hold for higher prices. Below that Buyers should appear near 8777 to 8762 region. Under that 8687 to 8657 offers support and should hold for a bit..Below that buyers should appear near the 8592 to 8557 region and 8497 to 8482…
Nearby Resistance is at 8932 to 8962 An extended trade over 8962 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9042 to 9062 and eventually the 9137 to 9157 region. Above that
A test of 9237 and eventually the 9317 to 9347 region is likely.. A close over 9347 augurs for a test of 9522 to 9542.
Traders Should Stay Tuned Updates for the Pork complex.
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.
Happy Trading
Sunday March 26, 2000
9: 52 AM
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Bi Weekly Investment Outlook ( BW )
Recommended open positions and Value 3-24-2000
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
2-13-2000 Value $ 55,000.00
2-27-2000 Value $ 59,066.80
3-12-2000 Value $ 63,730.30
3-24-2000 $ 69,409.10
Recommended open positions
Long June British pounds at 1.5934
Long May Wheat at 252
Morning Comments ( MC ) Value 3-24-2000
Recommended open positions :NONE
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/mcperf.htm
2-13-2000 Value $ 50,000.00
2-27-2000 Value $ 55,716.25
3-12-2000 Value $ 63,826.25
3-24-2000 $ 52,361.25
Index
Recommended open positions and Value 3-24-2000
2-13-2000 Value $ 150,455.70
2-24-2000 Value $ 158,205.70
3-12-2000 Value $ 167,205.70
3-24-2000 $ 135,355.70
Recommended Open Index Position 3-24-2000
Short June SP500 1494.50
Premier Open Pos and Value as of 3-24-2000
http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
2-09-1998 Value 101,863.95
2-23-1999 Value 404,088.95
Aug. 1 1999 Value 549,583.85
Aug 15 Value 583,476.55
Aug 28 Value 577,238.55
Sept 12 Value 593,734.25
Sept 24 Value 537,309.25
Oct 08 Value 601,099.25
Oct 23 Value 650,974.25
Nov 5 Value 691, 783.00
Nov 19 Value $ 685,829.25
Dec 04 Value $ 712,700.50
Dec 17 Value $ 737,898.00
Jan 1-2000 Value $ 741,034.25
1-13-2000 Value $ 776,191.75
1-27-2000 Value $ 769,104.25
2-13 2000 Value $ 803,392.25
2-27-2000 Value $ 784,172.25
3-12-2000 Value $ 821,000.25
3-24-2000 $ 771,287.75
Premier recommended open positions 3-24-2000
Long 10 SQ/ Short 10 SX –7.75 avg
Long 2 July Beans at 517 1/2
Long 2 Aug Beans 520 1/2
Short 2 Aug Bean 550 Calls 23 1/2
Long 7 May Bellies 9212 avg
Long 4 May Sugar 533
Short 4 June SP500 at 1502 Avg
Long 5 July hogs 6760
Long 5 May Cotton 6120
Starting Total Value Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 (BW only)
Combined Value Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95 (BW Only)
Combined Value Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05 (BW and Premier only)
Combined Value 12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15
Combined Value Feb 2000* $ 1,041,610.45 ( BW, MC, Premier only)
*Tracking Year Begins: Feb 13 ,2000 for BW, MC & Index. Feb 24 for Prem. Index program is new for yr. 2000
Combined Value Feb 27, 2000 $ 1,057,161.35
Current Total Value March 12, 2000 $ 1,115,762.50
Current Total Value March 24 ,2000 $ 1,028,413.80
Material Assumptions:
Beginning Value was established at $55,000 Feb. 12 1997.
Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Investment
Outlooks, Morning Comments, Index Flashes , Premier Flashes and updates that pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related Futures Contracts.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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