FuturesCom Investment Publications
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook, Sunday April 08, 2001

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Sunday, April 08, 2001

6:30 AM
Recommended Open Positions are at the end of the letter…Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates.

 

                 The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Economic food for thought…

Friday’s employment reports showed an unexpected job loss.. which is a negative for the economy.

 

A  negative, which in my opinion the market already has discounted over recent months. 

Also in the report there was an hourly earnings increase ,which some economists tend believe is inflationary.. well most economists are like weatherman paid to be wrong !

 

If the people who are working are making more  it can offset the spending of those who are losing jobs.. with virtually no impact on inflation as a whole! 

 

In fact generally speaking commodity prices show little or no inflation from year ago levels with signs of deflation in some areas.. 

 

Call me crazy but what does this all tell me ?

 

The Fed , in my opionion has plenty of room to be accommodating and is prepared to ease rates to foster job creation and maintain productivity gains in order to stop the economic slippery slide into recession and will eventually attempt to achieve a growth target

of  2 1/2 % by years end..

 

History in the U.S.has shown us more often than not, stock markets tend to exhibit

bullish tendencies when this occurs. 

 

Combine this with a stable spending environment by those consumers who are working, may equal a likelihood that corporate earnings may get better and do it faster than most expect as the slide into economic oblivion abates. 

 

A dish most analysts expect not to be served…

 

But one that may very well be served cold….

 

June SP500
Nearby Resistance is at 1150 then 1164 to 1169 and 1180.80  Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1192 to 1203 region. A close over 1203 is friendly and augurs for al test of  1217.5 and eventually the 1232 to 1238 region. Which we feel is more likely to occur in the near future than not… If it holds….Beyond that a trade towards 1268 to 1274 is likely..

 

Nearby Support should appear near 1136 to 1130.. Under that support is at  1115 then 1101 to 1096 and the 1082 region.. Traders who have ice water running through their veins can buy at 1082 for a bounce, risk a close under 1074 for three days in a row..Below that buyers should appear near 1068 to 1058..Under that 1036 to 1032 should contain more carnage if it occurs…

 

Aggressive Traders can go long if a close over 1217.5 occurs..

 

Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates

 

Dow Jones Industrial Avg.

Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9845 and 9921 to 9937 .. However an extended trading period over 9937 does indicate a test of 10,021 to 10,037 and more likely the 10155 region..Beyond that Sellers should appear near 10,320  to 10,360..

 

Support is at  9737 to 9706 and 9641 to 9625 then 9542 to 9525  ..Below that buyers should appear near 9347 to 9316

 

June Bonds

Resistance should appear near 104-26 then 105-07 and the 105-23 region , beyond that a test of 106-07 and the 106-24 region is likely. Above that resistance is at 107-17 and the 108-04 region.

 

Support is at 104-09 under that 103-17 should contain a decline . Traders can buy at 103-17 and risk a close under 102-23 for three days in a row.

 

 

The Frenzied Forex Front

 

June Japanese Yen

Support should appear near 8134 to 8119.. Below that buyers should appear near 8082 and the 8044 to 8029 region…. Traders can buy at 8083 and risk a close under 8028 for three days in a row ..  Below that support is at 7992 and the  7954 to 7939 region, which  should contain a decline..  

 

Nearby Resistance should appear near 8164 a close over 8164 augurs for a test of
8194 to 8223  and the 8300 to 8314 region. Beyond that a trade towards the 8391 to 8406 region is likely ..

 

 Traders should go long if a close over 8164 occurs..

 

June Euro FX

Nearby Support should appear near 8964 to 8934 and 8871 to 8856.. A Slip under augurs for a test of  support at 8777 to 8762 and eventually 8683 to 8668. Traders can buy at 8683 for a bounce risk a close under  8622 for three days in a row.. Under that buyers should appear near  the 8589 to 8560 region.. 

 

Nearby Resistance is at  the 9040 to 9060 region…Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9100 region..Beyond that 9140 to 9160 and 9235 offers resistance..Traders can sell at  9235 and hold for lower prices…

 

Traders can go short if a close under 9001 occurs..

 

Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Updates.

 

June Swiss Franc

Resistance should appear near the 5945 to 5957 region.  Above that  sellers should appear near 6023 to 6035…Traders can sell at 6022 and risk a close over 6035 for three days in a row.. Above that 6101 to 6113  offers resistance and should cap a rally..

 

Support should appear near 5912 , a close under augurs for a test of 5880 to 5855 and eventually the 5805 to 5792.. a close under 5792 is negative and augurs for a test of  the 5729 to 5716 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 5730 for a bounce risk a close under 5716 for three days in a row  Below that 5653 to 5640 should hold for a bit..

 

Stay tuned for Flashes...

 

Aggressive Traders can go short if a close under 5912 occurs..

 

June  British Pound
Support
should appear near 1.4210 to 1.4150, which should contain a decline for a bit

Failure there augurs for and eventual test of 1.3990.. Traders can buy at 1.3992 and hold for higher prices.. Below that 1.3830 to 1.3770 should contain a decline..

 

Resistance is at 1.4372 and 1.4426, beyond that sellers should appear near 1.4550 to 1.4590.  Traders can sell at 1.4550 and risk a close over 1.4590 for three days in a row..

 

Trade accordingly and stay tuned for flashes

 

June Canadian  Dollar
Support
should appear near the 6383 and the 6350 to 6337 region.. Traders can buy at 6351 and hold for higher prices.. Under that support is  at 6270 to 6257.

 

 

Resistance is at 6417 to 6430.  Beyond that a test of 6482 to 6509 is likely .. Above that sellers should appear near 6577 to 6591.

 

Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's  Forex Flashes 

 

 

                                                 Precious Metals

 

June Gold

Support  should appear near 259.2 then 256.8 to 255.2 and 251.9 to 251.1

Resistance is at 261.2 to 262.00   A close over 262.0 is friendly and augurs for a test of 266.3 to 267.2 and eventually 269, beyond that sellers should appear near 271.6 to 272.4

 

Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 262.0 occurs..

 

May  Copper
Support
is at 7420 to 7405 and 7340 to 7325  Below that 7170 to 7140 offers support.. 

 

Resistance should appear near 7580 to 7605, a close over 7605 is friendly and augurs for a test of 7675 to 7690 and eventually the 7760 to 7780 region

 

May Silver
Support  should appear near 431.5 to 430 and 425 to 422.5. Under that 418 to 416 should

Contain a decline..

Resistance is at 437 to 438.0. A close over 438.0 is friendly and augurs for a test of 442 to 444.5  and beyond to 4450 to 451.5 Beyond that sellers should appear near 457 to 458..

 

Traders should go long if a close over 438.0 occurs.

 

Trade Accordingly and  stay tuned for Flashes

 

The Exciting Energies

June Crude 
Nearby
Resistance
is at 2758 to 2775 and 2820 to 2828.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2874 to 2883..Above that resistance is at 2928 to 2937 and the 2974 to 2992 region. Traders can sell at 2974 and hold for lower prices. Risking a close over 3045 for three days in a row..Above that 3092 to 3102 offers resistance.

 

Support is at  2724 to 2716 and the 2672 to 2663 region  Under that buyers should appear near 2620 to 2612…. Traders can buy at 2620 for a bounce and risk  a close under 2612 for three days in a row  ..Below that support is at 2568 to 2553 and the 2519 to 2512 region..Below that  2469 to 2461 should contain a decline..

 

Aggressive traders can go short if a close under 2716 occurs..

 

Stay Tuned for Updates…

 

May Unleaded Gas
Support
should appear near 9640 to 9625 and 9545 to 9525. below that  support is at 9350 to 9315 and 9235 .. A close under 9235 is negative and indicates  a test of 9160 to 9140 and the 9060 to 9040 region is likely.. traders can buy at 9065 and hold for higher prices..

 

Resistance is at  9705 to 9740 and 9820 to 9835. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9920 to 9940.. Traders can sell at 9920 and risk a close over 1.0155 for three days in a row. .

 

May Heating Oil

Resistance is at 7325 to 7340 and the 7590 to 7600 region, above that sellers should appear near 76 75 to 7690 and 7760 to 7780. Traders can sell at 7755 and hold for lower prices, risk a close over 7865 for three days in a row 

 

Support is near 7255 to 7240 and 7170 to 7140 , a close under 7140 is negative and augurs for a test of  7090 to 7075 and 7005 to 6990. Below that support is at 6835 to 6810. Under that a test of  the  6755 to 6740 region is likely ..Below that  support is at 6675 to 6655 and the 6590 to 6577 should hold..  Traders can buy at 6590 for a bounce , risk 125 pts.

 

Traders should go short if a close under 7140 occurs..

 

Stay Tuned for Energy Updates

 

The Grand Grains

July Soybeans
Support is at  438.5 to 437 and 431.5 to 430 and 425 to 422.5. Under that 418 to 416 should contain a decline..

Resistance is at 442 to 444.5  and450 to 451.5 Beyond that sellers should appear near 457 to 458..

 

May Soy Meal
R
esistance
should appear near 155.2 and the 156.9 to 157.6 region.

Support is at 152.9 then 149.6 to 148.4 and 145.9 to 145.3.  

 

May Soybean Oil
Support
is near 1535 to 1529 and should  hold.  Below that support is at 1496 to 1484.

Resistance should appear near 1569 to 1576 and 1609 to 1615 beyond that sellers should appear near 1642 to 1655.

 

May Corn
Resistance should appear near 212 3/4 to 213 1/2 and the 217 to 218 1/2 region. 

Support  should appear near 208 3/4 to 208 and 204 1/4 to 203 1/2 under that

195 3/4 to 194 3/4 should hold..

 

July Wheat

Support should appear near 267 1/4 to 266 1/2 and 262 to 261 1/2 . traders can buy at 267 3/4 and risk a close under 261 for three days in a row ..Below that buyers should appear near 256 3/4 to 255 1/4..

 

Resistance is at 275 1/2 to 277 3/4 . Beyond that sellers should appear near 282 to 282 3/4

and 287 1/2 to 288 1/4.  Beyond that a test of 292 3/43 to 293 3/4 is likely..   

 

Trader should go long if a close over 277 3/4 occurs.

 

Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates in the Grain Markets

 

The Satisfying Softs

May Cotton

Nearby Support should appear near 4650 to 4635 then 4585 to 4570  region and the 4515 to 4505 region.. Below that  4445 to 4425 should contain a decline basis the close  Traders can buy at 4585 and risk a close under 4425 for three days in a row.. Under  that support is at 4380 to 4370 and 4315 to 4305.

 

Resistance is at 4695 to 4720 then 4775 to 4785 and the 4845 to 4855 region. A close over 4855 is friendly and augurs for a test of 4915 to 4925 and the  4970 to 4995 region..Beyond that a test of 5035 to 5065 is likely…. A close over 5065 is friendly and indicates a test of 5125 to 5140 and the 5200 to 5215 region..

 

Traders should go long if a close over 4855 occurs..

 

 

May Coffee
Nearby S
upport
is near the 5805 to 5790 region..  Under that a test of 5730 to 5715 is likely.. below that buyers should appear near 5655 to 5640 and the 5575 to 5555 region.. Traders can buy at 5580 for a turn higher, risk a close under 5550 for three days in a row

Below that 5430 to 5420 should contain a further decline for a bit..

 

Nearby Resistance should appear near 5855 to 5880 and 5945 to 5955.. a close over 5955 is friendly and augurs for a test of  6020 to 6035 and 6100 to 6115..An extended trade over 6115 indicates  a trade towards  6250 to 6270. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6335 to 6355 and the 6415 to 6430 region…

 

July Sugar
Resistance
is at 791 to 795 and 814 to 823. Beyond that sellers should appear near 847 to 852 and the 877 to 882 region. .. Traders can sell at 847 and risk a close over 882 for three days in a row

 

Support should appear near 767 to 763 . Under that support should appear near 739 to 735.  and 712 to 704.. Traders can buy at 712 and hold for higher prices..  risk a close under 682 for three days in row…

 

Trade Accordingly

 

July Cocoa
Support
is at to 1005 to 1000 then 986 and the 972 to 968 region..Traders can buy at 986 and risk a close under 968 for three days in a row. 

 

Resistance should appear near the 1032 to 1036 and  the 1058 to 1068 region..Above that 1096 to 1101 should cap a rally ..traders can sell at 1058 for a turn lower ..risk a close over 1101 for three days in a row.  Beyond resistance is at 1130 to 1136 and the 1164 to 1169 region. 

 

The Lively Livestock

 

June Cattle
Support
is near the 7255 to 7240 region. A Slip under augurs for a test of the  7170 to 7140.

Below that 7092 to 7072 should hold..

Nearby Resistance is at 7417 to 7432  then 7487 to 7512 and the 7587 to 7602 region.

 

June Hogs
Nearby Support
is at 7087 to 7072 . A slip under augurs for a test of 7002 to 6992 ..Under that support is at 6922 to 6907 and the 6837 to 6807 region. Below that Buyers should appear near 6757 to 6742 .A close under 6742 is negative and augurs for a test of 6672 to 6657 and the 6512 to 6487 region. Traders can buy at 6517 and hold for higher prices..

 

Nearby resistance is at  the 7172. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7327 to 7342 and the 7412 to 7427 region…Above  that a test of 7487 to 7512 and the 7587 to 7602 region is likely…

 

May Bellies

Support is at the 9062 to 9037 region. Below that  Buyers should appear near 8967 and the 8777 to 8762 region.. Traders who sleep on Bed of Nails can buy at 8777 for a good bounce and hold for higher prices..Under that support is at 8682 to 8667 and the 8587 to 8562 region.. Below that 8497 to 8482 should hold..  ..

 

Nearby resistance is at 9137 to 9162 and 9237.. beyond that a test of 9317 to 9347 is likely a close over 9347 is friendly and augurs for a test of  9422 to 9447 and the 9527 to 9542 region..  Beyond resistance is near 9707 to 9737.  

Stay tuned for Livestock BW Update and Flashes

 

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for

 

Happy Trading !

Bill 

Sunday April 08, 2001

1:00 PM

 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

 

Copyright @ 1996 - 2001 FuturesCom investment Publications All Rights Reserved

FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.

 

Bi Weekly Investment Outlook(BW)
Performance Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
Recommended Open positions as of 4-6-2001:

Long  May Silver 444.0

Long  June SP500 1169.20

Long  May Soybeans 442
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Morning Comments ( MC)

2001 Performance Archives http://www.futurescom.com/mcper01.html
Recommended Open positions as of 4-6-2001: NONE

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2001 Index Program
Performance Archiveshttp://www.futurescom.com/index01.htm
Recommended Open positions as of 04-6-2001
Long 2 June SP500 1134.50

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Premier Service Flashes

Performance Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm        

Recommended Open Positions as of 4-6-2001

Long 5 May Beans 436 1/4

Long 5 May Silver 436.5

Long 5 May Coffee 6025

Long 20 May Copper 7865 avg

Long 10 June Gold 262

Long 10 July Hogs 6807 avg
Long 5 May Bellies 9330

Short 10 June EC 8855
Long 10 June Yen 8137 avg

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