FuturesCom Investment Publications
Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis of Futures Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook (BW) Sunday May 21, 2000
Bonds.. SP500.. Forex.. Precious Metals.. Energies..Grains.. Livestock.. Softs
7690
Courage in a Speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind
Sunday May 21, 2000
7:00 AM
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
June SP500
Resistance remains near 1418 to 1421. Above that sellers should appear near 1427.10 and 1432.70. However a close over 1421 is friendly and augurs for a trade towards 1437. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1448 to 1451 then 1453 to1456 and the 1459 to 1461.20 region. A close over 1459 is friendly and augurs for a likely test of 1471.5 and beyond towards the 1484 to 1490 region, which we feel is more likely
than not to occur.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1494.60 to 1496 and the 1500.10 region. Above that resistance should surface near 1512.5 and 1529 to 1536
Traders can sell at 1532.40 and hold for lower prices..
Support is at 1414.20 then 1410.50 to 1408 Under that support should appear near 1399 to 1395.20 and the 1383 to 1380 region.. Traders can buy at 1380.10 and hold for higher prices.. Below that 1377 should contain an early decline basis the close. Under that Support is at 1364.70 to 1361.50. Below that buyers should appear near 1346 to 1334 and 1322. Under that 1310 to 1304 should contain any decline…
Traders should go long if close over 1418.00 occurs.
Trade Accordingly..
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Resistance should appear near 10,630 to 10,680. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10,757 and 10,820. Above that sellers should appear near 10,960 to 11,010.
Support should appear near 10580 then 10,510 to 10,475 and10,402 . Under that 10,360 to 10,320 should contain a decline for a bit, below that support should appear near 10,257 and 10,155 then 10,0035 to 10,0021.
Cash NASDAQ
Resistance is at 3425 to 3443 , a close over 3443 is friendly and augurs for a test of 3495 to 3503 and most likely the 3553 to 3563 region, where sellers should cap an early rally for a bit. Above that resistance should appear near 3613 to 3623 and 3663 to 3682
Support remains at 3386 to 3377. A slip under augurs for a test of 3353 then 3328 to 3319. Below that support is at 3270 to 3261 and the 3213 to 3194 region which should contain a decline for a bit. Below that buyers should appear near 3157 to 3148 and
the 3102 to 3092 region.
Trade Accordingly
June NASDAQ 100
Nearby Support is at 3270 to 3261 and 3237. Under that buyers should appear near 3213 to 3204 and the 3168 to 3148 region, which should stop a decline for a bit… Below that buyers should surface near 3102 to 3092 and 3065. Under that 2937 to 2928 should hold.
Nearby Resistance is at 3319 to 3328 and 3376 to 3386 region. A close over 3386 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of the 3425 to 3443 region.. Above that good sellers should appear near 3484 to 3503 and cap a rally for a bit. Beyond that a test of 3613 to 3623 and beyond is likely.
Trade Accordingly..
June Bonds
Support should appear near 92-23, a close under 92-23 augurs for a test of 92-00 then 91-24 and 91-20 to 91-16. Traders can buy at 9-124 for a good turn higher, risk a close under 91-02 for 2 in a row.
Resistance is at 93-13 and 93-27 then 94-05 to 94-12 , beyond that sellers should appear near 94-22 , which should cap a rally for, a bit.. A close over 94-22 is friendly and augurs for a test of 95-13 and 95-26.
Trade accordingly…
The Frenzied Forex Front
Support should appear near 9388. Traders can buy at 9388 and risk a close under 9316 for three days in a row. Under that buyers should appear near 9347 and 9316 to 9304.
Below that support is at 9457 to 9237 and the 9156 to 9140 region.
Resistance remains near 9429 to 9445, a close over 9445 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9526 to 9542. Beyond that a test of 9625 to 9641 and beyond towards the 9707 to 9737 region is likely to occur
* Traders should go long if a close over 9445 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes and Updates
Resistance remains near 5855 to 5880. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5877 and 5912..Beyond that resistance is at 5945 to 5957 and 5995 Then 6023 to 6035 Traders can sell at 5994 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6035 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 5805 to 5792 then 5764 and the 5740 to 5729 region. Under that buyers should appear near 5716 then 5656 to 5650.
Stay tuned for Flashes...
June British Pound
Support should appear near 1.4840. Under that support is at 1.4786 and 1.4714.
Below that a test of 1.4634 and the 1.4590 to 1.4530 region is likely.
Resistance is at 1.4900 then 1.4960. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1.5078 and the 1.5126 region. Traders can sell at 1.5124 for a turn lower, risk a close over
1.5126 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes.
June Canadian Dollar
Nearby Support is at 6673 to 6659. Traders can buy at 6673 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6659 for three days in a row. Under that buyers should appear near 6636 to 6626 and the 6591 to 6577 region
Resistance is at 6707 to 6712 then 6741 and the 6748 to 6755 region. A close over 6755 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 6777 to 6782 . Traders can sell at 6779 for a turn lower and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near
6809 to 6836.
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex flashes
Precious Metals
June Gold
Support is at 274.1 should contain a decline basis the close. Under that support is at 272.4 to 271.6 and the 269 region. Below that 266.2 to 266.1 should contain any decline.
Resistance is at 275.8 to 22.5. A close over 277.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 282 to 282.8.
Aug Gold
Support is at 276.4 then 275.8. Under that 274.9 to 274.1 should contain a decline basis the close.. Traders can buy at 274.40 and hold for higher prices.. Risk a close under 271.5 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 277.5 then 279.7 to 280.10. Beyond that sellers should appear near 282 to 282.8 . A close over 282.8 is friendly and augurs for a test of 285.1 to 285.3 and the 287.4 to 288.3 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 277.5 occurs.
July Copper
Support is at 8390 and 8315 to 8270..8165 for three days in a row. Under that support should appear near 8225 to 8190 then 8165.. Below that buyers should appear near 8135 to 8115 then 8045 to 8025.
Resistance should appear near 8485 to 8500 then 8560 to 8590 and 8620.
Beyond that a test of 8665 to 8685 is likely. Beyond that resistance is at 8760 to 8775 and 8855.
July Silver
Support should appear at 499.5 to 497..Below that buyers should appear near 492.5 to 491.5 which should contain a decline basis the close for a bit. Traders can buy at 492.5 and hold for higher prices. Under that support should appear near 485.5 to 484.5
Resistance is at 503.5 to 506.5 and 512 to 514. A close over 506.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 520 to 521.5 and the 525.5 to 528.5 region
Traders should go long if a close over 506.5 occurs
Stay tuned for Flashes...
The Exciting Energies
July Crude
Resistance is at 2990 then 3036 to 3035 , beyond sellers should appear near 3092 to 3102. Above that resistance is at 3148 to 3157 and the 3194 to 3213 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 2972 occurs
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned For Flashes
July Unleaded Gas
Support should appear near 9237, a slip under indicates a test of 9160 o 9140 under that buyers should appear near 9110 and the 8990 and the 8965 to 8935 region.
Under that 8780 to 8760 offers support. Traders can buy at 8770 for a bounce and risk 125 pts.
Resistance 9315 to 9350 region.. High Risk traders can sell at 9315 and hold for lower prices. Above that resistance is at 9429 to 9449 and 9490. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9526 to 9542 and the 9610 region.
July Heating Oil
Resistance is at 7587 to 7601 then 7675 to 7682 , Above that sellers should appear near the 7763 to 7793 region. Beyond that resistance should appear near 7835 to 7865
And the 7935 to 7960 region.
Support is 7513 to 7486. Under that Buyers should appear near 7430 to 7410
and 7365 to 7325. Below that 7255 to 7240 should contain a decline over the near term…Under that buyers should appear near 7170 to 7145. Traders can buy at 7175 and hold for higher prices. Risk a close under 7140 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly. and Stay tuned for Flashes
The Grand Grains
Support should appear near 550 1/2 to 548 3/4.Under that support is at 544 to 541 and the 535 1/2 to 534 1/4.. Below that buyers should appear near 528 1/2 to 525 1/2
And the 501 1/2 to 517 region. Traders can buy at 521 1/2 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 555 1/2 to 558 1/2 then 564 to 566 1/2. Above that sellers should appear near the 572 to 572 3/4 region. A close over 572 3/4 is Friendly and augurs for a test of 579 to 580 1/2 then 583 to 585. Beyond that a tap of the 594 to 595 3/4 region is likely to occur
Traders should go long if a close over 557 1/2 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes
July Soybean Meal
Nearby support should appear near the 182.2 to 180.8. A close under 180.8 is negative and indicates a test of 179.6 to 177.5. Under that buyers should appear near 173.8 to 173.1.. Traders can buy at 173.8 and risk a close under 168.9 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 184 then 185.8 to 187.6, a close over 186.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 190.2 to 190.9 and the 194.6 to 195.3 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 186.5 occurs.
July SoyBean Oil
Support is at 1696 to 1689. Below that buyers should appear near the 1655 to 1642 region and contain a decline for bit… Traders can buy at 1655 and hold for higher prices.
Under that support is at 1615 to 1609
Resistance should appear near 1731 to 1738. Beyond that resistance is at 1774 to 1780 and 1808 to 1822.
July Wheat
Support is at 273 1/2 and the 272 1/2 to 271 1/4 region. Under that support is at 267 1/2 to 266 1/4 where it should hold basis the close Traders can buy at 269 3/4 and hold for higher prices.. Below that support is at 262 1/2 to 261 1/4.
Resistance is at 277 1/2. A close over 277 1/2 id friendly and augurs for a test of 282 to 282 3/4 and most likely the 287 1/2 to 288 1/4 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 277 1/2 occurs.
July Corn
Resistance should appear near 241 to 242 1/2 then 245 to 246 3/4. Beyond that a
test of the 251 to 252 region is likely.
Support should appear near 238 3/4.Traders can buy at 238 3/4 and risk a close under 235 1/2 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 237 to 235 1/2. Under that support should appear near 232 1/4 to 231 1/2.
Traders should go long if a close over 243 occurs.
Trade Accordingly.
July Cotton
Support should appear near 6115 to 6100. Under that buyers should appear near 6075 then 6035 to 6020. Traders can buy at 6035 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 5960 to 5945 then 5880 to 5855. Under that 5805 to 5790 should hold.
Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 then 6255 to 6270. A close over 6270 is friendly and augurs for a test of then 6335 to 6350 region and eventually 6415 to 6430 then
6485 to 6490.
Traders should go long if a close over 6190 occurs..
Trade Accordingly
July Sugar
Support is at 712 to 704. A close under 704 is negative and augurs for a test of 686 to 682 then 671. Below that support should appear near 661 to 656. Which should contain a decline basis the close for a bit..
Resistance is at 724, Beyond that sellers should appear near 735 to 738 and 746. Above that sellers should appear near 763 to 767 and the 791 to 795 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 704 occurs.
Trade Accordingly
July Coffee
Support is at 9735 to 9705 then 9640 to 9625 and 9590 . Traders can buy at 9590 and hold for higher prices. Below that 9540 to 9525 should contain a decline…Basis the close.. Under that buyers should appear near the 9445 to 9425 region. Below that support should appear near 9345 to 9315 and the 9235 to 9195 region. Under that 9060 to 9045 should hold.
Resistance should appear near 9820 to 9840, a close over 9840 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9920 to 9935 and the 100.20 to 100.50 region. Above a test of 101.05 to 101.35 is likely..Beyond that sellers should appear near 103.20 to 103.60 , an extended trade over 103.60 is friendly and augurs for a test of 104.75 and eventually the 105.80 to 106.80 region….
Traders should go long if a close over 98.40 occurs…
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes.
July Cocoa
Resistance is at 877 to 882 then 907 to 912.
Support is at 852 to 847 and 835 under that buyers should appear near 823 to 814.
Stay Tuned for Flashes.
Aug Cattle
Support is near the 6757 to 6742 region . A close under 6742 is negative and indicates a test of 6672 to 6657 and the 6592 to 6577 region.
Resistance is at 6807 to 6837, a close over 6837 is friendly and indicates a test of 6902 to 6922, traders can sell at 6922 and risk a close over 6957 for three days in a row . Beyond that resistance should appear near 6987 to 7002.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 6742 occurs
USDA Cold Storage Figures for April were released on Friday and deemed neutral to negative for Hogs and Friendly for Bellies.
Traders Should Stay Tuned Updates for the Pork complex.
July Hogs
Support is at 6755 to 6742. Hearty traders can buy at 6757 for a turn higher , risk a close under 6652 for three days in a row. Under that buyers should appear near 6672 to 6657. Below that support should appear near 6592 to 6577 and 6512. Under that buyers should appear near 6432 to 6417.
Resistance should appear at 6807 to 6837 and 6867. A close over 6837 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6907 to 6917 and 6952. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6987 to 7002 Beyond that resistance should appear near 7072 to 7087.Beyond that sellers should appear near 7142 to 7172.
Traders should go long if a close over 6837 occurs
Support is at 8667 then 8627. Below that buyers should appear near 8587 to 8557 then 8502 to 8487 and 8467. Under that support should appear near the 8407 to 8387 region. Below that 8317 to 8297 should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear at 8682 then 8762 to 8777, a close over 8682 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8857 to 8872 then 8932 to 8962. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9037 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region..
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.
Happy Trading
Sunday May 21,2000
2: 39 PM
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Bi Weekly Investment Outlook ( BW )
Recommended open positions and Value 5-20-2000
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
2-13-2000 Value $ 55,000.00
2-27-2000 Value $ 59,066.80
3-12-2000 Value $ 63,730.30
3-24-2000 Value $ 69,409.10
4-07-2000 Value $ 62,140.20
4-20-2000 Value $ 73,984.10
5-05-2000 Value $ 65,494.15
5-20-2000 Value $ 71,574.35
Recommended open positions:
Long 2 July Bellies Avg 9167
Long July Coffee 100.45
Short July Sugar at 671
Long July Silver 514.5
Long June Gold 274.3
Long July Copper 8510
Morning Comments ( MC ) Value 5-20-2000
Recommended open positions :
Long July Pork Bellies 9237
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/mcperf.htm
2-13-2000 Value $ 50,000.00
2-27-2000 Value $ 55,716.25
3-12-2000 Value $ 63,826.25
3-24-2000 Value $ 52,361.25
4-07-2000 Value $ 55,572.50
4-20-2000 Value $ 55,845.00
5-05-2000 Value $ 58,606.40
5-20-2000 value $ 55,900.15
Index
http://www.futurescom.com/indexfl.htm
Recommended Open positions and Value 5-20-2000
Open Index Position. NONE
2-13-2000 Value $ 150,455.70
2-24-2000 Value $ 158,205.70
3-12-2000 Value $ 167,205.70
3-24-2000 Value $ 135,355.70
4-07-2000 Value $ 158,305.70
4-20-2000 Value $ 159.005.70
5-05-2000 Value $ 161,480.70
5-19-2000 Value $ 177,605.70
Premier Value as of 5-20-2000
http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
2-09-1998 Value 101,863.95
2-23-1999 Value 404,088.95
Aug. 1 1999 Value 549,583.85
Aug 15 Value 583,476.55
Aug 28 Value 577,238.55
Sept 12 Value 593,734.25
Sept 24 Value 537,309.25
Oct 08 Value 601,099.25
Oct 23 Value 650,974.25
Nov 5 Value 691, 783.00
Nov 19 Value $ 685,829.25
Dec 04 Value $ 712,700.50
Dec 17 Value $ 737,898.00
Jan 1-2000 Value $ 741,034.25
1-13-2000 Value $ 776,191.75
1-27-2000 Value $ 769,104.25
2-13 2000 Value $ 803,392.25
2-27-2000 Value $ 784,172.25
3-12-2000 Value $ 821,000.25
3-24-2000 Value $ 771,287.75
4-07-2000 Value $ 841,609.25
4-20-2000 Value $ 868,714.25
5-05-2000 Value $ 901,741.25
5-20-2000 Value $ 895,394.25
Recommended Positions
Spread : Long 15 Aug Beans / Short 15 Nov Beans avg -8 cents
Long 4 Aug Hogs 6897.5 Avg
Long 4 July Coffee 100.05
Long 5 July Silver 507.5
Short 5 July Sugar 646
Long 5 June Canadian Dollars 6726
Long 2 July Bellies 8680
Long 5 June Gold 274.3
Combined Value:
Starting Total Value Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 (BW only)
Combined Value Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95 (BW Only)
Combined Value Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05 (BW and Premier only)
Combined Value 12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15 (BW, MC, Premier)
Combined Value Feb 2000* $ 1,041,610.45 ( BW, MC, Premier)
*Tracking Year Begins: Feb 13 ,2000 for BW, MC & Index. Feb 24 for Prem. Index program is new for yr. 2000
Combined Value Feb 27, 2000 $ 1,057,161.35
Combined Value March 12, 2000 $ 1,115,762.50
Combined Value March 24 ,2000 $ 1,028,413.80
Combined Value April 9,2000 $ 1,117,627.65
Combined Value April ,20 2000 $ 1,157,549.05
Combined value May 05, 2000 $ 1,187,322.50
Current Combined Value May 20, 2000 $ 1,200.474.45
Material Assumptions:
FuturesCom’s Tracking Begins and Ends during February . Starting Value
was established at $55,000 Feb. 12 1997.
Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Investment
Outlooks, Morning Comments, Index Flashes , Premier Flashes and updates that pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related Futures Contracts.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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