FuturesCom
Investment Publications
Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis
of Futures Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook (BW)
Saturday June 17, 2000
Bonds.. SP500.. Forex.. Precious Metals.. Energies..Grains.. Livestock..
Softs
7690 Rockport Circle Lake Worth Florida 33467 Voice 561-433-2995 Fax 561-433-9243 http://www.futurescom.com
"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--" Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Saturday
June 17, 2000
5:00
AM
The Sensational Stock and
Bond Markets
Sept
SP500
Resistance is
near1490. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1496 and the 1497.90 region. A
close over 1996 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1512.5 then 1523.50 and
the 1529 to 1535 region Beyond that resistance should appear near 1545.70 then
1552 and the 1569 to 1576 region.
Support
is at 1484 to 1480.10 and 1471.50 and the 1459 to 1456 region. Under that buyers should appear near 1453 to
1450.10 BW Traders can buy at 1456 and hold for higher prices.. Below that
support should appear near 1437
Aggressive BW Traders should go long if close over
1490.00 occurs.
Stay
Tuned for Updates
Trade
Accordingly..
Sept NASDAQ 100
Nearby Support is
at 3806 to 3795 and 3743 to 3736 and 3710 Traders can buy at 3712 and hold for higher prices.. Under that buyers
should appear near 3683 to 3663 and 3623 to 3598, which should stop a decline for a bit… Below that buyers should
surface near 3443 to 3425 . Under that 3386 to 3377 should hold.
Nearby Resistance is
at 3858 to 3867.. A close over 3867 is
friendly and augurs for an eventual test of the 3909 to 3929 region Where
sellers should appear and cap a rally for a bit. Beyond that a test of 4046 to
4056 and beyond towards the 4096 to 4120 region is likely. Above that 4163 to 4183 offers resistance
Traders should go
long if a close over 3867 occurs.
Dow
Jones Industrial Avg.
Resistance
should appear near 10,475 and 10,510 beyond that a test of 10,580
to10,630 and 10,680 is likely.
Support should appear near10,402 . Under that 10,360 to 10,320 should contain a
decline
Cash NASDAQ
Resistance is at 3867 , a close
over 3867 is friendly and augurs for a test of 3909 to 3929 and most likely the
3982 to 3992 region, where sellers
should cap an early rally for a bit.
Above that resistance should appear
near 4046 to 4056 and 4110 to 4120
Beyond that a test of
the 4163 to 4183 region is likely to occur. Above that resistance is near 4238
to 4249 then 4304 to 4315.
Support should appear
near 3858 then 3832 and 3806 to 3795 . Under that buyers should be evident at
3743 to 3736 and 3682 to 3663 . Below
that support is at 3563 to 3553 and the 3503 to 3493 region which should
contain a decline for a bit. Below that buyers should appear near 3443 and
3386.
Trade Accordingly
Sept Bonds
Support should appear
near 97-08 then 96-28 . Traders can buy at 96-29 for a good turn higher, risk a
close under 96-07 for 2 days in a row.
Under that 95-26 to 95-18 should contain a decline. Below that Buyers should
appear near 95-04 and the 94-26 to 94-18 region.
Resistance is
at 98-05 then 98-16 , which should cap
a rally for, a bit.. A close over
98-16 is friendly and
augurs for a test of 99-22.
Point of note.. one
year ago the fed started raising rates.. and since then ‘All Eyes have been on
the Fed, traders have been waiting to
take action only on Fed news.. In my opinion very few traders are actually
watching what the mkt is telling them..
What I am trying to
say is that , with every bit of economic date there is a an opinion
and prediction.. as
if one can make an assessment of a mkt when a news item comes
out. NOT LIKELY In my opinion that is impossible and
detrimental to your trading health..
One must make a
decision and trade through the news.. We are trading Futures aren’t we ?… for
example .. at the end of June last year , the current Bond contract was valued
at 94-20… so with all the worries and negative opinions by the economists this
year , a year has passed and we are
higher..?
This tells me the
Bond mkt likes the Fed action and actually feels comfortable and is
optimistic that it is achieving it’s
goals over the Long term.. Hike or no Hike the Sept bonds are higher now than
we were a year ago !!..
Curious that you
won’t here this kind if analysis on CNBC or in the News..
I am not making a
prediction on Bonds , all I am saying
one needs to look at all aspects of the mkt.. The ‘News’ only caters to your
day-to-day sizzle so to speak…
I think I will take
this up with the CNBC Bond analyst when I go to Chicago at the end of the
Month.. whom I have known for close
enough for Twenty Years to his wedding
way back when..
The Frenzied Forex Front
Support should appear
near 9542 to 9526 under that buyers should appear near
9445 to 9429 then
9377.
Resistance should
appear near 9625 to 9642 and 9671 a
close over 9671 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 9706 to 9737 region .
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes and Updates
Resistance remains
near 6257 to 6270 beyond that sellers should appear near 6337 to 6350. Traders can sell at 6334 for a
turn lower, risk a close over 6350for three days in a row. Above that resistance should appear near
6417 to 6432.
Support should appear
near 6223, a close under 6223 augurs for a test of 6190 to 6165 then 6113 and most likely 6077 and the 6035
to 6023 region where good buyers should appear.
Traders should go
short if a close under 6223 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes...
Sept British Pound
Support should appear
near 1.5124.. Traders can buy at 1.5126 and risk a close under 1.5056 for three
days in a row.. Under that support is at 1.5058 and the 1.4960 to 1.4900 region below that support is at 1.4840
and 1.4714.
Resistance is
at 1.5290 to 1.5350 then 1.5690 to
1.5760 .. Traders can sell at 1.5690 and hold for lower prices..
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes.
Sept Canadian Dollar
Nearby
Support is at 6781 then 6755
to 6741 then 6707 . Traders can buy at 6782 for a turn higher, risk a close
under 6741 for three days in a row. Under that buyers should appear near 6673
to 6659.
Resistance is
at 6836 to 6845 then 6858 to 6871 and
the 6906 to 6922 reigion
Trade Accordingly and
Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex
flashes
Precious
Metals
Aug Gold
Support is at 290.1 then 288.3 to 287.2 and 285.1. Under that support is
at 282.8 to 282.1 and the 279.5 region
Resistance is at 292.8 to 293.7. Above that sellers should appear near 297.2
to 299
and 303
to 304.5.
Sept Copper
Support is at 8225 to
8195. Under that support should appear near 8135 to 8110 then 8035. Traders can buy at 8135 for a turn higher , risk a close under
7930 for 3 days in a row. Below that
buyers should appear near 7865 to 7835.
Resistance should
appear near 8315 and 8390 to 8405. Beyond that resistance is at 8485 to 8500
and 8565 to 8590. Above that a test of 8665 to 8685 is likely..
Sept Silver
Support should appear
at 512 then 506.5 to 503.5, traders can buy at 507 and hold for higher
prices.. Below that support is at 499.5
to 497.. Under that buyers should appear near 492.5 to 491.5, which should
contain a decline basis the close for, a bit.
Resistance is at 514. A close over 506.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 520 to
521.5 then 525.5 to 528.5 region and
eventually the 541 to 543 region…
if it holds
Traders should go long if a close over 514.5 occurs
Stay tuned for Flashes...
The Exciting Energies
Aug Crude
Resistance is
at 3036 to 3045, Traders can sell at 3035 and risk a close over 3092 for three
days in a row.. Beyond sellers should appear near 3072 and the 3092 to 3102 region. Above that resistance
is at 3123 to 3130 then 3148 to 3157
and the 3194 to 3213 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3261 to
3270.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned For Updates
Aug Unleaded Gas
Support should appear near 9920 and 9835 to 9820..Under that buyers
should appear near 9740 to 9707 and the 9645 to 9620 region. Under that 9545 to 9520 offers support.
Below that 9345 to
9315 offers support.
Resistance should appear near 1.0020 to 1.0035 and 1.0135 to 1.0155
beyond that 1.0235 should cap rally High Risk traders can sell at 1.0235 and
hold for lower prices. Above that resistance should appear near 1.0470 then
1.0580 to 1.0630 and 1.0680. Above that sellers should appear near 1.0820 and
the 1.0960 to 1.1105 region.
Aug Heating Oil
Resistance is at 7485 to 7515 and 7587 to 7601 then 7675 to 7682. Above that sellers should appear near the
7763 to 7793 region. Beyond that resistance should appear near 7835 to 7865
Beyond that sellers should appear near the 7935 to 7960 region.
Support is near 7430
to 7410 and 7365 to 7325. Below that 7255 to 7240 should contain a decline over
the near term…Under that buyers should appear near 7170 to 7145 and the 7088 to
7074 region.
Stay tuned for BW Energy Updates
The Grand Grains
Support should appear
503 and 499. Traders can buy at 499 3/4 and risk a close under 492 for three
days in a row. Below that support is at 495 and 492 then 485 3/4 to 484
Resistance is
at 506 1/2 then 509 Above that sellers should appear near the
512 to 515 region. A close over 515 3/4 is Friendly and augurs
for a test of 520 to 521 then 528 and
534 to 535 3/4
Traders should go
long if a close over 515 3/4 occurs.
Stay tuned for
Flashes
Support should appear
near 499 to 497 and 485.
Resistance is
at 503 3/4 to 506 . Above that sellers should appear near the 512 3/4 to 515
3/4 region . A close over 515 3/4 is
Friendly and augurs for a test of 521 then 525
Traders should go
long if a close over 515 3/4 occurs.
July Soybean Meal
Support should appear near 169.6 to 168.9 then 165.5
to 164.2.
Resistance is
at 173.1 to 173.8 and the177.4 to 178
region.
July SoyBean Oil
Support is near 1642. Under that support is at 1615 to 1609
and the
1576 to 1569 region
Resistance should
appear near 1655 and 1672 then 1689 to
1696 and 1731 to 1738
July Corn
Resistance should appear near 208 to 209 1/2 the 212 to 213 1/2
Support should appear 204 1/4 to 203 then 199 3/4 to 198 1/2
July Wheat
Support is at 262 1/2 to 260 3/4 under that support is at 256 3/4 to
255
Resistance is at 266 1/2 to 267 3/4 , beyond that sellers should appear
near 272 and the 275 3/4 to 277 1/2 region
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates in the Grain
Markets
Dec Cotton
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023 and the 5955 to 5940 region
which should hold for a bit …Aggressive
traders can buy at 5945 and hold for higher prices.. Under that support is at
5880 to 5855 and the 5805 to 5790 region.
Resistance is at 6113. A close
over 6115 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6165 to 6190 and eventually the 6255 to 6270 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 6115 occurs..
Trade
Accordingly
Trade
Accordingly
Sept Coffee
Support is at 8935..Below
that support should appear near 8775 to 8765 and 8690 to 8665 Under that buyers should appear near 8495
and the 8405 to 8390 region.
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9165 then 9235, a close over 9235
is friendly and augurs for a test of
9315 to 9345. Above a test of 9525 to 9540 is likely.
Traders should go
long if a close over 9235 occurs…
Oct Sugar
Support is at 804. A close under 804 is negative and augurs for
a test of 795 to 791 then 779. Below
that support should appear near 767 to 763 and the 738 to 735 region.
Resistance is at 824, Beyond that sellers should appear near 835 and
847 to 852
Above that sellers should appear near 867 and the 887 to 882 region.
Sept Cocoa
Resistance is at 907 to 912 then 932 to 941 and the 968 to
972 region
Support is at 882 to 887 then 852 to 847 and 835 under that buyers
should appear
near 823 to 814.
Aug Cattle
Support is near the 6757 to 6742 region . A close under 6742 is
negative and indicates a test of 6672 to 6657. Traders can buy at 6672 and gold for higher prices under that support is
at 6592 to 6577.
Resistance is
at 6837, a close over 6837 is friendly
and indicates a test of 6902 to 6922, traders can sell at 6922 and risk a close
over 6957 for three days in a row . Beyond that resistance should appear near
6987 to 7002.
July Hogs
Resistance should
appear at 6992 to 7007 and 7072 to 7087.Beyond that sellers should appear near
7142 to 7172. Traders can sell at 7147 for a turn lower.. Risk a close over
7182 for three days in a row., Beyond that sellers should appear near 7242 to
7257
then 7327 to 7342.
Support is at 6957.
Below that support should appear near
6922 to 6907 and 6872. Traders can buy at 6907 and risk a close under 6802 for
tow days in a row. Below that buyers
should appear near 6757 to 6742 then 6677,
Support is a 8667
Below that buyers should appear near 8627 then 8587 to 8557.. Traders can buy
at 8557 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 8502 to 8487 Under that support should appear near the 8407 to 8387 region.
Below that 8317 to 8297 should contain a decline.
Resistance should
appear at 8757 then 8762 to 8777, a close over 8777 is friendly and augurs for
a test of 8932 to 8962 and Beyond
towards 9037 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region. Where sellers should
appear, beyond that a test of 9237 is
likely.
Traders should go
long if a close over 8777 occurs
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are
built for.
Happy Trading
Sunday June 17 ,2000
5: 35 PM
THIS
PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS
ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY
DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A
HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS.
SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED
TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK
DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All
Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission
errors.
FuturesCom
Investment Publications
Performance
and Open Positions as of 6-16-2000
Bi Weekly
Investment Outlook(BW) 2000 tracking year (begins in Feb)
Value as
of 6-16 $84,965.55
Tracking Year
to Date + 29,965.55 ( + 55 %)
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
BW Recommended open positions: None
2-13-2000
Value $
55,000.00 tracking year starting value
2-27-2000
Value $
59,066.80
3-12-2000 Value $ 63,730.30
3-24-2000 Value $ 69,409.10
4-07-2000 Value $ 62,140.20
4-20-2000 Value $ 73,984.10
5-05-2000 Value $ 65,494.15
5-20-2000 Value $ 71,574.35
6-02-2000 Value $ 84,691.80
6-16-2000 Current Value $
84,965.55
BW
Recommended Open positions
Long July Soybeans 531 3/4
Long Aug Soybeans 532
Long July
Wheat 269 1/2
Long July
Soy Meal 178.7
Long July Coffee 9240
Long SEPT Yen 9575
Morning
Comments ( MC ) Value 6-16-2000
Value as of
6-16 $56,723.65
Tracking Year
to Date + 6,723.65 ( + 13.5 %)
Recommended
open positions : None
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/mcperf.htm
2-13-2000
Value $ 50,000.00 tracking year starting value
2-27-2000 Value $ 55,716.25
3-12-2000
Value $ 63,826.25
3-24-2000 Value $ 52,361.25
4-07-2000
Value $ 55,572.50
4-20-2000
Value $ 55,845.00
5-05-2000
Value $ 58,606.40
5-20-2000
value $ 55,900.15
6-02-2000
Value $ 55,538.65
6-16-2000
Current Value $ 56,723.65
-------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.futurescom.com/indexfl.htm
Recommended
Open positions and Value 6-16-2000
Value as of 6-16 $ 201,000.70
Tracking Year to Date + 50,545 ( + 33 %)
Open Index Position : Long 2 Sept SP500 1490.10 avg
42 Trades closed : 4 Losses , 36 winners. Open: 1 loss , 1 winner
2-13-2000
Value $
150,455.70 Tracking year starting value
2-24-2000 Value $ 158,205.70
3-12-2000 Value $ 167,205.70
3-24-2000 Value $ 135,355.70
4-07-2000 Value $ 158,305.70
4-20-2000
Value $
159.005.70
5-05-2000
Value $
161,480.70
5-20-2000 Value $ 177,605.70
6-02-2000 Value $ 196,540.70
6-16-2000 Current Value $ 201,000.70
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Premier
Service
Value as of 6-16-2000 $ 906,058.25
Inception Feb 1998 to Date : +
804,194.30 ( + 790 %)
Calendar Year
to Date + $ 165,024.00 ( +22 %)
Tracking Year to Date + $
119,903.50 ( + 15 %)
Archives
: http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
2-09-1998 Value $ 101,863.95 Inception Value
*
2-23-1999 Value $ 404,088.95 * 1999 Tracking year begins
Jan
1-2000 Value $
741,034.25
1-13-2000
Value $
776,191.75
1-27-2000 Value $ 769,104.25
2-13-2000 Value $ 803,392.25
*2-24-2000 Value $ 786,154.75 * 2000 Tracking year begins
3-12-2000 Value $ 821,000.25
3-24-2000 Value $ 771,287.75
4-07-2000
Value $ 841,609.25
4-20-2000 Value $ 868,714.25
5-05-2000
Value $
901,741.25
5-20-2000
Value $
895,394.25
6-02-2000
Value $
919,360.15
6-16-2000
Current Value $ 906,058.25
Recommended
Positions :
Long 2 July
Coffee 9410 avg margin req
9800
Long 4 Aug
Bean 532 margin
req 4400
Long 5 July
Beans 505 3/4 margin
req 5500
Long 4 July
Cotton at 5875 margin req 4000
Long 2 Sept
Coffee at 9450 margin
req 9800
Long 4 Sept
SP500 at 1491.75 avg margin req
100,000
Margin req 133,000 excess aprox 770,000.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Combined Value of All Programs : 1,248,748.15
YTD +
263,447.00 ( +26.8 % )
Tracking Year
to Date + 207,137.70 ( +20 %)
Starting Value Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 (BW only)
Combined Value Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95 (BW Only)
Combined Value Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05 (BW and Premier only)
Combined Value 12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15 (BW, MC,
Premier)
Combined Value Feb 2000* $ 1,041,610.45 ( BW, MC, Premier)
*Tracking Year
Begins: Feb 13 ,2000 for BW, MC & Index. Feb 24 for Premier
Index program is new for yr. 2000
Combined Value Feb 27, 2000 $ 1,057,161.35
Combined Value
March 12, 2000 $ 1,115,762.50
Combined Value March 24 ,2000 $ 1,028,413.80
Combined Value
April 9, 2000 $ 1,117,627.65
Combined Value April , 20 2000 $ 1,157,549.05
Combined value May 05, 2000 $ 1,187,322.50
Combined Value
May 20, 2000 $ 1,200.474.45
Combined Value June 2, 2000 $ 1,255,931.30
Current
Combined Value June 16, 2000 $
1,248,748.15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Material Assumptions:
FuturesCom’s Tracking Begins and Ends during February . Starting Value
was
established at $55,000 Feb. 12 1997.
Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's
Bi-Weekly Investment
Outlooks,
Morning Comments, Index Flashes , Premier Flashes and updates that pertain to
the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade,
and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related
Futures Contracts.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY
INHERENT LIMITATIONS. SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED
BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK,
AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES
OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE
MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN
ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All
Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is
Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.