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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook  (BW)   Sunday Aug 01, 1999
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Courage in a Speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind

Sat July 31, 1999

11:34 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. Japanese-Yen

Nearby Support is at 8777 to 8762 and 8745. A close under 8762 is negative and augurs for a test of 8683 to 8668 under that support is at 8589 to 8560 under that support is at 8499 to 8484 and 8406 to 8391...traders can buy at 8406 and hold for higher prices...

Nearby Resistance is at 8817 and the 8856 to 8872 region. Traders can sell at 8871, and hold for lower prices..Beyond that resistance is at 8934 to 8964 which should cap the rally for now.

Traders should go short if a close under 8762 occurs.

Sept. D-Mark

Nearby Support should appear at 5478 a close under augurs for a test of 5461 and 5446. Below that support is at 5430 to 5418. A close under 5418 is negative and augurs for a test of 5356 to 5344 and eventually the 5282 to 5256 region, traders can buy at 5282 and hold for higher prices..

Resistance is at 5492 to 5504 and 5514, beyond that sellers should appear near 5553 to 5577... Traders can sell at 553 and hold for lower prices, risk a close over 5577 for three days in a row.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5640 to 5653 and 5716 to 5729... Traders can sell at 5716 and risk a close over 5729 for three days in a row.

Traders should go short if a close under 5459 occurs.

Sept. Swiss

Nearby Support is at 6741 and 6718. A close under 6741 is negative and augurs for a test of 6707 and the 6673 to 6659 region. Below that 6591 to 6577 offers support... Traders can buy at 6591 for a bounce, risk a close under 6577 for two days in a row...If it fails there a test of 6509 to 6482 is likely...

Nearby Resistance is at 6755 and the 6809 to 6836 region, a close over 6836 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6906 to 6919, Traders can sell at 6906 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6921 for two days in a row. Beyond that 6990 to 7003 should cap the rally...

Traders should go short if a close under 6707 occurs

Sept. British Pound

Support should appear near 1.1.8174 to 1.6150 a close under 1.6150 is negative and augurs for a test of 1.6090 and the 1.5986 Below that 1.5886 should contain a decline.

Traders can buy at 1.5886 and risk a close under 1.5760 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 1.6286 . Traders can sell at 1.6286 for a turn lower and risk a close over 1.6420 for two days in a row.. Beyond that is at resistance 1.6438 and 1.6550.

Where sellers should appear and cap the rally..

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support should appear at 6641 and 6626. Traders can buy at 6628 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6591 for three days in a row. Below that 6577 should contain a decline A close under 6577 augurs for a test of 6509 to 6483...

Resistance is at 6659 and 6673 . A close over 6673 augurs for a test of 6707 and eventually 6741. Beyond that resistance is at 6755 and 6809.

Traders should go long if a close over 6673 occurs..

Stay tuned for Forex flashes.

 

Precious Metals

Dec. Gold

Nearby Support is at 256.8 to 255.20 Traders can buy at 256.8 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 2252 and 251.10. Below that 246.90 should hold..

Resistance is at 259.90 and 262 a close over 262 is friendly and augurs or a test of 266.and eventually 272 Traders should go long if a close over 262.1 occurs.

Be long..

Sept. Copper

Nearby Support is at 7595, traders can buy at 7595, risk a close under 7470 for two days in a row Under that support should appear near 7400 Below that support is at 7195 and the 7005 to 6990 region.

Nearby Resistance is at 7795 and 7870... Traders can sell at 7835 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7875 for two days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7940 to 7955 is likely.

Above that resistance should appear near the 7995 to 8045 region .. and 8120 to 8155.

Trade Accordingly and stay tuned.

Oct. Platinum

Support is at 342 to 341 and 337 , traders can buy at 337.5, risk a close under 331 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 344.5 and 347.5. A close over 347.5 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 355.5 and the 358 region. Beyond that resistance should appear near the 361.3 to 362.3 region

Traders should go long if a close over 347.5 occurs..

Sept. Silver

On the DownSide nearby support is at 543.5 Traders can buy at 543.5 and hold for higher prices. Under that support is at 534 to 527.5 and 521.5. A close under 521.5 is negative and augurs for a test of 505 to 497 region.. Traders can buy at 505 for a bounce. Risk a close under 491 for two days in a row.

On the Upside. Nearby resistance is at 547.5 to 550.5. Beyond that resistance is at 561 to 565. A close over 565.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 578 to 583.

Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for Flashes...

The Exciting Energies

Sept. Crude

Nearby Support is at 2042 and 2034. Below that support is at 2015 and the 1996 to 1982. A close under 1982 is negative and augurs for a test of the 1953 to 1946 region and 1909 to 1902 which should contain a decline for a bit . Under that support is at

Below that support is at 1869 to 1858. Traders can buy at 1869 and risk a close under 1858 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly

Resistance is at 2061 to 2065. Traders can sell at 2061, risk a close over 2088 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 2126 to 2134 and 2170 to 2185 . Beyond that 2219 to 2226 should cap the rally for a bit..Traders can sell at 2219 , risk a close over 2267 for two days in a row.

Sept. Unleaded Gas

Nearby Support is at 6130 and 6064. Below that support is at 5957 to 5945 and the 5880 to 5855 region. If 5855 fails a test of 5745 and 5729 to 5716 is likely..Below that support is at 5577 to 5555 and the 5356 to 5344 region where it should hold Traders can buy at 5356 and hold for higher prices...

Resistance should appear at 6260 and 6337 to 6350 and the 6413 to 6430 region

Beyond that resistance is at 6480 to 6509 and 6577.. Which should cap a rally ...

Sept. Heating Oil

Nearby Support is at 5187 a close under augurs for a test of 5067 to 5056. Below that support is at 4856 to 4845 and 4650 to 4639 a close under 4639 is negative and indicates a test of 4530 and the 4514 to 4504 region. Traders can buy at 4514 , risk a close under 4504 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 5259 to 5282 . Traders can sell at 5259 and risk a close over 5356 for three days in a row Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5418 to 5430 and the 5492 to 5504 region Traders can sell at 5492 , risk a close over 5504 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

The Grand Grains

November Beans

Nearby Resistance is at 435 3/4 beyond resistance is at 444 to 446

A close over 444 3/4 is friendly and augurs for a test of 451 to 453 1/2 and 458 to 463.

A close over 465 is friendly and indicates a test of 476 and 488...Above that sellers should appear near 516...

Support is at 430 and 418 to 416 traders can buy at 418 1/2 and hold for higher prices risk a close under 404 3/4 for two days in a row. Under that support is at 389 and 381

Traders should go long if a close over 444 3/4 occurs...

Dec. Soybean Meal

Resistance is at 135.1. Beyond that sellers should appear near 138.5 to 140.5 and 144 to 145.9. A close over 145.9 is friendly and augurs for a test of 156.

Support is near 133.1 and the 127.4 to 126.8 region. Traders can buy at 127.4 and risk a close under 126.8 for three days in a row Below that 121.70 should stop the decline for a bit..

Dec. SoyBean Oil

Resistance is at 1569 to 1576 . A close over 1576 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1609 to 1615 region and eventually 1642 to 1655. Beyond that resistance is at 1672 and 1689 to 1696. Above that 1731 to 1734 should trade... A close over 1734 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1774 to 1780 and the 1808 to 1822 region...

Traders should go long if a close over 1576 occurs.

Support is at 1535 to 1529 and 1496 to 1484 Which should contain the decline for the time being. Traders can buy at 1490, risk a close under 1453 for two days in a row.

Below that support is at 1421 to 1415 and 1383 to 1377, Traders can buy at 1383 and hold for the Pull..

Dec. Corn

Resistance is at 214 to 216 and 219 3/4 A close over 219 3/4 is friendly and augurs for a test of 224 to 226 Beyond that resistance is at 230 1/2 and 239 3/4.

Support is at 209 1/2 and 204 1/2. Below that support is at 201 and the

199 3/4 to 198 /34 region. Traders can buy at 199 3/4 and risk a close under 190 1/4.

Under that buyers should appear near 186 3/4 to 185..

Sept. Wheat

Resistance is at 264 and 269 3/4 to 270 . A close over 270 is friendly and augurs for a test of 275 and 281 where resistance should appear. Beyond that a touch of 292 3/4 is likely to occur.. if it holds...

Traders should go long if a close over 270 occurs..

Support is at 261 1/2. Traders can go long at 261 1/2 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 258 1/2 and 252.. Under that buyers should appear near the 246 3/4 to 245 1/2 region.. Trade accordingly Aggressive traders can buy at 246 3/4 and risk a close under 235 1/2 for three days in a row.

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton

On the DownSide support is at 5301 and 5230, Traders can buy at 5301 and risk a close under 5259 for three days in a row . Below that buyers should appear near 5130

and the 5067 to 5056 region.

On the Upside Nearby Resistance is at 5344 to 5356 . A close over 5356 is friendly and augurs for a test of 5492 to 5504. Beyond that resistance is at 5553 to 5577 and

5640 to 5653 a close over 5653 is friendly and augurs for a test of 5729 and 5792 to 5805..

Oct. Sugar

Nearby Support is at 586 to 582, traders can buy at 586, risk a close

under 582 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 559 to 552 and 538.

Resistance should appear at 601 to 609, a close over 609 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 630 to 634 region. A close over 634 is friendly and augurs for a test of

656 to 661 and eventually 680.

Traders should go long if a close over 609 occurs..

Sept. Coffee

On the Upside, Resistance is at 9180, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 9425 to 9445 and 9510 ..Beyond that resistance is at 9625 to 9640 and 9705 to 9735. Above that resistance should appear near the 9825 / 9835 and 9920 to 9935.

On the DownSide, support is at 8935 and 8870 to 8855 . Under that buyers should appear near 8760 to 8715 and 8590 Below that buyers should appear near 8490 and 8405 to 8390.

Traders can go long if a close over 9180 occurs.

Sept. Cocoa

Support is at 998 and 983 Traders can buy at 1000, risk a close under 968 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 948 and the 941 to 932 region under that 912 to 907 should hold..

Resistance is at 1015 and the 1032 to 1036 region Beyond that resistance is at 1048 and 1058 to 1068. A close over 1068 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1096 to 1101 and 1113

Trade accordingly

 

The Lively Livestock

Oct. Cattle

Support is at 6432 to 6417 and 6367 traders can buy at 6367 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6287 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 6257 and 6212. Under that 6182 to 6165 should contain a decline.

Resistance is at 6442 to 6452. A close over 6452 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6512 to 6517 and the 6577 to 6592 region. Beyond that resistance is at 6622, traders can sell at 6622 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6707 for two days in a row.

Oct. Hogs
Support
is at 4237 to 4192, under that support is at 4057 .Traders can buy at 4057 for a bounce , risk a close under 3962. Below that support is at 3742 to 3732.

Resistance is at 4392 and 4437 beyond that sellers should appear near 44537 and 4572 to 4582.. Traders can sell at 4582 and hold for lower prices... Risk a close over 4652 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4845 to 4857

and 4915 to 4927.

Traders Stay Tuned for Belly and Hog Flashes.

 

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The DownSide nearby support is at 114-24 under that buyers should appear near 114-07 to 114-05. Below that 113-18 and 113-05 should contain the decline for a while..

Under that 112-07 offers support.

On the Upside Nearby Resistance is at 115-05 and 115-18 to 115-22. A close over 115-18 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 116-05 to 116-08 region.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 117-15.

Trade Accordingly.

Sept. SP 500

On the DownSide Nearby Support is at 1322 to 1321.40 and 1317.80 under that 1310 and 1307.50 to 1307 offers support ...Traders can buy at 1307 for a turn higher put your own risk on it and stay tuned. Under that support is at 1304 Where it should hold on a decline basis the close. Below that buyers should appear near 1299.90. Under that support is at 1289 and the 1274 to 1268 region...

Nearby Resistance is at 1334 and 1340 to 1341.20 A close over 1341.20 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1346 and eventually 1356.10 and the 1361.50 region.. Beyond that resistance is at 1369 to 1371 and 1377 ..A close over 1377 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1383 Beyond that sellers should appear near 1399 to 1402...

Traders should go long if a close over 1340 occurs

Stay tuned for Flashes ...

Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Support
is at 10,652 and 10,630. Under that buyers should appear near the 10,580 to 10,567 region. Below that support is at 10,475 to 10,464 then 10,411.90 and the 10,360 to 10,320 region./a close under 10,320 is negative and indicates a test of 10,185 and the 10,050 to 10,000 region.. if the market continues it's decline expect good buying to appear near 9737 to 9707.

Resistance should appear near 10,662 to 10,680 . a close over 10,680 is friendly and augurs for a test of 10,742 then 10,780. Beyond that a move towards the 10,820 to 10,845 region is likely. Beyond that resistance is at 10,916 and 10,960 to 11,010 and 11,057.60 beyond that resistance is at 11,155 and 11,192 then 11,300 to 11,360...

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.

Happy Trading

Bill

Aug. 1 1999
3:54 PM

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

 

BW recommended Open Pos. as of 7-30-99

Long Sept. SP500 at 1399

Long Sept. Bonds at 116-09

Short Sept. Unleaded Gas at 6337

2-12-1999 Value 55,000
Current Value 74,079.80

MC recommended Open Pos. as of 7-30

Long Sept. Bonds 117-05

Long Sept. Coffee 9590

Short 2 Sept. Yen 8737

Short 2 Sept. D-marks at 5498

2-12-1999 Value 51,708.10

Current Value 63,087.10

Premier recommended Open Pos

Long 2 Sept. Coffee at 9400

Long 4 Sept. Bonds at 115-29

Short 2 Yen at 8738

Short 4 Sept. Swiss at 6748

Short 4 Sept. D-marks at 5498

2-23-1999 Value 404,088.95

Current Value 549,583.85

Aggregate total 7-30-1999 686,550.75

Starting value 2-12-1997 55,000.00

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERANT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTAION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITAIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSITE. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSLY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSLY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..

 

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