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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook  (BW)    Sunday Aug 29, 1999
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"What the Wise do in the Beginning, Fools do in the End."
Warren Buffett


Sun, August 29, 1999
04:00 AM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. Japanese-Yen

Nearby Support should appear near the 8964 to 8934 region and 8908. However a close under 8934 is negative and augurs for a test of the 8871 to 8856 region. Below that support is at 8771 to 8762 and 8744. Below that support is at 8683 to 8668 and 8645.

Nearby Resistance is at 9008 and 9045 to 9060 . Traders can sell at 9008 for a turn lower, risk a close over 9060. Beyond that good sellers should appear resistance at 9140 to 9156. Beyond that resistance is at 9225 and 9316 to 9345.

Aggressive traders should consider going short is a close under 8934 occurs.

Sept. Swiss

Support is at 6509 to 6483. Below that buyers should appear near 6462,

traders can buy at 6462 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6451 for two days in a row. Under that 6430 to 6417 offers support. A close under 6417 is negative and augurs for a test of 6350 to 6337.

Resistance is at 6546 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 6577 to 6591 and 6609.. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 6659 to 6673 region. Traders can sell at 6659 risk a close over 6673 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6741 to 6755 and cap a rally... Above that resistance is at 6809 to 6836..

Sept. D-Mark

Nearby Support should appear at 5344 and 5314 a close under 5344 augurs for an eventual test of the 5282 to 5259 region. Below that support is at 5211 and 5200 and 5139 to 5127.

Resistance is at 5361 and 5371 above that sellers should appear near 5418 to 5430.

Traders can sell at 5418 for a turn lower, risk a close over 5430 for three days in a row.

Beyond that sellers should appear near 5462 and the 5492 to 5504 region.

Trade accordingly

Traders should go short if a close under 5444 occurs.

Sept. British Pound

Support should appear near 1.5760 should contain the decline.. Aggressive traders can buy at 1.5760 and hold.. Below that support is at 1.5690 and 1.5520

Resistance is at 1.5892 and 1.5920 a close over 1.5920 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1.6026 and 1.6090. Beyond that is at resistance 1.6150. Above that sellers should appear near 1.6220

Traders should go long if a close over 1.5892 occurs.

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support should appear at 6707. Under that support is at 6684 and 6673 to 6659.

Aggressive traders can buy a dip to 6673 and risk close under 6658 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 6624 and 6591 to 6483.

.

Resistance is at 6734 and the 6741 to 6755 region. A close over augurs for a test of 6784 then 6809 eventually 6836. Beyond that a test of the 6906 to 6919 region is likely . Which should probably be sold but we will leave that for the Dec.Contracts when we roll our analysis.

Traders should go long if a close over 6741 occurs.

Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex flashes

 

Precious Metals

Dec. Gold

Nearby Support is at 255.2. Traders can buy at 255.2 and hold for higher prices.

Below that support is at 254.5 and 253.5 and 251.9 to 251.1 which should hold over the near term.

Resistance is at 256.5 to 256.8 and 258.4 beyond that sellers should appear near 261.20 to 262 and 266.3 to 267.2

Dec. Copper

Nearby Support is at 7605 to 7590. Traders should Buy at 7605 and risk a close

under 7485 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 7415 and 7335 ...

Aggressive traders can buy at 7345 , risk a close under 7250 for two days in a row..

Nearby Resistance is at 7675 and 7690 , a close over 7690 is friendly and augurs for a test of resistance near 7755 to 7780. Beyond that a trade towards 7890 then 7940 to 7955 is likely A close over 7955 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of

resistance near the 8030 to 8045 region and 8155.

Traders should go long if a close over 7690 occurs.

Oct. Platinum

Support is at 346.5 and 339.6. Under that support is at 337 to 336 and 334.

Resistance is at 349.80 and 350.30 beyond that a test of 354.5 to 357

Dec. Silver

On the DownSide nearby support is at 513,5 and 507 to 505 then 496.. Traders can buy at 505 for a bounce. Risk a close under 491 for two days in a row.

On the Upside. Nearby resistance is at 520 and 526, a close over 526 is friendly and augurs for a test of 536 to 538. Beyond that resistance is at 552 and 558

Traders should go long if a close over 526 occurs .

Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for Flashes...

The Exciting Energies

Oct. Crude

Nearby Support is at 2126 then 2112 and the 2088 to 2080 region. Below that support is at 2049 and the 2042 to 2034 region.. Under that buyers should appear near 1996 to 1982 and the 1953 to 1946 region which should contain a decline for a bit . Traders can buy at 1953 and risk a close under 1946 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly

Resistance is at 2134 and 2162 then 2180. A close over 2162 is friendly and augurs for as test of 2219 to 2226 and the 2267 to 2275 region is likely. Traders can sell at 2267 for a turn lower , risk a close over 2275 for two days in a row. Above that 2315 to 2322 offers resistance.

Trade Accordingly.

Oct. Unleaded Gas

Nearby Support is at 6210 and 6190 to 6165. Traders can buy at 6210 for a turn higher , risk a close under 6190 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 6035 to 6023 and 5957 to 5945 then 5880 to 5855. If 5855 fails a test of 5745 and 5729 to 5716 is likely.. Below that support is at 5577 to 5555 and the 5356 to 5344 region where it should hold Traders can buy at 5356 and hold for higher prices...

Resistance should appear at 6337 to 6350 and 6390.. beyond that a test of the

6413 to 6430 region is likely A close over 6413 is friendly and indicates a test of 6480 to 6509 and eventually 6577 to 6591 Which should cap a rally ...Traders can sell at 6577 and risk a close over 6591 for two days in a row

Traders can go long if a close over 6413 occurs.

Oct. Heating Oil

Nearby Support is at 5653 to 5640 and 5577 to 5553, traders can buy at 5577 and risk a close under 5550 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 5504 and the 5430 to 5418 region. Traders can buy at 5430 , risk a close under 5418. Below that support is at 5282 to 5259 and the 5211 to 5200 region. Aggressive traders can buy at 5211 and hold for higher prices.. Below that 5159 to 5127 should hold..

Resistance is at 5682 above that sellers should appear near 5716 to 5729 then 5767 and the 5792 / 5805 region 5830 to 5855 region. Beyond that sellers should appear 5945 to 5967 and the 6023 to 6035 region aggressive traders can sell at 6023 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 6035 for two days In a row.

Trade Accordingly.

The Grand Grains

November Beans

Nearby Resistance is at 472 to 473 1/2 a close over 473 1/2 is friendly and augurs for a test of 483 1/2 to 485 1/2 where sellers may appear. However a close 485 3/4 is friendly and augurs for a test of 499 and eventually 508 3/4 then 512 1/2 to 514..

Beyond that resistance is at 521 1/2 and 536 to 542.

Support is at 467 1/2 and 462 to 458 under that support is at 444 traders can buy at 444 3/4 and hold for higher prices risk a close under 428 1/2 for three days in a row. Under that support is at 412 and 399 1/2

Traders should go long if a close over 473 1/2 occurs...

Dec. Soybean Meal

Resistance is at 143.5 and 145.3 to 145.9. Beyond that sellers should appear near 146.8 and 148.4 to 149.6. Beyond that a touch of the 156.9 to 157.6 region. Is likely.

Support is near 138.2 to 137.7, traders can buy at 138.2 hold for higher prices.. Below that support is at 134.6 and 133.4 .Traders can buy at 133.4 and risk a close under 130.4 for three days in a row.

Dec. SoyBean Oil

Resistance is at 1738. A close over 1738 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1774 to 1780 then 1792 and the 1808 to 1822 region. A close over 1822 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1858 to 1869 and 1882. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1902 to 1909 and the 1946 to 1953. Eventually we see test of 1982 to 1996 down the road if it can hold and rally into Sept. early Oct.. Which would be a likely be the result of early frost fears.....Expect the Unexpected

Traders should go long if a close over 1780 occurs.

Support is at 1731 and 1696 to 1689, under that buyers should appear near 1655 to 1642. Traders can buy at 1696 and risk a close under 1642 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 1615 to 1609 Which should contain the decline for the time being. Traders can buy at 1609 and hold for higher prices, risk as close under 1568 for two days in a row. Below that support is at 1496 to 1483 and the 1459 to 1453 region.

Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned

Dec. Corn

Resistance is at 223 Beyond that resistance is at 228 and 232. Above that sellers should appear near 236 and 239 then 243

Support is at 214 3/4 and 211 1/2 traders can buy at 212 and risk a close under

207 1/2 for three days in a row, under that support is at 206 3/4. Below that Buyers should appear near 199 3/4 and 191 . .

Dec. Wheat

Resistance is at 281. A close over 281 is friendly and augurs for a test of 287 and 292 to 293 3/4 A close over 293 3/4 is friendly and augurs for a test of 299 to 301 and eventually 305 where resistance should appear. Beyond that resistance is at 309 and 318.

Traders should go long if a close over 281 3/4 occurs..

Support is at 277 1/4 to 275. Below that support is at 269 1/2. Traders can buy at

269 1/2 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 263. Then 251 and 244

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton

On the DownSide support is at 5067 to 5056 and 5013 to 4973 which should contain the decline for a bit.. Under that buyers should appear near 4926 to 4915..

Under that 4856 to 4545 offer support as does the 4717 to 4695 region..

On the Upside Nearby Resistance is at 5127 to 5139/5144 and 5165 a close over 5144 is friendly and augurs for a test of 52 15 and the 5259 to 5282 region Beyond that resistance is at 5314 and 5356.. A close over 5356 is friendly and augurs for a test of an eventual test of 5490 to 5510.. Beyond that resistance is at 5555 to 5577 and the 5640 to 5672 region Traders should go long if a close over 5144 occurs..

Oct. Sugar

Nearby Support is at 609, aggressive traders can buy at 609 and risk a close under 583 for three days in a row under that support is at 601 and 586 to 583. Traders can buy at 583 and risk a close under 562 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 577 under that 562 to 559 should hold.

Resistance should appear at 618 to 620 . A close over 620 is friendly and augurs for a test of 630 to 634. Above that resistance is at 645 and eventually 656 to 661.

Beyond that a test of 682 to 684 should not be ruled out.. if it holds..

Traders should go long if a close over 620 occurs..

 

Dec. 'The Monster' Coffee

On the Upside, Resistance is at 9175 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9360 and the 9530 to 9545 region. .Beyond that resistance is at 9840 and 9920 to 9935. .Above that resistance should appear near the 100.00 to 10050 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 103.00 to 103.60 and 105.30 to 105.80.

On the DownSide, support is at 9115 and 9035 Under that buyers should appear near 8890 and 8855. Below that 8705 to 8685 should hold and contain a decline.

Traders can buy at 8705 and risk a close under 8580 for three days in a row.

Traders should go long if a close over 9175 occurs.

 

Dec. Cocoa

Support is at 922 and 912 to 907 Traders can buy at 922, risk a close under 907 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 904 to 899 and the 882 to 877 region

under that 852 to 847 should hold..

Resistance is at 941 and 952 to 954. A close over 954 is friendly and augurs for a test of 968 to 972 and eventually the 1000 to 1005 region and beyond toward the 1034 and 1058 to 1068 regions.. if it holds..

Traders should go long if a close over 941 occurs..

Trade accordingly and stay tuned for flashes..

 

The Lively Livestock

Oct. Cattle

Support is at 6647 and 6622 under that support is at 6587 to 6572 and 6652. Traders can buy at 6587 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6507 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 6492 and 6447 then 6430 to 6417.

Resistance is at 6672 above that sellers should appear near 6722 and 6737 and

the 6742 to 6757 region Beyond that resistance is at 6807 and the 6837 region..

Traders can sell at 6807 and risk a close over 6837 for three days in a row.

Oct. Hogs
Support
is at 4472 under that support is at 4372 and 4317 to 4302 and 4272. .Traders can buy at 4272 and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 4122 to 4107 and 4057 to 4047.. Traders can buy at 4112 and hold for a good turn higher.. risk a close under 4047 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 4512 and 4547 then 4572 to 4582. Traders can sell at 4517 and risk a close 4582. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4672 the 4692 to 4717 region

A close over 4717 is friendly and augurs for a test of 4777 to 4797 and 4847 to 4857

Beyond that resistance is at 4912 and 4972 to 4997 where sellers should cap a rally.

 

 

Traders Stay Tuned for Flashes in the Livestock Complex.

 

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Dec. Bonds

On The DownSide nearby support is at 114-31 under that buyers should appear near 114-26 Traders can buy for a bounce at 114-26, risk 10 pts. Under that support is at 114-13 and 114-07. Traders can buy at 113-31 and risk a close under 113-18 for three days in a row. Under that support is at 113-04 and 112-00 then 111-10, where hearty traders can buy and hold for higher prices..

On the Upside Nearby Resistance is at 115-20, a close over 115-20 is friendly and augurs for a test of 115-31 and 116-06. Beyond that sellers should appear near 116-12 and 117-00. A close over 117-00 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 117-30 to 118-06.. Traders should go long if a close over 115-20 occurs

Sept. SP 500

On the DownSide Nearby Support is at 1346 to 1342.10 to 1340.. Traders can buy at 1340 for a bounce.. higher put your own risk on it and stay tuned. Under that support is at 1334 to 1331.10 Where it should hold on a decline basis the close. Below that

buyers should appear near 1322. to 1321.40. Under that support is at 1310. Traders can buy at 1310 for a good turn higher, risk a close under 1304 for two days in a row.

Below that support is at 1292 to 1289 then 1277 and the 1274 to 1268 region which should contain a decline.. Failure there would indicates a test of 1253 to 1247 and 1238 to 1232, under that Buyers should appear near 1217.5 stop a break..

Traders should go long if a close over 1361.50 occurs.

 

Nearby Resistance is at 1355 to 1358.5. An extended trade or close over 1358.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1361.5 to 1362.20. Aggressive traders can sell at 1361.50 and risk a close over 1362.20. A close over 1362.2 indicates a test of 1371.90 to 1374.20 and eventually the 1377 to 1383 region Beyond that sellers should appear near 1399, a close over 1399 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1407 and eventually the 1415 to 1421 region. Traders can sell at 1421 for a quick turn lower, put your own risk on it and stay tuned. Beyond that resistance is near 1437 to 1440 and then 1453 to 1459 and 1470 region which should Cap a Rally.

Stay tuned for Flashes ...

Dec. SP 500

On the DownSide Nearby Support is at 1361.50 to 1359.40. Under that support is at 1348.50 and the 1346.00 to 1343.40 region Where it should hold on a decline basis the close. Below that buyers should appear near 1340 and 1322.. Traders can buy at 1322 for a good bounce, put your own risk on it and stay tuned.. Under that a support is at 1310 to 1304 and 1289 below that buyers should appear near 1274 to 1268 and stop a break.

 

Nearby Resistance is at 1372.40 and 1375 to 1377. An extended trade or close over 1377 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1383.. A close over 1383 augurs for a touch of 1392 Beyond that sellers should appear near 1399, a close over 1399 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1407 and eventually the 1415 to 1421 region. Beyond that resistance is near 1437 to 1440, traders can sell at 1437 for a quick turn lower, put your risk on it and stay tuned Beyond that resistance is at 1453 to 1459 and 1470 to 1471.50.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Support
is at 11,016 to 11,010, under that support should appear near the 10,960 to 10,947 region.. Under that buyers should appear near 10,873 and 10,820 to 10,790. Below that 10,680 and 10,630 to 10,580 offers support.

Resistance should appear near 11,155 to 11,158 and 11,167. Beyond that resistance is at 11,235 then 11,300 and 11,330 to 11,360 region.. Beyond that resistance is at 11,420 and 11,580 to 11,630 Which should Cap a rally for a bit..

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.

Happy Trading

Bill

Aug. 29 1999
11:10 AM

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

 

BW recommended Open Pos. as of 8-28-99
Long Dec. Gold at 261.2

Long 2 Dec. Cotton at 5308

Long Dec. Bean Oil at 1703

Short Sept. Yen at 8723

Long Dec. Coffee at 9750

Long Dec. Silver at 526.5

Long Sept. British Pounds at 1.5936
Long Oct. Crude at 2088

 

2-12-99 Value 55,000.00

8-15-1999 Value 77,305.70

Current Value 73,310.55

MC recommended Open Pos. NONE

2-12-1999 Value 51,708.10

8-15 Value 82,905.10

Current Value 92,507.60

 

Premier recommended Open Pos.

Short Sept Yen at 8800

Long 4 Oct. Sugar at 614

Long 5 Sept C$ at 6764

Long 4 Nov Beans at 467 1/4

Long 5 Dec Gold at 262.80

Long 5 Dec Cotton 5465

Long 5 Dec Silver 528.5

Long 2 Dec coffee at 9290

Long 5 Dec Bean oil at 1719

Long 4 Dec Bonds at 116-00

Long 20 Oct Bond 117 Calls, Short 20 Oct 118 calls at 10

2-23-1999 Value 404,088.95

Aug. 1 1999 Value 549,583.85

Aug 15 Value 583,476.55
Aug 28 Value 577,238.55

 

Starting value 2-12-1997 55,000.00

Material Assumptions: Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly

Investment Outlooks, Morning Comments, Premier Flashes, Flashes and

UpDates which pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at

$ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of Futures Contracts

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..

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