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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook
October 4th 1997
�A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong -- not taking the loss- that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul." - Jesse livermore-
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
New Contracts in this Issue ..The Dow Jones Industrial Avg...Jan Platinum ,March Sugar. Dec hogs....
Keep Your Eyes Open foe the FuturesCom Fall Outlook Due Out This month .
Saturday Oct 4 1997
8:30 AM NYC time
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Nearby support is at 8194 to 8223, buy at 8213 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8191 for three days in a row. Below that 8173, buy at 8173 for a bounce , risk 50 pts. Below that 8044 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.
* Hearty Traders should be prepared to go long Yen at 8274 , and stay tuned.
Resistance next week is near 8300 to 8314, above that 8356 to 8368 offers resistance. A close over 8368 augurs for a test of 8448 sell at 8448 , risk 20 pts or a close over 8451 initially..Beyond that 8491should trade and offer resistance, sell at 8491 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8560 to 8589 should trade then 8688 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8712 , risk a close over 8763 for three days in a row.
Generally I am Friendly to the Yen over longer term...
Dec Swiss Franc
Early support should appear at 6945 where hearty Bulls can go long for a move higher, risk only 15 pts. however failure there indicates a decline to 6919, buy at 6919 for a bounce only, risk 30 pts below that 6845 offers god support , Buy at 6845, risk risk a close under 6797 for three days in a row. If 6845 fails a trade to 6755 is likely , buy at 6755 , risk a clsoe under 6740.
Early Resistance is at 6994 to 7003. Beyond that a trade to 7062 to 7074 is likely , sell at 7073 , risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7113 is likely, sell at 7113 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7223 to 7242 is likely and where good resistance remains sell at 7223 for a turn , stay tuned....
Support is at 160.88 , buy there for a turn higher , risk a close under 159.60 for two days in a row.More Support is at 159.20 , buy there ,risk a trade under 157.60 If not long buy at 158.20 for for a turn higher risk a close under 157.26 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 161.50 and 161.90 . A close beyond 161.50 or 162 augurs for a test of 163.60 Traders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.
Support is near 5682, buy at 5684 for a position , risk a close under 5680 for two days in a row. Support should also appear near 5640 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5577 .Below that 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.
Nearby Resistance is at 5716 and 5735, above that sell at 5791 , risk a close over 5807 for three days in a row Beyond that a trade to 5855is likely. If The DMZ moves up to 5886 to 5902 sell at 5880 risk a close over 5914 for three days in a row.
Dec Canadian DollarRecommended Position Short at 7328
Support should appear near 7321 then 7291 and 7252 , buy at 7256 , risk a close under 7242 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7328 to 7342, beyond that 7365 to 7370 offers resistance. Beyond that a trade is 7399 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.
Nearby support is at 334.7 then 332.8 Buy at 334.20 and hold. Traders should also consider buying Dec Gold at 341.90 stop basis the close where some resistance remains however if the " Yellow MetaL gets it gander up a rally to 350 is likely , a close over 353 augurs for a rally to 359 sell at 361 , risk a close over risk a close over 365 for three days in a row.
Buy dips..and hold.
Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.
Nearby support is at 9355 and 9320, below that Buy at 9270 for a turn higher risk a close under 9150 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9035 is likely...where value should take hold...
Resistance is at 9470, howerver an open over or extended trade over 9445 is friendly for a rally to 9590 where resistance remains..a close over 9640 indicates a test of 9905 where traders can sell for a turn lower , risk close over 9940, beyond that 100.80 offer resistance , sell at 100.80 for a turn lower , risk a close over 100.90 for two days in a row. Beyond that 103.25 is likley...
Buy Dips a close over 9470 is friendly....if this occurs traders should consider going long
Nearby support appear near 426.5, buy at 426.5, risk $ 5.00 , below that support should appear near 418 near 417 , then at 412 where trader should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce, risk a close under 406 for three days in a row...
Resistance is near 433 to 436, a close over 437 augurs for a 'pop' to 445 then 452...and beyond.
Buy dips However a close under 423 is unfriendly.
Early support is 524 to 525, buy there for a bounce , risk a close under 522 initially ...Below that support should appear near 518.5 with more at 508, buy at 509 ,risk a close under 496 , below that 488 should hold....Resistance is near 537 then 555....Beyond that a test of 577 is not out of the question...
A close over 525 maintains good posture , over 537 is Bullish.
The Exciting Energies
Dec Crude Oil
Early support is at 2238 , buy there , risk a close under 2213 for three days in a row. Below that 2192 and 2170 should considered buying regions ,buy at 2185 , risk a close under 2133 for two days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 2263 early , then 2291 to 2298 beyond that a trade to 2315 then 2366 is likely... beyond that 24.60 should trade...
Stay tuned ...
Early support is near 6240 , buy there for a bounce only , risk a trade under 6160 , below that 6100 offers support , traders should consider buying near 6020 if able...risk a close under 5955 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 6315 to 6320 Beyond that 6500 should trade , sell at 6505 , risk a close over 6580 for two days in a row.
A close under 6210 is unfriendly ...
Dec Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 6225 , buy at 6225 for a bounce risk a close under 6140. Below that 6090 offers support as does 6015 , buy at 6015 , risk a close under 5850 .
Resistance is near 6290 , beyond that 6335 to 6350 should trade , with a target above at 6510. Beyond that 6700 to 6800 is a likely target.
The �Grande� Grains
Early Resistance is near 648 3/4 then 652 1/2. A close above 649 indicates a thrust to 662 and with an outaside chance of 677 , traders should sell at 677 for a turn lower , risk a close over 684 for two days in a row.
Support is at 634 1/2, , buy sat 634 1/2 , risk a close under 624 for three days in a row.. More support should appear near 620 then 612 , buy at 612 , risk a close under 607 , Below that 597 should hold as the 577 to 597 region remains a Value area...
Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position Long at 200
Good support should appear at 200.70 more support should appear near 198.70 , then 194.90...Buy at 194.90 risk a close under 193 for two days in a row.
Resistance is near 204 and 205 , a close over 205 indicates a ' pop', to the 210 /211 region. , A close over 212 augurs for a rally towards 218 where traders should sell for a turn , risk a close over 221 for three days in a row....
Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2412 below that 2389 to 2376 offers mild support .. Traders can Buy at 2392 , risk a close under 2352 where support should appear.. a close under 2352 augurs for a slip to 2308. Traders should Buy Dec Bean Oil at 2316 for a bounce , risk a close under 2287 for two days in a row.
Resistance is near 2419 then 2450 , above that 2472 offers some resistance , as does 2503 to 2519 Sell at 2512 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.
Early support is at 260 3/4. Buy Dec corn at 260 , risk a close under 254 for three days in a row. Below that 249 should hold, buy at 249 , risk 5 cents.
Resistance is near 269 , sell at 269 1/4 Risk a close over 275 for three days in a row. More Selling should begin near 281 then 284 3/4. Traders should sell at 280, 'till the cows come home' risk a close over 288 for three days in row.
Nearby Support is at 356, buy at 354 3/4 risk a close under 344 for three days in a row. More support should appear near 353.5 and 350 ...Buy at 350 risk 7 cents.
Resistance is near 363 , a close over 363 augurs for a thrusd to 371 tgo 375 , sell at 375 , risk a close over 381 for two days in a row.
The Satisfying Softs
Dec Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7215
Support should be evident at 7175 and 7160 ,below that 7090 should contain the break...Resistance is near 7205 and 7270 , a close over 7177 is friendly , a close over 7250 should cause short covering and a rally to 7340 to 7370 . beyond that 7420 offers good sellers..., sell at 7420 , risk a close over 7470 for three days in a row...
Resistance is near 1203 and 1211 , sell at 1210 , risk a close over 1213 for three days in a row. Additional resistance should appear near 1232 sell at 1232 , risk a close over 1238 for two days in a row.
Support should appear near 1185 then 1171, buy at 1171 risk a close under 1164 for three days in a row. More Support is near 1146 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .
Early support is near 159.50 then 157.70 Buy Dec Coffee at 157. 70 risk a close under 156.90 for two days in a row. More Support should appear near 155.35 then 152.50 ...
Resistance is near 162.70 and 162.95 with 163.15 above that... An extended Rally or close over 163.2 augurs for a thrust to 168.90. Buy Dec Coffee at 163.30 Stop ....Beyond that 169.60 then 173.10 offer resistance . Sell at 173.10 risk a close over 174.20 for two days n a row . More resistance is near 180.80, sell at 180.80 , risk a close over 182.30 for two days in a row.
Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.
November Orange Juice
Early Resistance is near 7670, above that 7830, sell at 7830, risk a close over 8020 for two days in a row. Support should appear near 7320, buy at 7340 for as bounce , risk 125 pts. More Support should appear near 7155, traders should buy at 7155 for turn higher, risk a close under 7070 for three days in a row.
Support is near 1654 then 1644 ,where traders should buy for a turn, risk a close under 1640 for two days in a row. More support is at 1615 to 1609 and 1586, buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.
Resistance is near 1694, a close over or extended rally above 1696 indicates a rally to 1744 then 1760 , sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.
The Lively Livestock
December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920
Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6627 then 6590 and the 6527 to 6507 region. Resistance is near 6667 then 6737 and 6757. A close over 6667 is friendly , a close over 6737 for more than a day or two is Buliish for a pop to 6857... Hearty Traders should add to the longs on a higher open on Monday , Buy at 6677 stop...
A close under 6577 is negative..
Spreaders should maintain Positions in long Dec Short June Cattle ,Recommended Spread Position , long Dec cattle , Short Dec hogs should Hold. Stay Tuned.
October Feeder Cattle
Resistance is near 7740, then 7767 and 7782, a close over 7742 or 7785 is friendly rally to 7835 to 7852. with an eventual target of 7947 if a higher market occurs. Beyond that 8032 offers resitance , sell there , risk a close over 8047 for two days in a row...l
Early Support is at 7685,Buy at 7687 , risk a trade under 7637..Below that 7650 and 7580 buy there risk a close under 7560.
Early support is near 6335 and 6355 , maintaining a posture over 6355 is friendly for a rally 6502. Traders should Buy Dec hogs , on the open monday at 6357 or better stay tuned...Support below should appear near 6317 then 6245 and 6192..
Resistance is 6435 then 6480 to 6507.. Eventua;lly a rally back to 6620 is not out of the question... , sell there for a turn , risk a close over 6637 for two days in a row...Beyond that 6790 offfers resistance , sell at 6790 risk a close over 6837 for two days in a row...
Stay tuned ...
Early Support is at 6387, Buy there risk a close under 6230 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 6327 then 6237 , Below that 6087 should hold.
Resistance is near 6530 , a close or trade over over 6437 is friendly for a 'pop' to 6530 More reistance is and indicates a move to the 6667 and 6827 , sell at 6842 for a turn lower, risk 80 pts Beyond that , if the Bacon get's hot Sell at 7002 for a position, risk a close over 7177 for three days in a row
Trade Accordingly .
U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.
Early support next week is at 116-16 , 116-06 and 115-30 an extended trade under or close under 115-30 is negative, and indicates a decline towards the 115-10/ 115-08 region, below that 114-30 where minor support rests. Failure there indicates a decline to 114-13 should trade , Buy Dec Bonds at 114-05 for a bounce only ,risk 10 pts. A close under 114-05 indicates a slip towards 113-05 , where traders can buy for a turn higher , risk a close under 112-28 for two days in a row.
Friday's 'Sloppy Action' indicates this scenerio is more likely than not especially if the 115 region cannot hold...
Resistance is at 116-30 beyond that 117-27 to 117-30 offers resistance, sell Dec bonds at 117-24 , risk a close over 118-02 for two days in a row. Beyond that a trade to 118-12 is likely , sell at 118-16 and risk 10 pts. Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned ....
Pick Your Poison ....and fasten the seatbelts...
Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early and critical support is 973.70 and 972.10 Below that 970.60. A close under 970.60 indicates a slip towards the 967.35 then 964.10/ 963.60 and the 962.50 region failure there indicates a slip towards 961.90 and 961.10 where buyers should appear.if not and it gets sold a slip towards 958.15/ 957.85 is likely , below that supoport lies at 954.20 to 953.25 , buy at 954.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned... Below that 952.60 is likely to trade. Failure at 952.60 basis the close indicates indicates a slip to 946.90 to 944.50 where traders should buy for a good turn higher , risk a trade under 942.10.., Below that 934.70 then 929.50 and 927.40 offer support Buy at 929 risk 200 pts Failure to hold 927.40 is negative and should yeild a decline towards the 923 / 918.40 region with 915.60 Below that ... If a Sharp selloff does occur (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....
If by chance it gets real ugly Buy at 886 to hold....
Resistance should appear near 977.50 to 977.90 , sell at 977.50 for a quick turn. 200 pts. or a trade over 977.90 for 10 minutes... Above that 982.10 offers resistance Beyond that 982.90 and 983.70 offer resistance as does 985.20 ..Above that 987.10 /30 offers resistance , beyond that 992.10 is likely , with Resistance at 993.10 to 993.70 which should cap any rally for a bit...
* Failure to close over 97720 to 977.90 is negative for a slip towards the .961.10 support region.
Holding above 985.20 is friendly for a move to 987 to 992.80
Failure at 985.20 is negative for a pull back into Fridays range...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 8029 , below that 8018.8 and 7991 to 7987.5 offer support , failure to maintain a posture over 7991/ 7987 is negative for a slip to 7954 then 7939 and 7929/7913 where good Support rests a close under 7929 is negative for a pull back towards the 7905 and eventually 7889 and 7864 which should hold any break ....if not a decline towards the 7770 region is likely .
Resistance is near 8044 and 8054 a clsoe over 8054 is needed to maintain a good posture .. the Bulls would be happier with a close over 8082 to firm it up a bit.. however ressitance is firm near 8112 to 8119 and 8134 to 8141... , beyond that 8178 should offer resitance as does 8194 to 8223..
A close under 8029 is negative.. a close under 8080 is unfriendly..
Happy Trading and Remember -When in doubt Get out-
10-04-1997 5:10 PM EST
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