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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk"
--Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--



Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook
November 2nd 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Sunday November 2nd 1997 11:00 AM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is at 8314 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a bounce , risk 30 pts. Below that 8267 then 8236 offer support. Buy at 8229 for a position , risk a close under 8190.
Early Resistance is near 8409, a close over augers for a trade to 8484, beyond that 8617 is likely. Sell Short at 8625 for a turn lower, risk a close over 8668 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec Swiss Franc
Early support should appear at 7170 /7162 failure there indicates a decline to 7112 where day traders can buy at 7117 , and risk 35 pts. More support should appear near 7010 to 6991 , Buy at 6991 for a bounce risk a trade under 6955. Below that a test of 6836 is likely , buy at 6836 and risk 35 points...

Resistance begins at 7202 to 7212 , Hearty Traders should sell at 7204 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7265..Failure to breach the 7204 basis the close or a close under 7170 is negatve and more conservative traders should sell if that occurs..A close over 7265 augurs for a trade up to 7302 to 7312 then 7378 .Go short at 7428 for a position risk a close over 7486 for two days in a row .. Beyond that 7587 should cap any further rally...

Pick Your Posion

Dec. British: Recommended Position Short at 164.20 (10-27)
Support is at 166.50 below that 16550 and 164.20 A close under 165.30 indicates a decline to 163.40 then 162.60. Resistance is near 167.20 and 167.86 above that 168.90 offers firm resistance...beyond that 169.60 should cap the rally for now...

Trade accordingly..

Dec D-Mark
Support is near 5803 and 5792 below that 5753 to 5738 offers support .. Traders can buy at 5753 for a bounce , risk a close under 5728 ...below that 5716 should trade...A close under 5716 augurs for a test of 5653 .. if Dec D-Marks Fail.... look to Buy near 5578 for a turn higher , risk a close under 5550...
Nearby Resistance is at 5847 ..sell at 5855 , risk a close over 5927 initially. Additional Resistance should appar near 5903 and 5945...

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar Recommended Position Long at 7171 (10-27)

Support should appear near 7103 and 7088 to 7074, Below that 7059 to 7046 should stop the decline...Resistance is near 7143 and 7170, beyond that 77200 and 7247 to 7265 offer selling pressure. A close over 7242 augurs for a rally to 7328 , sell at 7337 , risk a close over 7343 for two days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold
Nearby support is at 311.4 and 301.5 to 298.10 Resistance is 318 then 321.Traders can Buy at 202.5 , risk a close under 297 for three days in a row.

Conservative Traders Should Buy April 340 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper Recommended Position , long at 9540 and 9450. (10-21)
Nearby support is at 9020 and 8965 .. traders should buy at 8965 , risk a close under 8930..Below that 8795 and 8625 offer support. Resistance is at 9360 and 9665 a close over 9645 augurs for a test of 9780.

January Platinum Recommended Position Long at 414 (10-24)
Nearby support appear near 403.8 and 399.70 , below that Traders should buy at 391 , risk a close under 385 for two days in a row...Resistance is near 410 , a close over 410 if friendly and indicates a test of 419. Beyond that 425 ti 428 offers resistance.

December Silver Recommended Position Long at 492. (10-20)
Early support is at 466, below that 460.5 offers support. Below that traders should buy at 453 for a position, risk a close under 444 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 481, however a close over is friendly for a rally to 500..Beyond that 507 and 522 offer resistance...

Friendly Buy Dips

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Recommended Position Long at 2238 (10-06)
Early support is at 2100 below that 2075 and 2061 offer support buy at 2062 turn higher , risk a close under 2034, Below that 1961 should considered buying regions ,buy at 1953 risk a close under 1945 for two days in a row.

Resistance should appear near 2125 and 2148 /2150 a close over 2150 augurs for a pop' to 2197 beyond that a trade to 2219 is likely.. A close over 2226 is friendly.

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position long at 6240 (10-06)

Early support is near 5935, buy at 5955 and risk a close under 5855, Below that 5800 offers support and day traders may wish to assume longs at 5775 for a bounce only , risk a trade under 5720, below that 5680 offers support , traders should consider buying near 5680 if able...risk a close under 5635. Resistance is near 6155 and 6175 close over 6180 augurs for a trade to 6260.Stay tuned

Dec Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 5790 , buy at 5790 , risk a close under 5715 Belwo that Support should appear nera the 5640 region with more located near 5530 Buy at 5555 , risk a lcose under 5490...Resistance is near 5990, Beyond that 6090 offers resistance as does 6190 , sell at 6190 risk a close over 6260...

Friendly.


The ‘Grande’ Grains

January Beans
Early Resistance is near 700 traders can sell at 700 1/2 for a turn , risk 4 cents and stasy tuned..
more resistance is near 707 1/2 beyond that 714 1/4 offer Resistance ..Traders Should Sell at 714 , risk a close over for two days in a row. Beyond that 729 and 742 offer Good Resistance ...Sell at 742 and risk a close over 747 of two days in a row...Support is at 692 and 687 a close under 687 augurs for as slip to 669 whre traders can Buy for a 'Bounce', risk 6 Cents. Below that 659 offers support a close under that indicates a trade to 646 where hearty traders can go long for a turn higher , risk a close under 632 initially...

Dec Soybean Meal
Support should appear at 218 Buy there , risk 4.00 Early Resistance is near 227 and 229 , sell at 229, risk 4.00.

Dec Soybean Oil Recommended Position , short at 2552
Early support is at 2480 buy at 2469 , risk a close under 2420 below that 2370 should hold , buy at 2370 and risk 70 pts.
Resistance is near 2555 and 2568 with 2580 above that , Traders should sell at 2580 , risk a clos over 2620..

Dec Corn
Early support is at 276 1/4, buy at and 276 3/4 , risk a trade under 271 ... A close under 271 indicates a failure and slip to the 266 to 262 region , Below that 256 should hold , Buy at 256 , risk a close under 251 Resistance is near 281 94 and 288 traders can sell at 288 use a 294 stop.. basis the close..Beyond that a trade to 301 is likely...

December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 357 below that 351 should hold .. Traders can buy for a position at 351 , risk a close under 347 ..below that 335 should hold , go long at 335 , risk 6 cents...Resistance is near 368 a close over augurs for a thrust to 373 traders can sell at 373 , risk 5 cents , beyond that 382 offers good resistance as does 387 sell at 387 risk a close over 392

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton
Resistance is near 7320 a close over augurs for a trade to 7425, sell at 7425 , risk a close over 7540 for three days in a row...
Support is at 7200 and 7160 , go long at 7190 , risk a close under 7140 ..below that 7020 should hold...Buy at 7020 risk a trade under 6920..

March Sugar Recommended position Short at 1203 (10-29)
Resistance is near 1243 , beyond that 1268 and 1279 to 1282 offer resistance Support is near 1238 and 1236 , a close under 1236 is negative for a pullback to 1217 to 1202 and 1189 ..More Support is near 1163 , buy at 1169 risk a close under 1164 for two days in a row.

December Coffee
Early support is near 147.30 below that 145.40, buy at 145.60 , risk ..a trade under 144.40 ..below that 142.70 offers support as does 14040 buy at 140.40 for a bounce , risk 350 pts.. Below that 135 should hold.

Resistance is near 148.90 and 150.40 and 156.90 a close over 156.90 augurs for a trade to 158.50 and 160.40 with 164.90 above that..beyond that 16890 offer selling pressure .. sell at 168.90 risk a close over 17100 above that 17500 should trade.

Tradwers should go long if Dec Coffee closes over 148.90 ...Hearty Traders can go long with a 149.70 Buy Stop on Monday...

Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.


December Cocoa
Support is near 1562 then 1553 and 1546 ...Below that Buy at 1535 and risk 30 pts. Below that support should appear near 1529 , close under indicates a slip to 1473 , buy at 1473 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.Resistance is near 1612 and 1616 A close over 1616 augurs for a test of 1657 and 1665 , sell at 1665 risk a close over 1690 for two days in a row..Beyond that a trade to 1728 is likely...

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6677 (10-06)and 6920 (9-17)
Long Dec Short June at -165. (9-02)
Support should appear at 6732, Buy there for a turn higher , risk a trade under 6652. where additional support remains at 6667 and 6657...Below that 6612 should hold ...Resistance is near 6812 a close over 6812 , augurs for a thrust to the 6882./ 6897 region.

A close over 6777 is friendly

Be long...

December Hogs
Early support is near 6192 , traders can buy at 6192 , risk 40 pts.. Below that 6087 offers support , buy at 6087 , risk a close under 6022.. Resistance is 6287 and 6347 .. Traders should sell at 6400 ,risk a close over 6487...Beyond that a test of 6527 is likely.. then 6645 where Traders can sell for a good turn lower,risk a close over 6675 for two days in a row.

Feb Bellies

Early Resistance is at 6507 ..sell at 6507 ...

above that 6537 and 6577 offer resistance ..beyond that traders should sell at 6647 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6727 for three days in a row. Above that 6802 should trade ....sell at 6802 for a position..and stay tuned... Support is near 6430 /6417 a close under indicates a test of 6347 .. below that 6237 and 6212 offers support , buy at 6192 for a bounce , risk 50 pts.. Below that 6062 should trade ...
Slightly Bearish..

Trade Accordingly

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Early support is at 118-06. A close under 118-06 indicates a slip towards 117-17 then 117-06 ..Failure of 117-05 basis the close augurs for a pull back to 116-08 below that 115-14 and 115-07 offer support , a close under 115-07 id negative and should yeilkd a decline to 114-22 and 114-05 and 113-22 where traders can buy for a turn higher , risk a close under 112-30 for two days in a row. Resistance is at 119-06 and 119-17 with 119-14 above that. traders can sell at 119-11 , risk a close over 119-22 for two days in a row...Above that resistance should raise it's head near 120-06 sell at 120-06 and risk 15 pts.

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dec SP500
On the Downside, Early and critical support is 923.60 below that 922.80 offer good early support ..., buy at 922.80 for a bounce , risk 350 pts. Below that 916.30 to 914 offers a buying region Buy at 915.60 for a turn higher , risk a trade under 913.80 Below that 910.70 offer supports ..failure there indicates a slip to 900.50 Buy at 900.50 risk a trade under 896.40. Good Support should appear in the 891.00 region Below that Buy at 885.60, risk a trade under 881.60 ...If that fails a slip to 868 is likely Support should appear at 868.40, Risk a close under 866.80 .. below that 859 should hold .. Buy at 859 risk a close under 856 for two days in a row as a Failure there indicates a decline to 825 ....

On the Upside Resistance should appear near 932.20 , a close over 934.70 augurs for a thrust to 938.80 and 942.90 with 944.50 above that , Firm Resistance is near 947.60 , sell at 947.60 for a turn lower, risk a close over 948.80 , beyond that resistance should appear near 952.60 and 954.20..sell at 954.10 risk a trade over 958.80.. Beyond that 962.50 and 964.10 offer resistance sell at 964.00 ..and stay tuned for the stop...

Trade Accordingly and Carefully...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average(cash)
Early Support is 77422 to 7414 ..if that fails 7364 to 7342.offers support..below that 7288 to 7256 should hold .Below that 7119 to 7060 should stop the break.. Resistance is near 7497 and 7547, beyond that 7587 should trade.. A close over 7587 indicates a rally to the 7618 region where good resistance remains.. Beyond that 7675 is likely with 7749 and 7763 to 7777 acting as good resistance...A close over 7777 augurs for a 'pop' to 7862 where Sellers should appear..and cap the rally ... However it the Dow still rolls forward 7901 should trade .. above that 7939 to 7954 offers resistance and should cap a rall..

Happy Trading

Bill

11-02-1997 4:57 PM est

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