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"If a man is both wise and lucky he will not make the same mistake twice.
But he will make anyone of the ten-thousand brothers and cousins of the original"
--Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--



Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook
November 16th 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Sunday November 16th 1997 6:00 AM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec-Yen Recommended Position Long at 8042
Nearby support is at 7991, below that day traders can buy a break Mon or tues at 7954, risk 25 pts. Below that 7904 and 7864 to 7836 act as near term support below.
Early Resistance is near 8112 to 8119 a close over 8119 augers for a trade to 8134.. beyond that 8194 is likely. Sell Short at 8314 for a turn lower, risk a close over 8347 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec Swiss Franc
Early support should appear at 7146 /7143 failure there indicates a decline to 7096 More support should appear near 7088 , Buy at 7088 for a bounce risk a trade under 7040. Below that a test of 7003 is likely , buy at 7004 and risk 35 points...under that 6959 should hold basis the close ...

Resistance begins at 7177 Hearty Traders should sell at 7177 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7204. A close over 7204 augurs for a trade up to 7242 to 7256 Beyond that.Go short at 7335 for a position risk a close over 7342 for two days in a row .. Beyond that 7587 should cap any further rally...

Pick Your Posion

Dec. British:
Support is at 168.90 below that 16720 should hold , buy at 167.20, risk a close under 166.80.. under that 165.50 should trade A close under 165.30 indicates a decline to 164.20 ....

Resistance is near 169.60 , sell there risk a close over or stop over 170.76 above that 171.46 should trade Traders can go short at 173.10, risk a close over 173.80...however I prefer to only execute this trade this coming week..

Trade accordingly..

Dec D-Mark
Early support is near 5766, below that 5744 or 5729 to 5716 offers a buying oppurtunity Traders can buy at 5729 for a bounce, risk a close under 5728 ...below that 5716 should trade...A close under 5716 augurs for a test of 5653 .. if Dec D-Marks Fail.... look to Buy near 5578 for a turn higher , risk a close under 5550..

Nearby Resistance is at 5804 beyond that sell at 5837 , risk a close over 5866 initially. Additional Resistance should appear near 5887 and 5945 beyond that 6000, sell at 6023 for a position risk a close over 6035 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Buy near 7055, risk a close under 7003. Traders should go long on a close over 7143, beyond that 7260 offers a selling region, sell at 7260 ,risk a close over 7280..

Precious Metals

Dec Gold Recommended Position Long at 302.5 Hold

April Gold
Buy April gold at 304.20 Support should appear near 299.9 and 297..Resistance is 3309.8 and 314.and 320 beyond that 326 offers resistance..A close over 309 augurs for a trade back to 315 then 320...

A higher close on Monday is friendly...

Conservative Traders Should Buy April 330 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper Recommended Position , long at 8965

March Copper
Nearby support is at 8870, buy at 8870, risk a trade under 8710.... traders should go long if a close over 8965 occurs. Resistance is at 8965 and 9045 to 9085. Beyond that 9250 offers a selling region, sell at 9315 risk a close over 9410 for two days in a row..

January Platinum
Nearby support appear near 376 buy at 377.40, risk a clsoe under 373 for tow days in a row.. Resistance is near 391 and 396, sell at 396 , risk a close over 403..a close over 410 if friendly

Trade Accordingly


March Silver
Early support is at 503 and 501, buy at 501 for a good bounce, risk a close under 496. Below that 485 offer good support, buy at 486 , risk a close under 477 for three days in a row...

Resistance is near 524 and 531, beyond that 536 should trade, a close over 536 augurs for a trade to 552. sell at 552, risk a close over 558...

Friendly Buy Dips

The Exciting Energies

Jan Crude Recommended Position Long at 2238 (10-06)
Early support is at 2090 below tha buy at 2075, risk a close under 2042 for two days in a row..Below that 1988 should considered a buying region, buy at 1984 risk a close under 1945 for two days in a row.

Resistance should appear near 2125 and 2150 to 2154 a close over 2155 augurs for a pop' to 2170 beyond that a trade to 2219 is likely.. A close over 2226 is bullish for an assault on 2350 to 2500...

Bullish....

Jan Unleaded
Early support is near 5995 below that buy 5935 and risk a close under 5855, Below that 5815 offers support and day traders may wish to assume longs at 5805for a bounce only , risk a trade under 5730, below that 5690 offers support , traders should consider buying near 5680 for a position ...risk a close under 5635 for tow days in a row..
Resistance is near 6085 and 6130 close over 6135 augurs for a trade to 6190 beyond that 6255 should trade... Sell at 6270 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6340....Stay tuned. Above that 6480 offers resistance as does 6520 ...sell at 6530 ,risk a close over 6590...

Friendly ...Trade Accordingly...

Jan Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 5955 below that buy at 5905 risk a close under 5855. Below that Support should appear near the 5770 region with more located near 5655 Buy at 5655, risk a close under 5570...

Resistance is near 6080, Beyond that 6130 and 6160 offers resistance as does 6240, sell at 6265 risk a close over 6340....

Friendly..Buy Dips...


The ‘Grande’ Grains

January Beans
Early Resistance is near 734 traders can sell at 735 for a turn , risk a close over 738 1/2 for three days in a row and stay tuned..
More resistance is near 748 and 754 1/2Traders Should Sell at 754 , risk a close over 762 for two days in a row. Early Support this week is near 720 Below that 707 to 706 should hold... Buy at 707 risk a close under 695. A slip under 694 indicates a slide to 679, buy at 679. Risk a close under 674..under that 669 is wehre traders can Buy for a 'Bounce', risk 6 Cents. A close under that indicates a trade to 654 where hearty traders can go long for a turn higher, risk a close under 642 initially...

Trade Accordingly...

March Soybean Meal
Support should appear at 220, a close under augurs for a trade down to 214 Buy at 214, risk 4.00 Resistance is near 224 and 226, above that sell at 232, risk a close over 240

March Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2642 and 2620 buy at 2620 , risk a close under 2602 Below that 2560 to 2552 should hold, if not a trade to 2516 should occur. Buy at 2516 and risk a close under 2508 for two days in a row.
Early Resistance is near 2707 above that 2738 to 2755 offers resistance , sell at 2742 risk a close over 2775 for two days in a row.

Dec Corn Recommended Position Long at 276 3/4
Early support is at 269 1/4 below that buy at 265 1/4 , risk a close under 259 3/4 for three days in a row. Below that 251 is likely to trade.Resistance is near 273 3/4 and 275 beyond that 278 and 281 offer resistance ..traders can sell at 285 use a 291 stop.. basis the close..Beyond that a trade to 301 is likely...

March Wheat
Nearby Support is at 351 Traders can buy for a position at 351 , risk a close under 346 for three days in a row....below that 338 should hold , go long at 338 , risk 6 cents...Resistance is near 359 a close over augurs for a thrust to 364 above that traders can sell at 371 , risk 5 cents beyond that 379 offers good resistance as does 383 sell at 383 risk a close over 391 for two days in a row..

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton
Resistance is near 7305 sell at 7325 risk a close over 7370 beyond that more reistance is near 7465, sell at 7480. Risk a close over 7535 for two days in a row
Support is at 7175, buy at 7175. Risk a close under 7140 for three days in a row..Below that 7080 should hold , buy at 7080 risk a close under 6990 for two days in a row..

March Sugar
Resistance is near 1238, beyond that 1268 should cap the rally sell at 1268 Risk a close over 1277 for three days in a row. Support is near 1230 a close under augurs for a slip to 1190, buy at 1195 risk a close under 1170 for three days in a row.

March Coffee
Early support is near 151.30. Hearty traders should buy at 151.30 risk a close under 148.80 where buyers should appear...below that 146.50 offers support as does 144.35, buy at 144.60 risk ..a trade under 142.00

Resistance is near 152.90 and 153.60, a close over 153.60 augurs for a test of 156.25 and with 162.15 as the likely target... Sell at 162.15 risk a close over 164.20 for two days in a row...Beyond that 168.20 and 169.60 offer resistance . If the Coffee Boils over sell at 172.10 risk a close over 173.30.

Trade accordingly...

Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.

March Cocoa
Support is near 1615 and 1604 buy an early break at 1607, risk a close under 1576 ..Below that Buy at 1538 and risk 30 pts. Resistance is near 1707 and 1724 sell at 1731 , risk a close over 1738 for two days in a row. Beyond that a trade to 1774 is likely.

March Lumber
Resistance is near 329 and 330.50 above that sell at 331.50, risk a close over 337 where more resistance is located. Support is near 323.30 and 320.70 , buy at 320.70 , risk a close under 315..for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6732 (11-03) 6677 (10-06)and 6920 (9-17)Long Dec Short June at -165. (9-02)

Support should appear at 6695, Buy there for a turn higher , risk a trade under 6652. where additional support remains at 6662 and 6657...Below that 6617 should hold ...Resistance is near 6742 and 6767 a close over 6767 augurs for a thrust to the 6807./ 6837 region. Above that good resistance should appear near 6852, a close over 6852 indicates a test of 6920 ....

A close over 6690 is friendly

Be long...

Feb Cattle
Support is near 6822, buy at 6822 risk a close under 6740 initially. A close over 6890 indicates a test of 7012, sell at 7012 for a quick turn lowe..risk 70 pts...

December Hogs
Early support is near 6227 below that traders can buy at 6132 , risk 100 pts.. Below that 6102 offers support as does 6057 Buy at 6057.. risk a close under 6032.for two days in a row.... Resistance is 6347 and 6417, sell at 6417 ,risk a close over 6487...Beyond that a test of 6527 is likely.. then 6655 where Traders can sell for a good turn lower. Risk a close over 6717 for two days in a row.

Feb Hogs
Buy at 6160 ,risk a close under 6090 for three days ina row...Sell near 6440, risk a close over 6512...

Feb Bellies
Support is near 5940 , buy at 5945 for a bounce risk 80 pts..Below that 5735 offers support , buy at 5730 risk a close under indicates a test of 5630. Resistance is near 6080 and 6125. A close over 6127 augurs for a test of 6412 ..beyond that traders can sell at 6542 , risk 120 pts. Above thast sell at 6777 , risk 100 pts..
Trade Accordingly

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Dec Bonds
Early support is at 117-17 .Failure of 117-17 basis the close augurs for a pull back to 116-19 where traders can buy for a turn higher , risk a close under 116-17 A close under 116-17 augurs for a slip to 115-21 , where traders can buy for a bounce , risk a close under 115-04 ... Resistance is at 118-17 and 118-28 , sell at 118-26 , risk a close over 119-18 above that. traders can sell at 120-06 where resistance should raise it's head, risk 15 pts.

Dec SP500
On the Downside, Early and critical support is 933.60 Below that 931.60 and 923.60 traders can buy at 923.60 and hold, initially risk a close under 922.60 for two days in a row...below that support should appear near 917.60 and the 915.60 to 914 region Buy at 917.60 for a turn higher , risk a close under 913.60 Below that 910.00 offer supports ..failure there indicates a slip to 900.90 Buy at 900.90 risk a trade under 896.40. Good Support should appear at 893.90. Buy at 893.90 , risk a close under 885.90. If that fails a slip to 870 is likely and Support should appear at 861.40 and 858.90 Buy at 861 Risk a close under 856.00 for two days in a row...Failure there indicates a decline to 825 ....

On the Upside Resistance should appear near 934.70 a close over 934.70 augurs for a thrust to 938.80 and 942.90 with 944.50 above that 948.60 , beyond that resistance should appear near 950.10 and 952.60 sell at 950.10 risk a close over 954.30 .. Beyond that 955.50 and 958.304 offer resistance above that resistance should raise it's head near 962.50 to 964.10 sell at 964.00 ..and stay tuned for the stop...A close over 965 indicates a test of 970.60 and 973.70 with an outside chance of a test 980.90 occuring ... Sell at 980.90 and Hold....

Trade Accordingly and Carefully...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average(cash)
Early Support is 7551 if that fails 7489 offers support as does 7426 and 7389..below that 7342/7328 should hold. If not a decline to 7242/ 7226 is lkely. Under that 7137 / 7119 should stop the break.. Resistance is near the 7649 region where good resistance remains.. Beyond that 7675 is likely with 7738 and 7763 to 7777 acting as good resistance...A close over 7777 augurs for a 'pop' to 7805 and 7836 to 7864 where Sellers should appear..and cap the rally ... However it the Dow still rolls forward, 7901 should trade .. above that 7934 to 7954 offers resistance and should cap a rally.

Happy Trading

Bill

11-16-1997 9:00 PM est

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