THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
FURTHERMORE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERANT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITAIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSITE. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSLY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSLEY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..
On the Forex Front: The DEC Yen was up 58 pts on the week settling at 8860 Support is just below at 8859/8853 with more located 8835/8813 then 8747. Resistance is near 8906 and 8959 then 8994. Trade the range only....
The March Swiss Franc: On the week the SFH was dn 79 pts.
A test of 7200 is now likely over the medium term.
However a more two sided has developed offering nimble traders a chance to play both sides. Friday’s inability to sustain a higher close is evidence of this. As the stock Market was lower traders ran to buy the Swissy pushing up over 125 pts on the day. A good performance. However it then collapsed losing all the gains. Offering shorts a chance also..
For Next week Resistance is near 7724 and 7789.
Support comes in around 7592 and 7547.
The BPH sold off into our buy area last week on the week it was down over 300 pts. If you were agile enough to purchase the Sterling at the 16100 region recommended in Thursdays letter you were quickly rewarded. Sell BPH near 16550 and wait for a dip to rebuy.
Support is near 16280 to 16310,then 16060 should hold on any sharp selloff. Resistance is near 16460 and 16550 then 16890-16980 ...
The Precious Metals: The Best cure for low prices is low prices
Feb Gold was down over $ 4.00 on the week. Support is near 367 to 364 and resistance is near 373 to 378
We suggest you read today’s Special Report on Gold.
March Silver was actually up 2 cents on the week closing at 480.5 Support is at 469 to 474. Resistance is near 488 to 491. A close over 494 in March silver is Bullish for a move into the 511 price area.
Copper was down 375 pts last week. Our near term target for was hit over the last two weeks at the 104 region. We now want to buy on breaks as long as March Copper can maintain a posture over 9600 to 9800. Support is at 9880 to 9820 then 9680 Resistance is near 10280 to 10480. We see Copper trading into the 110 to 114 region during 1997
The Exciting Energies;
Jan Crude was up $ 1.87 on the week. Shaking off all bad news, giving a Weekend Rule Buy Signal on Friday. Resistance is near 2595 to 2612 where we would take some profits and wait for a dip to rebuy. Support is near 2556 to 2645 then 2453.
January Heating Oil was up 109 pts on the week.
Resistance is near 7580 and 7605 then 7780. Support is at 7405 and 7733 then 7190.
We suggest selling into the rally to take profits on longs near 7580 to 7605.
A Gander at the Grains;
Jan Soybeans are sales on rallies, in our opinion. But as in the Swiss a two sided market enable us to trade each side. Support is 679 to 686 which should occur this week. Resistance is near 699 to 707. Sell with both hands at 721.....
March Corn sell Rallies... A target to the downside of 255 to 258 is now in the cards. Resistance is near 268
to 269 wt. More at 275 to 278. Support is at 259 to 261.
March Wheat Support is at 370 Resistance is at 387 1/2 trade the range ....
Softs..
March Coffee will be higher this week in my opinion.
Probably moving up to test The 110 region. March Coffee should find Support at 10240 and 100.60. Resistance is near 104.40 and 104.90 and 106.25 If March Coffee closes over 104.50 be long....
Sugar can be bought on Dips, March has support at 1023 Resistance is near 11065 and more at 1075.
Jan OJ; We still are playing a waiting game.
However we believe a rally to the 108 area will occur shortly.. Next Week Support is at 9385 and Resistance is 9880.
March Cotton is a buy on dips, there is a chance we could be starting a leg up in March Cotton and contend that a rally to the 80 cent region is likely, if it holds.. |for the week Support is at 7480 to 7450 and Resistance is near 7730 to 7750...
In the livestock Sector
The Feb Bellies are a sale on rallies ....Most traders think we are crazy but on the week. Over the last two weeks Bellies have rallied over 300 pts and on the week they are down almost 400 pts, we prefer to sell rallies...If and when they break the trendlines the door will not big enough for most Traders to escape with their heads and pocket books in tact... Next week PBG has support at 7385 to 7442 Resistance is near 7890 to 7915 with more at 8080 to 8125.
We have been recommending Buying May Bellies and Selling Feb when May is 100 or more under on Friday the spread closed well. Take profits at Feb and May even to 100 over....
Feb Lean Hogs put a Double top in last week, we have been and we remain bearish pork in 1997. Feb Hogs have support at 7650 and 7555 next week. Resistance is near 7752 and 7810 to 7850.
We advocate buying July or June hogs and Selling Feb ....We hope to see June even with Feb where we would accept profits if able..
We are going to analyze the Cattle Market on Monday so look for the report then. However we are friendly and maintain sharp breaks can be bought....
The Bond Market is like a nervous nellie....
Friday’s flush and recovery were significant to say the least. One thing it did tell us is that it is very very vulnerable now more than ever. March bonds traded at levels it should not have, if it is going to sustain an another leg up.
Next week March Bonds have good support at 112-02 to 112-08, under that we would Buy USH at 111-17 for a 2-3 day bounce. Resistance is near 114-02 And 114-08 with more at 114-23 and more sellers at 115-02
to 115-11. Trade accordingly....
The DEC SP500 has the same problem....
We see another test of Friday’s lows shortly....
For Monday supports is near 736.30 then 734.20 and 732.80 to 731.90. Resistance is near at 741.40 to 742.80. More sellers are at 744.30 and 747.85 Then 748.80 to 751.30
Trade accordingly .....
Happy Trading
Bill