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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II

April 18th 1998

 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the

unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--"

Reminiscences of a Stock operator.

 

 

 

Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II

Sunday April 19th, 1998

06:00 AM

 

On the Frenzied Forex Front

June J-Yen

June Yen should find early support at 7640 to 7624 traders can buy at 7640. Initially risk a trade under 7587. under that support should appear at 7513 where Traders can buy for a position at 7524. Risk a close Under 7487 for three days in a row. Resistance should appear at 7724 and 7762 where short term traders can sell at 7777 for a quick turn lower and risk a close over 7808 for two days in a row.

Beyond that 7912 offers resistance as does 7939 to 7950 , sell at 7939 risk a close over 7954 three days in a row.

 

 

 

June Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6750

Support should appear at 6714 and 6691 below that support should appear at 6673 below that 6647. A failure there indicates a test 6614 then 6591 to 6577. Traders should Go long for a bounce at 6597. Risk a close under 6576 for three days In a row. Below that a slip to the 6509 / 6483 region is likely, Position traders should buy for the ‘Pull’ at 6483 risk a close under 6474 for three days in a row.

Resistance should first begin at 6747 to 6755, an extended trade over or close over 6755 augurs for a 'pop' to 6809 to 6814. Traders should go long if a close over 6755 occurs. Beyond that resistance is near 6836 to 6847 and the 6906 to 6919 region. Traders should Sell short at 6919, and risk a close over 6919 for three days in a row.

 

June British Pound:

Support is at 167.20 and 165.50. Traders can go long at 167.20 , risk a close under 165.50 for three days in a row. Below that 164.20 offers support. Go long at 164.20 risk a close under 16400. Below that 161.50 to 160.90 should hold.

Resistance is at 168.90 and 169.60. a close over 168.90 augurs for a test of 170.30 then 171.30, beyond that a test of 173.10 is likely. Traders should sell short at 173.10, risk a close over 173.80 for two days in a row.

Traders should go long on a close over 168.90.

June D-Mark.

Early support is at 5546 to 5541 , buy at 5546 , risk a trade under 5527, below that 5505 to 5492 offers a failure there indicates a test of 5461 then 5430 to 5418 , buy at 5418 for the ‘pull’ , risk a close under 5386. Resistance is at 5553 to 5577. A close over the 5553 to 5577 region augurs for a test of 5596 to 5611 region. Traders should go long if a close over 5553 occurs. Beyond 5615 resistance is near 5640 to 5653 then 5692, trader should sell short for a turn lower at 5692. Risk a close over 5717 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

 

June Canadian Dollar

Support is at 7003 and 6990 where traders should buy at 6997, risk a close under 6954 for two days in a row. Resistance should appear early at 7011, a close over 7011 augurs for a test of 7026. Beyond that resistance is near 7061 to 7074. A close over 7088 augurs for a test of 7143 where traders can short at 7138 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7171 for two days in a row.

 

 

Precious Metals

June Gold Recommended Position long at 312.50

Good Support is near 307.10, buy there for a day trade, risk $ 4.00. Below that 304.50 to 303.60 should hold. a failure there indicates a test of 298, traders can buy at 298.00 risk a close under 297 for three days in a row.

Resistance is 312.80, a close over augurs for a test of the 315.20 to 316.20 region.

Beyond that 321.30 to 324.30 offers resistance. A close over 315.70 is friendly for a rally to that region.

*Traders should go long or add to longs using a 315.70 stop close only buy stop, Eventually a test of 332 is not out of the question... If it holds

Friendly, Buy Dips.

 

July Copper:

Support is at 8405 to 8390, under that 8275 offers support. Traders should buy at 8300 risk a close under 8190 for two days in a row. Under that 7955 is likely to trade. a slip under 7955 augurs for a test of 7780 , where trader should go long for the ‘pull’ , risk a close under 7760 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 8480 to 8500, a close over 8500 is friendly for a 'pop' towards the 8665 to 8705 region. Beyond that a test of 8875 is likely to occur. Above that resistance is near 9255 , traders should sell short at 9315 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 9350 for two days in a row.

*Traders should go long on a close over 8500

 

July Platinum

Support is near 406.5, under that support is at 397.5 , failure there augurs for a slip to 394, traders should go long 394, risk a close under 390 for three days in a row.

Additional support is near 383, buy at 383 , risk a close under 380 for two days in a row. Resistance is at 416.5 , a close over augurs for a test of 426.5 A close over indicates a rally towards 432 and eventually 467.

Long Term Friendly

May Silver Recommended Position Long at 646 and 627.5

On the Downside: Support is at 619.5 to 618 below that traders should go long for a bounce near 608 and stay tuned. Beneath that 601 then 593 and 585 to 577 offer

support.

On the Upside resistance is at 641.5 , a close over 643 augurs for a test of 660 , a close over 662 augurs for a test of 687, stay tuned.

Traders should or assume a long position (or add) if a close over 643 occurs.

Be Long

 

 

 

 

 

The Exciting Energies

June Crude

Early support is at 1573. Below that Aggressive traders can buy at 1549, risk 30 cents.

Beneath that, 1535 offers more support. Under that 1525 offers' support, traders can buy at 1525, risk a close under 1484. A failure there indicates a test of 1421 where

hearty traders can Buy for the Pull risk a close under 1415 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 1601 then 1609 to 1615. A close over 1628 augurs for a test of 1656 More resistance is near the 1689 to 1696 region. a close over 1696 augurs for a test of 1756, sell at 1756 for a turn lower , risk a close over 1809 for two days in a row.

Friendly near term.

 

 

June Unleaded Gas

Support is near 5297 failure there augurs for a slip towards 5175 where traders can buy for a bounce, risk a trade under 5115. Below that support is at 5005, traders can Buy at 5005 for a turn higher. Risk a close under 4970 for two days in a row.

If June Unleaded declines to 4820, consider it a buying opportunity and

go long for the ‘Pull‘.

Resistance is near 5375, a close over 5355 augurs for a ‘pop’ to the 5553 to 5610 region. Beyond that resistance is near 5830 , traders should sell for a turn lower at 5805.

Risk a close over 5855 for three days in a row.

 

June Heating Oil

Support is near 4415 and 4370. Below that 4225 should hold. Traders can Buy at 4225 , risk a close under 4055 for two days in a row. Resistance near 4520 and 4615, a close over 4615 augurs for a test of 4660 , beyond that a trade to 4695/ 4715 is likely. A close over 4720 augurs for a test of 4905. Traders can go short at 4915, risk a close over 4930 for two days in a row.

 

 

Traders should go long using a 4620 stop close only.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ‘Grande’ Grains

Soybeans May Recommended Position long at 661

Traders should roll to July on Mondays open.

July Soybeans Recommended Position long 2 at 663

Early Support is at 641 and 634. Under that 628 and 622 offer support as does 608.

Early resistance this week is 648. Beyond that 653 offers resistance. A close over 653 augurs for a test 664. Beyond that 680 offer resistance ..

Long Term Friendly

August Beans Recommended Position Long at 632 Hold

Spread Long August Short Nov at 24 cents over Hold

May Soybean Meal Recommended Position long at 168.80 and 163.90

Support is 16210 and 160.80 under that 155.60 should contain the break.

Resistance is near 164.80 and 168.70 to 169.60. Beyond that 171.30 and 173.10

offers resistance.

A close over 165.50 is friendly.

July Soybean Oil 

Early support is at 2824 and 2815. Traders should buy at 2815 for a bounce higher. Risk a close under 2810.. Below that support is 2731. Resistance is near 2874 to 2883

Beyond that 2928 to 2937 offers resistance, readers can sell at 2933 for a turn lower, Risk a close over 2938 for two days in a row

 

May Corn Recommended Position Long at 271,276 3/4, 279 3/4 and 275 and 262 1/2

Support is should appear near 248 3/4 . Under that 243 3/4 and 242 1/2 offer support.

Resistance is near 252 1/2 and 253 3/4. A close over 254 augurs for a test of 258 then

260, Beyond that sellers will appear near 264 to 266.

May Wheat Recommended Positions , long at 338 3/4

Traders should Roll to July on Monday’s Open.

July Wheat Recommended Position Long at 342

Resistance begins near 317 1/2 , a close over augurs for a test of the 321 to 323 region. Beyond that resistance remains near 330, a close over 333 indicates a test of 340,.

Beyond that 347 offers resistance. Support should appear near 305 and 297,

below that 293 and 280 should hold. Traders can Go Long for the ‘Pull’ at 283.

 

 

 

 

 

The Satisfying Softs

 

July Cotton 

Support is 6305 and 6280. Trader buy for a bounce at 6280, risk a close under 6255, below that support should appear near 6120 and 5940. Resistance is at 6445 to 6470, beyond that 6570 to 6593 offer resistance. A close over 6575 augurs for a rally to 6770. Beyond that 6950 offers resistance. Traders can sell short at 6950 for a turn lower , risk a close over 7005 for two days in row.

 

July Sugar

Support is 847 to 852. Traders can go long at 852 for a quick turn higher, risk a close under 840 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 883 , a close over augurs for a test of 907 to 918. A close over 912 would indicate a test of 932 to 941, then 956. Traders can sell short at 968 for a turn lower , risk a close over 972 for two days in a row. Beyond that 1020 should trade.

July ‘the Monster’ Coffee 

On the DownSide, Early support is at 145.30, Buy at 145.30 and Hold.

Below that 143.60 offers support. Traders should buy at 143.60, risk a close under 142.10 for three days in a row. Below that Traders should go long at 138.70, risk a close under 134.60 for two days in a row.

On the Upside, Resistance is 146.10 and 148.55. A close over 148.60 augurs for a test of 149.60. Beyond that 151.05 offers resistance as does 152.30 and 153.60. A close over 153.60 augurs for a test of 156.30. Beyond that 159 to 161 should trade.

Trade Accordingly and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.

 

 

July Cocoa

Resistance is 1609 to 1615, a close over 1609 augurs for a test of 1633 to 1642 Traders should go long on a close over 1609. Beyond that 1655 and 1689 to 1696 offers resistance. Sell short at 1701 , risk a close over 1732 for three days in a row.

Early Support is near 1596. Below that support should appear near 1576 to 1569 Where hearty traders might be tempted to probe the long side. Buy at 1570, risk a close under 1542 for two days in a row.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Lively Livestock

June Cattle

Support is near 6762 Below that Traders should buy ‘with both hands’ at 6732, risk a close under 6657 for two days in a row. More support should appear near 6682 and 6657. Below that 6557 should hold.

Resistance is at 6802 and 6837, a close over 6837 augurs for a 'pop' to 6880 and 6912 beyond that 6972 and 7100 offer resistance.

Traders should go long on a close over 6837.

Long Term Friendly, Buy Dips.

June Hogs 

Support is at 5992 and 5952, a slip under augurs for a pullback towards 5902, Below that 5855 offers support . A close under 5855 indicates a test of 5802, traders should Go long at 5802 , risk a close under 5712 for three days in a row.

Resistance is near 6002 above that 6022 to 6035 offers resistance, a close over 6032 augurs for a trade to 6127 with a likely target of 6257.. if it holds. Traders should buy at 6037 stop close only.

Trade Accordingly.

May Pork Bellies

'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'

On the DownSide Early support is near 5945 and 5907, below that 5880 and 5855 offer support. Below that 5760 should hold. traders should buy at 5760 and stay tuned.

Below that 5640 and 5547 offer support. Under that Traders can buy at 5357 and Hold.

Risk a close under 5257 for two days in a row. additional buyers should appear near 5012 to 4950.

On the Upside Resistance is near 6022 to 6035 and 6062. An extended trade or close over 6117 augurs for a test of 6202 and 6337. Beyond that 6507 offers resistance.

Traders can Sell short at 6507 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 6592 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

Stay tuned for New Recommendations in the meat Complex

 

 

 

 

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

 

June 30 Yr. Bonds

Early Support is 121-02 to 120-29, however a close under is negative for a pull back towards 119-29, below that support should appear near the 119-12 to 119-02 to region.

A close under 119-02 is negative for a decline towards 118-22 and 118-15 where traders can buy for a bounce , risk 20 pts. and Reverse. An extended trade or close under 118-02 would indicate a slip to the 116-13 region with an outside chance of hitting

114-29.

Resistance is at 121-25 to 121-29> A close over 122-01 augurs for a test of 122-29 ,sell at 122-29 for a turn lower, risk a close over 123-08. More resistance should appear near 124-00, sell at 124-00 for a position and stay tuned for the stop. Beyond that

124-29 and 125-29 offers resistance sell short for a turn lower at 125-29 and Hold.

 

 

June SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1115.70

On the DownSide, Early Support is at 1130 and 1128.50. Below that 1120.20 offers support . A close under 1120.00 indicates a slip to 1115.50 , a close under 1115.50 is negative for a pull back towards the 1107.70 region. A close under 1107 indicates a slip towards 1104.60 then 1101. A close under 1096 augurs for a slip to 1088.70 where support should be evident.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1133 and 1136 to 1136.20 , sell at 1136.20 risk a close over 1139.70 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance should appear near 1143.80. Beyond that 1150 is likely to trade. Beyond that 1164.00 to 1169.00 should Cap a Rally Sell at 1164 and hold.

* A close under 1120.00 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'. should Go Short.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Initial support is 9156 to 9140 below that 9121 is critical, a close under 9121 augurs for a pullback towards the 9084 and 9060 / 9044 regions. A close under 9041 augurs for a test of 8964 to 8934. Below that 8856 offers support. If that fails a slip to 8798 or lower is likely.

Resistance is at 9224 and 9236 beyond that 9316 , beyond that 9331 to 9347 should bring out some sellers. Above that 9387 and 9429 offer resistance.

A ship in Harbor is Safe .. but that's not what ships are built for.

 

Happy Trading

Bill

Sunday April 19, 1998

8:00 PM

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