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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II

May 3, 1998

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II
Sunday May 03, 1998
11:00 AM

On the Frenzied Forex Front
June J-Yen

June Yen should find early support at 7513 and 7497 to 7486. Traders can buy for a position at 7491. Risk a close Under 7487 for three days in a row. Below that support is near 7414 and 7342. Go long for a go long for a good 2-3 day bounce at 7342. Risk a close under 7328 for two days in a row. Resistance should first appear at 7591 and 7601. A close over 7601 augurs for a test of 7675 to 7689. Traders can sell at 7688 for quick turn lower. Risk 20 pts. Beyond that 7719 to 7727 and 7777 offer resistance.

Beyond that 7819 should trade. A close over 7836 augurs for a test of 7938. Traders should go short at 7936, risk a close over 7954 for three days in a row.

June Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6800

Support should appear at 6741 and 6731. Traders can Buy or add at 6742 for a position, risk a close under 6731. Beneath that support should appear at 6681 below that 6641. A failure there indicates a test of 6591 to 6577. Traders should Go long for a bounce at 6597. Risk a close under 6576 for three days In a row. Below that a slip to the 6509/ 6483 region is likely, Position traders should buy for the ‘Pull’ at 6483 risk a close under 6474 for three days in a row.

Resistance should first begin at 6755 and 6781. An extended trade over 6755 augurs for a 'pop' to 6809 to 6831.

Traders should add or go long if a close over 6755 occurs. Beyond that resistance is near 6836 to 6842 then 6880 and 6906 to 6919 region. Traders should Sell short at 6906, and risk a close over 6919 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly
June British Pound: Recommended Position Long at 1.6720

Support is at 1.6606 and 1.6550. Below that 164.20 offers support. Go long at 1.6420 risk a close under 1.6378. Below that 1.6150 to 1.6090 should hold.

Resistance is at 1.6658 to 1.6678 and 1.6720. A close over 1.6720 augurs for a test of 1.6890 and 1.6960. A close over 1.6890 augurs for a test of 1.7030 then 1.7130, beyond that a test of 1.7310 is likely. Traders should sell short at 1.7310, risk a close over 1.7380 for two days in a row.

Traders should go long, add on a close over 167.20.
June D-Mark.

Early support is at 5626, a close under augurs for a test of 5580 to 5577. Buy at 5577, risk a close under 5552, Below that 5505 to 5492 offers support. A failure there indicates a test of 5461 and 5430 buy at 5431 for the ‘pull,' risk a close under 5386. Resistance is at 5640 to 5658 and 5692, traders should sell short for a turn lower at 5692. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row. More Resistance is near 5747 and 5792.

Trade Accordingly

June Canadian Dollar Recommended Position Long at 6997

Support is at 6954 and 6945 Below that 6923 to 6906 should hold. Resistance should appear early at 6990 and 6995 to 7003 A close over 6995 augurs for a test of 7026.

Beyond that resistance is near 7045 and 7074 to 7088. A close over 7088 augurs for a test of 7143 where traders can short at 7138 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7171 for two days in a row.

A close over 6995 is friendly, traders should consider adding or going long if it occurs.

Precious Metals

June Gold Recommended Position long at 315.80

Good Support is near 302.70, a close under augurs for a slip to 298. Below that traders should have buy orders waiting at 294.50 for a turn higher, risk a close under 288 for three days in a row. Nearby Resistance is at 304.50 and 305.50, a close over 306.0 augurs for a test of 311 and 313.5 Beyond that 318.50 to 323 offers resistance.

July Copper: Recommended Position Long at 8565

Support is at 8495, under that 8405 and 8390 offer support. Beneath that 8345 and 8235 offer support. Below that traders should buy at 8135 risk a close under 8110 for two days in a row. Under that 7980 is likely to trade. A slip under 7955 augurs for a test of 7780, where trader should go long for the ‘pull,' risk a close under 7760 for two days in a row.

Nearby Resistance is at 8560 and 8590 to 8620, a close over 8620 augurs for a test of 8670 to 8680 and eventually 8735. Beyond that a test of 8855 is likely to occur. Above that resistance is near 9220, traders should sell short at 9230 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 9350 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

July Platinum Recommended Position Long at 394.

Early Support is near 391.9, failure there augurs for a slip to additional support near 383, buy at 383, risk a close under 380 for two days in a row on all positions.

Nearby Resistance is at 397.5, a close over augurs for a test of 403 to 407. A close over 407 indicates a rally towards 418.

Long Term Friendly

July Silver Recommended Position Long 2 at 624

On the Downside: Support is at 610, below that traders should go long for a bounce near 600.5 and stay tuned. Beneath that a slip to 585 should be considered a buying opportunity. On the Upside resistance is at 618.5, a close over 619 augurs for a test of the 625 to 633 region. A close over 635 indicates a rally to 656. Traders should or assume a long position (or add) if a close over 635 occurs.

Be Long

The Exciting Energies
June Crude Recommended Position Long at 1525

Early support is at 1609 and 1590. Below that traders can buy with ‘both hands ‘ at 1569, risk 30 cents. Beneath that, 1535 offers more support. Additional support

remains near the 1517 to 1496 region and it should hold.

Resistance is at 1615, a close over augurs for a test of critical resistance at 1656. A close over 1656 indicates a thrust towards 1696. Beyond that traders should sell at 1756 for a turn lower, risk a close over 1809 for two days in a row.

Friendly near term.

June Unleaded Gas

Nearby Support is at 5428 , below that traders should buy at 5345, risk 50 pts.

Failure there augurs for a slip towards 5245 where traders can buy for a bounce, risk a trade under 5115. Below that support is at 5050. If June Unleaded declines to 4857, consider it a buying opportunity and go long for the ‘Pull‘.

Early resistance is near 5452. Beyond that resistance is near 5580 and 5657. Beyond that traders should sell for a turn lower at 5855. Risk a close over 5885 for three days in a row.

June Heating Oil

Resistance near 4620 and 4645. A close over 4620 augurs for a test of 4715. A close over 4720 augurs for a test of 4890. Traders can go short at 4915, risk a close over 4930 for two days in a row. Support is at 4552 and 4480 Below that 4380 to 4370 offers support. Traders should go long at 4380, risk a close under 4300 for three days in a row.

Under that support should surface near the 4170 to 4160 region.

*Traders should go long using a 4620 stop close only.

The ‘Grande’ Grains

July Soybeans Recommended Position long 2 at 663 and 1 at 640

Early Support is at 638 , day traders can buy at 639, risk a close under 630 for two days in a row. Under that 619 offers support as does 608. Early resistance this week is 645 to 647. Beyond that 652 1/4 offers resistance. A close over 653 augurs for a test 661 1/20. Beyond that 667 offers resistance

Long Term Friendly

August Beans Recommended Position Long at 632 Hold

Spread Long August Short Nov at 24 cents over Hold

July Soybean Meal Recommended Position long 2 at 160.10.

Support is 157.60 under that 153.50 should contain the break.

Resistance is at 158.80 and 160.90 to 161.50.

A close over 158.60 is friendly.

July Soybean Oil

Early support is at 2857. Traders should buy at 2874 for a bounce higher. Risk a close under 2857 for two days in a row. Below that support is 2829 to 2820. Under that 2768 and 2749 should hold. Resistance is near 2898. A close over 2898 augurs for a test of 2928 to 2937, beyond that 2958 offers resistance, traders can sell at 2972 for a turn lower, Risk a close over 2990 for two days in a row

July Corn

Support is should appear near 250 3/4. Under that 249 and 246 1/4 offer support.

Resistance is near 2513/4 and 256 3/4. A close over 251 3/4 augurs for a test of 259

Beyond that sellers will appear near 265 and 271.

Traders should Go long at 249, risk a close under 2411/4.

July Wheat Recommended Position Long at 342 and 310

Resistance begins near 302 1/2 a close over augurs for a test of the 312 to 314 region. Beyond that resistance remains near 318. A close over 321 indicates a test of 332

Beyond that 344 offers resistance. Support should appear near 299, below that 293 and 289 should hold. Traders can Go Long for the ‘Pull’ at 289.

The Satisfying Softs

July Cotton

Support is 6465 and 6455. Traders can buy for a bounce at 6465, risk a close under 6415, below that support should appear near 6290 and 6190. Resistance is at 6570 to 6590. A close over 6575 augurs for a rally to 6770. Beyond that 6950 offers resistance. Beyond that Traders can sell short at 6950 for a turn lower , risk a close over 7005 for two days in row.

July Sugar Recommended Position Long at 852

Support is 832 and 823. Below that 814 should hold.

Resistance is near 848 and 858, a close over 858 augurs for a test of 872 and 899. A close over 907 would indicate a test of 932 to 941, then 959. Traders can sell short at 968 for a turn lower , risk a close over 972 for two days in a row.

A close Monday over 848 is friendly.

July ‘the Monster’ Coffee Recommended Position Long at 145.30 and 143.60

On the DownSide, Early support is at 126.80 and 124.45 , below that 123.80 to 123.20, under that 120.30 and 119.20 offer support. Buy at 119.30 and Hold.

On the Upside, Resistance is 127.40 and 129.10. A close over 129.10 augurs for a test of 131.00 Beyond that 134.60 offers resistance as does 150 and 153.60.

Trade Accordingly and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.

July Cocoa Recommended Position Short at 1701

Resistance is 1678 to 1680, a close over 1680 augurs for a test of 1689 to 1696. Beyond that resistance is at 1701 and 1732.

Early Support is 1665 , below that 1630 and 1627 offers support as does 1609 to 1615. Where hearty traders might be tempted to probe the long side. Buy at 1615, risk a close under 1609 for three days in a row.

The Lively Livestock
June Cattle

Support is near 6937, day traders can buy at 6937, risk a trade under 6902.

Below that Traders should buy ‘with both hands’ at 6867, risk a close under 6792 for two days in a row. More support should appear near 6717 and 6672.

Resistance is at 6947 /6957 , a close over 6957 augurs for a test of 7067, beyond that

7142 to 7187 offers resistance.

Traders should go long on a close over 6957.

Long Term Friendly, Buy Dips.

June Hogs

Support is at 6067 and 6052. Traders can buy at 6067, risk a close under 5957 for two days in a row. Below that 5885 offers support. A close under 5855 indicates a test of 5802, traders should Go long at 5802 , risk a close under 5712 for three days in a row.

Resistance is near 6210, a close over augurs for a test of 6257. if it holds.

Beyond that 6397 to 6432 offers resistance. Traders should sell at 6417 and hold.

Trade Accordingly.

July Pork Bellies

On the DownSide Early support is near 5670, buy there for a bounce and stay tuned.

Below that traders should buy at 5507 and hold. Below that 5307 and 5282 offer

support. Below that 4942 should hold.

On the Upside Resistance is near 5805 to 5855. An extended trade or close over 5805 augurs for a test of 5962 and 6082. Beyond that 6272 offers resistance.

Traders can Sell short at 6430 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 6597 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

June 30 Yr. Bonds Recommended Position Short at 119-30

Early Support is 120-10 and 119-31. A close under 120-08 is negative for a pull back towards 119-10, below that support should appear near the 118-03 region. Below that support is near 117-24 Where traders can buy for a bounce, risk 20 pts. An extended trade or close under 117-24 would indicate a slip to the 116-13 region with an outside chance of hitting 114-29. Resistance is at 120-23 and 121-08. A close over 121-12 augurs for a test of 122-08 ,sell at 122-08 for a turn lower, risk a close over 122-18 for two days in a row. More resistance should appear near 123-10, sell at 123-12 for a position and stay tuned for the stop. Beyond that 124-12 offers resistance.

June SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1092.00 and 120.50

On the DownSide, Support is at 123.15 and 1122.70 to 1121.60. Below that 1115.50 offers support . A close under 1121.60 indicates a slip to 1115.50 , a close under 1115.50 is negative for a pull back towards the 1105.40 region. A close under 1105.40 indicates a slip towards 1103.60 and 1101. A close under 1101 augurs for a slip to 1096.00 and 1089.50.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1130 and 1136, beyond that 1136.80 and 1137.60 offers resistance sell at 1136. risk a close over 1137.70 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance should appear near 1150.00. Strong Sellers should appear near 1164.00 to 1169.00 and should Cap a Rally Sell at 1164 and hold.

* A close under 1121.60 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'. should Go Short.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Initial support is 9140 below that 9058 is critical, a close under 9044 augurs for a pullback towards the 9013 region. A close under 9013 augurs for a test of 8964 to 8934. Below that 8856 offers support. If that fails a slip to 8798 or lower is likely.

Resistance is at 9156 beyond that 9187 and 9236 offer resistance beyond that 9331 to 9347 should bring out some sellers. Above that 9387 and 9429 offer resistance.

A ship in Harbor is Safe .. but that's not what ships are built for.