" Obsevation. experience , memory and mathmatics--These are what a successful trader must depend on. He Must not only observe accurately but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or on the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions maybe about man's unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities--that is try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enables the trader to act when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass. A man can have great mathmatical ability and unusual power of accurate obeservation and yet fail in speculation unless he also posses the experience and memory ".*

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Saturday August 8th 1997 09:00 Hrs EST

Sept. J-Yen
Good Resistance is near 8795 then 8834 beyond that 8934 offers resistance, beyond that 8965 should trade. A close over 8965 augurs for a trade to 9044 to 9060 . Traders should Sell at 9068 for a 2-day turn lower, risk a close over 9060. Beyond that 9266 is likely , then 9480 where Position traders should sell and risk a close over 9526 for three days in a row. On the Downside Nearby Support should be evident at 8734 then 8672 buy there for a bounce, risk a close under 8617 for three days in a row. A failure at 8617 would augur for a slip to 8564 where minor support rests, below that traders should buy at 8484 for a turn higher , risk a close under 8480. Beyond that augurs for a slip to 8406 where buyers should have orders resting for a long position . Risk a close under 8355 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

Sept. Swiss Franc
Support should appear at 6647 to 6636 , Below that traders can buy an early break at 6610 , risk a close under 6577 for three days in a row. Below that 6547 offers some support. Buy there for a bounce risk 30 pts. Early Resistance is at 6660 to 6673 , then 6697 a close over 6697 augurs for a trade to 6747 sell there for a quick turn risk a close over 6797 for three days in a row. Above that 6817 is likley then 6836.

Sept. British:
Early Support is at 157.94 then 156.90 below that 155.06 offers support ,buy there for a turn higher risk a close under 153.50 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 159.76 then 160.90 sell there for a turn , risk a close over 161.50 for three days in a row.

Sept. D-Mark
. Resistance should appear in the 5438 to 5488 above that 5553 offers resistance,Short term traders can sell short at 5553 for a turn, risk a close over 5577 initially.Stay tuned. Beyond that 5633 is likely. Support is near 5406 then 5388, buy there for a position , risk a close under 5338 for three days in a row. Stay tuned

FuturesCom liquidated longs in DMU and JYU on Friday..Reinstatment of those positions at levels not given in this letter is not out of the question ..let the mkt tell all...

December Gold Recommended Position long at 328.80 Long term traders should have buy orders waiting to assume longs for the 'pull' at 326.90 risk a close under 315.0 for three days in a row. More Support is at 322.7 .Resistance is near 335 then 342.7 A close over 335.5 augurs for a thrust to 345..Where Longs can sell calls or exit positions and await a dip to re-buy. A close over 345 augurs for a trade to 353 where traders can short the Yellow Metal for a turn only , risk a close over 356.

Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 370 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side... .

Sept. Copper Resistance is near 109.60 then 110.10, a close over 109.90 augurs for a test of 112.70 then 113.90.Sell there for a turn lower , risk a close over 114.10 for two days in a row. Support remains at 105.80 , buy there for a position risk a close under 103.60 for two days in a row. Below that 102.90 should hold. Buy at 101.65 for a bounce stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Platinum Support should appear near 427 where aggressive traders can begin to buy, more support rests near 417 where traders should buy for the 'pull' Risk a close under 401 for three days in a row. Agressive players should consider buying at 437 , risk a close under 423 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 446 then 462. Beyond that 478, close over 478 augurs for a trade to 500. Buy dips

Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 450 Support should appear near 432 where long term long term traders can buy for a position, risk a close under 425 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 451 then 468.5 sell there for a turn or to exit , stay tuned ...beyond that a test of 472 then 485 is likely, above that 503 should trade... If it holds..

Be long.

Sept. Crude Oil. Support is near 1915 then 1882 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce , risk a close under 1865 for three days ina row. Early support is near 1915 where traders can buy for a turn higher. stay tuned.. Resistance is near 1965 then 1987 above that 2002 to 2026 offers Resistance. Short term traders should sell at 2026 risk a close over 2042. More Resistance is near 2088 , a close over 2088 augurs for a thrust to 2170 and beyond.

Sept Unleaded Support is near 6065 where traders should buy using a stop close under 5905 for two days in a row. More Support is near 5845 where traders should have buy orders resting for a turn higher , risk 100 pts. Below that 5725 is likely to trade Resistance is near 6245 to 6270 , a close over augurs for a test of 6365 sell there for a quick turn, risk 50 pts.Beyond thas 6480 is where traders should sell for a Position risk a close over 6510 for two days in a row.

Sept Heating Oil. Traders should Buy Sept Heat on Monday open if under 5510. Support is near 5380 then 5270. Below that 5205 offers a buying region and where traders can buy for a turn higher and risk a close under 5190 for three days in a row. Near term Resistance is at 5470, a trade or close over augurs for a pop to 5650 then 5700 , be long if that occurs. Exit or Sell short at 5710 , risk a close over 5790 for three days in a row. More Resistance is near 5980. Sell at 5945 for a turn and risk a close over 6035 for two days in a row. Stay Tuned

Trade Accordingly

November Beans Resistance is near 644 then 649 to 652, sell there risk 7 cents, a close over 653 augurs for a pop to 668, sell there risk a close over 675 for two busy in a row. Support is at 635 1/2 a close or early trade under augurs for an extended break to 623 where support lies, below that traders should have buy orders at 617 for a bounce risk, 5 cents, if that fails go long near 608 risk a close under 601 where traders should buy again for the pll and pray for a n early frostl months. A close below that augurs for a trade to the 587 region , where value should come into the mkt and stop any decline...

A close under 635 is negative.

Dec Soybean Meal

Support is near 208 then 202.5 , below that buy at 196.5 for a bounce risk a the day close under 192.205 Resistance is near 212.5 then 216.6 sell at 217 risk a close over 222. for three days ina row.

Dec Soybean Oil Buy Dec Bean Oil at 2185 more good support is at 2143 Buy there , risk a close under 2126 for three days in a row on either. Below that 2088 should hold. Long term traders should buy at 2088 for the 'Pull' Resistance is near 2276 Beyond that 2339 should trade. Good selling will appear at 2390, sell short at 2411 risk a close over 2461 for three days in a row.

Sept Corn Early support is at 250 a trade under augurs for a slip to 240, Buy Sept Corn at 237 3/4 if able, risk a close under 234 for three days in a row. Additional support should start near 233 to 227. Resistance is near 255 then 259.More Selling should begin near 260 then 266. Traders should sell at 266, risk a close over 272 for two days in row.

December Wheat Resistance is near 388 sell there and risk a close over 392 for three days .in a row. More resistance is at 404 sell at 403 risk a close over 412 for three days in a row. Support is near 379 3/4 , buy there for a bounce risk 7 cents, below that 366 then 359 offer support , Buy Dec Wheat at 360 , risk a close under 346 for three days in a row.

A close under 379 is negative....

Trade Accordingly

October Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7380 Support is near 7345 then 7205 where traders can buy for a bounce, use a stop close under 7190 for 3 days in a row. Resistance should appear near 7515 then 7620 sell there for a turn risk a close over 7690 for two days in a row.

October Sugar Recommended position Long at 1149. Support is near 1136 then 1121 where traders can buy for a bounce, risk a close under 1107 for three days in a row.More Support is at 1092. Resistance is near 1140 then 1165, a close over 1165 augurs for a rally to 1171 then 1190 where traders can sell for a turn, risk a close over 1203 for three days in a row.

Stay Tuned

September the' Monster' Coffee Early support is near 203.65 buy there for a bounce,stay tuned. More Support is near 202.45 then 198.00. Buy at 183.00 for the 'pull', risk a close under 179.00 for three days in a row., If that fails a slip o 155 is likely. Resistance is near 210.60 then 212.50 and 215., a close over augurs for a rally to 222 then 239 where 'Hearty' traders can sell at 237.00, risk a close over 240 for three days in a row.

Have your' Steel Cup' Ready

November Orange Juice Recommended position Long at 7725. Buy Nov OJ at mkt open on Monday. Support is a t 7910 then 7850 , below that 7790 offers support as does 7690 where buyeers should go long for a bounce risk 100 pts. Resistance is near 8080 then 8120 to 8180 , a close over 8200 augurs for a rally to 8550 .Trade Accordingly.

Friendly

Sept Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1535 Support is near 1459 where traders should buy for a bounce risk a close under 1439 for two days in a row. More support is at 1439 1400. Resistance is near 1489 then 1500. A close over 1500 augurs for a trade to 1539 , a close over that augurs for a test 1576., sell at 1595 risk a close over 1615 for three days in a row.

Sept Lumber Support is near 348.30, buy there risk a close under 344 for three days in a row.More Support is 338. where traders can buy for a bounce risk a close under 330.Resistance is near 360.70 then 364.70, beyond that 370.60 offers resistance , sell there risk a close over 376, for three days in a row. Trade Accordingly.

Oct Cattle: Buy Oct at 6972 , risk a close under 6907 for three days in a row. More Support is at 6897 then 6870. Resisitance is near 7047 then 7080 , beyond that 7122 offers a selling oppurtunity, sell at 7122 risk a close over 7170 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

Buy Dips...

October Feeder Cattle Early Support remains at 8055. Belowe that 7980 to 7955 , buy at 7980 for a bounce risk 70 pts. More support lies at 7830 then 7730 where traders should buy orders resting for a turn higher..stay tuned. Resistance is near 8085 then 8155, a close over 8085 augurs for a test of 8190 then 8260.. Trade accordingly.

October Hogs Nearby Resistance is at 7317 sell there for a turn,risk 120 pts., a close over 7320 augurs for a pop to 7447 sell there for a position risk a close over 7602 for three days in a row. Support is at 7225 to 7217,Buy there for a bounce only risk a trade under 7176, a close under 7217 is negative , if this occurs sell short, looking for a break down to 7012 , buy at 7022 , risk a close under close under 6927 for three days in a row. If that fails a trade to 6830 is likely.. stay tuned..

August Bellies Support is near 8225, a trade that under indicates a decline to 8132. If August Bellies Close under 8122 a wash to 8005 then 7957 is likely. Below that a drive towards 7752 and 7587 is under way. Resistance is near 8387, sell there for a turn lower, risk a close over 8427 for three days in a row.One can sell at 8427 also for a turn lower, use the same risk. Failure early in the next week to close higher than 8427 indicates selling pressure on rallies and an impending break , trade accordingly.

Feb Bellies Support is at 7427 below that 7237 offers support , buy at risk a close under 7097 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7457 then 7680 sell there for a quick turn down , risk a close over 7847 for three days in a row. ..stay tuned for more...

-From the Frying pan into the Fire-

Sept Bonds Resistance is near 112-25, sell there for a quick turn lower, risk a trade close over 113-12, beyond that a test of 113-25 is likely, where resistance should be firm. Position traders should Sell short at 113-25 risk a close over 114-05 for three days in a row. Above that 114-15 offers heavy resistance. Nearby Support is 112-15, a close under augurs for a test of 111-25, if a close under 111-25 occurs then 111-07 is likely to trade and probably hold..However if 111-07 fails to hold , then 110-25 should trade and an eventual slip to 109-24 to 109-15 is more likley than not. The situation is a bit different than most other recent breaks. In 1996 , Bond collasped on Unemployment also, However there was a two sided mkt prior to the fall ..This break was preceded by what many Economists considered a Full Speed ahead 'Sign' by the Former Ole Copper Local Mr. Greenspan. So most players 'loaded the Boat' on Positive Recommendations from their Economists, remember the World invented Economists to make the Weatherman look Good.

Trade Accordingly

Sept SP500 On the Downside, Early and critical support is 934.70 , 931.60 and 929.70 Any sustained trade under 934.70 augurs for a pullback to the 929.70. Where a bounce should occur...However A close or extended trade under 929.65 augurs for a pullback to 923.60 where traders can probe the long side, for a 'quick' bounce higher..stay tuned Below that 921.80 is likley then ...Buy at 915.60 to 914.05 for a turn higher, stay tuned. A close Below 914,05 augurs for a test of of 906 00 with 904 below that..If the market falls to 897.40, go long for a good bounce. A close under 893.40 augurs for a pull back to the 882.00 region , failure there indicates a slip to 872 then 868.30 with 840.60 the place where traders should Buy and Hold. On the Upside, Resistance is at 936.65 then 938.80 sell there for a quick turn lower.stay tuned Above that 942.90 to 944.40 offers Res with good sellers at 945.65 sell there risk a close over 951.45 for two days in a row. Above that 957.60 offers resistance , beyond that 962.30 offers resistance, Sell at 962.50 for a turn lower. Stay Tuned More sellers should appear near 966.25 where hearty traders should sell short for a turn lower. Trade Accordingly.

A close under 929.60 is negative. if this happens sell short(within Reason )for a turn lower..stay tuned.

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk , Without Risk there is no Reward.

Happy Trading

Bill

*Excerpt from the book -Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

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