Wed Dec 28th 2005
7:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
The following estimates are in percentages of the year-earlier figures. Average and 'street' High and low projections are included in the table along with our estimates The All Important U.S. Department of Agriculture's quarterly hogs and pigs report will be for released at 3 p.m. Eastern time Today..
The numbers reflect a mild Herd expansion.
Average Range FuturesCom
All hogs and pigs on Dec 1 100.8 100.2-101.5 100.5
Kept for breeding 100.6 99.0-102.0 101.8
Kept for marketing 100.8 100.1-101.5 100.5
Traders should note that recent 'bad' news for Canadian hog producers that do not produce enough corn to cover all of their needs may result in more feeder pigs from Canada.. Hog producers in Canada are now looking at a $1.65 per bushel duty on feed corn from the US which should push total costs per hog...
Seasonally Speaking , Buying Summer Hogs (June and July) during January and Feb weakness normally proves profitable down the road..
However at current prices we feel that June and July hogs are pricey and would maintain a Flat to Bearish posture across the Hog mkt until we see lower prices , or more time passes....
Currently as 2005 ends we have no positions.. Preferring to Sell April on Rallies as our belief is that April hogs over 7000 is unsustainable..
We will look to buy June Hogs after the 2006 trading begins on a decline in preparation for summer rally while respecting our long term negative out for prices as we move through 2006 into 2007 and beyond.
Stay tuned for updates
-- A Ship in Harbor is Safe...But that is not what ships are built for --
Happy Trading !
Wed Dec 28th 2005
8:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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