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A ship in Harbor is Safe .. but that's not what ships are built for.
A FuturesCom Special Report
May 14, 2001
11:00 PM E.S.T
Expect the unexpected
Generally speaking July SoyBeans have been under pressure for sometime now ; the bears have been in control while the rally cries of bulls is a distant memory….To put it bluntly Beans have few friends, volume is down.. as are margins from years past.. …This year traders have priced in a perfect growing season along with a rather meek demand as the spring is ending and the summer growing season has yet to begin…
I still remember July of 1983.. Chicago had a 100 Year Rain on July 1st, at that time August .Beans were near $ 6.20 a bushel. a fairly weak price for the period…
As the unexpected came to pass the dog days of late July and August set in and by August 16 they traded to over 8.30 per bushel...! Of course the rally was aided by an extreme heat wave, which caused traders to scurry and buy beans.
.I don't think that will happen this year, however July soybeans are now 435
to 445 and aprox $ 12 cents over Nov.
Indicating a mildly excess supply, at a much lower price than in past years ..
Just as the Central banks around the world are trying to re-inflate economies
to lift stock market values…
A bit of weather premium added to Soybeans Futures at this point could cause an easy 30 to 60 cent 'pop' from current levels at any time.. One thing I do know and I have been in this Business over 22 years. I don't want to short Beans into this time frame
In my Opinion August Beans are cheap at $435 to 440 per Bushel,
It's a long time until the 'Dog Days' and. anything can happen...
Stay tuned for Updates and Flashes…
12:00 AM May 15th 2001
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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