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Courage in a Speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of  his mind


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Sunday, April 08, 2001

6:30 AM

                 The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Economic food for thought…

Friday’s employment reports showed an unexpected job loss.. which is a negative for the economy.


A  negative, which in my opinion the market already has discounted over recent months. 

Also in the report there was an hourly earnings increase ,which some economists tend believe is inflationary.. well most economists are like weatherman paid to be wrong !


If the people who are working are making more  it can offset the spending of those who are losing jobs.. with virtually no impact on inflation as a whole! 


In fact generally speaking commodity prices show little or no inflation from year ago levels with signs of deflation in some areas.. 


Call me crazy but what does this all tell me ?


The Fed , in my opionion has plenty of room to be accommodating and is prepared to ease rates to foster job creation and maintain productivity gains in order to stop the economic slippery slide into recession and will eventually attempt to achieve a growth target

of  2 1/2 % by years end..


History in the U.S.has shown us more often than not, stock markets tend to exhibit

bullish tendencies when this occurs. 


Combine this with a stable spending environment by those consumers who are working, may equal a likelihood that corporate earnings may get better and do it faster than most expect as the slide into economic oblivion abates. 


A dish most analysts expect not to be served…


But one that may very well be served cold….


Happy Trading

Bill !