Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis of Futures Markets
Serving Professional and Individual Futures Traders World Wide since 1988
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
A FuturesCom Special Report
It�s been 17 years since Gold had it�s heyday. GOLD BUGS are 'dead and buried.' The Swiss Banks that insisted upon buying some GOLD for all of their Managed Accounts, have now liquidated their positions and are probably short.
Whatever happened to the "Gnomes of Zurich?" In the past 16 years, GOLD has mostly been in a Bear Market. There have been a few rallies from time to time. The last Bullish Gold market occurred in 1993. If you're timing was perfect, you bought Gold under the $340 level and was able to Sell five months later above the $400 level. While the Bullion was rising over $60 in 1993, many Gold stocks rose well over 100%.
During 1994 & 1995, GOLD traded in a very narrow range of about $370 on the downside and $400 on the upside. Many traders kept saying that once GOLD broke above $400, it would FLY. Well, in early 1996, Gold finally closed above $400 and a multitude of small Speculators came out of the woodwork and bought the Yellow Metal..
WRONG AGAIN! If the Crowd was Right, everybody would be a Billionaire.
The Evening Gold hit $ 419 an ounce I began selling instead of sleeping.
By February of 1996, Gold was once again on its way DOWN.
Now the Crowd has abandoned Gold. The Swiss Banks are no longer buying for their subscribers. Mines have closed down due to low prices. The GOLD BUGS are in hiding. Central banks are Selling. The Producers have been Selling Forward their 1997 and even some of their 1998 supplies and beyond.
In other words, the World has forgotten the Metals that Glitters.
The WORLD is Bearish on Gold.
Is there any reason to Buy GOLD NOW? There sure is. The fact that Bulls in Gold are as scarce as a Snowball in July in Miami, is about the best reason I can give you. But, eventually, VALUE goes to VALUE and the Supply/Demand Fundamentals have been getting more & more Bullish for the past 5 years. Demand keeps picking-up, especially from the Far East. Each year, the rapidly multiplying Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Malaysians, Indians, et al are accumulating more Money and conversely, More GOLD.
Unless these Pacific Rim countries decide to stop cohabiting, Demand will continue to expand. Eventually, the Demand will overwhelm the Supplies and prices will have to work much Higher. If not for the central Bank selling of Gold in the last three years, I suspect that Gold would already be selling above the $500 level. The more selling at these low levels, the more dramatic the Rally once Gold and SILVER decide to make their upside Push that I strongly believe, will start sometime in the next 4-6 months.
Now everybody knows that INFLATION is Dead., what about when everybody knows something?
I see tremendous economic expansion in certain 3rd World countries. I see trouble brewing in Russia & South Africa, the two countries that produce just about ALL of the GOLD in the World.
China is Taking over Hong Kong in July, and �every body� knows China will try to get along.
Taiwan�s Central Bank just let the world know that Honk Kong�s Currency may not be convertible on the island after the Colony reverts back to China rule in July. It said Taiwan won�t honor Hong Kong money, now put out by private banks, if it is issued by China and printed with the name People� Republic of China.
As far as Currency or Gold goes who needs it just buy Stocks... right....
Best of all, my friends and Associates say I am crazy to predict a Bull market in GOLD.
They also said I was 'Nuts'to predict a Bull Market in Coffee in October of 1997,I am glad they did...
Most Economists are happy to stick with the Crowd and be Wrong than take a chance and be Right. They rationalize that it is better to be wrong and not stick your neck out than take a chance of being Right.
The World created economists to take the heat off the weatherman...
After- all, if you are wrong with the Crowd, you can always say----But so & so was also Wrong.
1998 could be a very bad year for Stocks, in my opinion. Joe Granville was bearish at 3800 and he just turned Bullish a last year. That's worries me. When the Bears throw in the Towel, can a Bear market be far behind.
If we see a sharp decline in the Stock Market in 1998, I wonder how these billion dollar �funds �will react.
I hold the view that one should have at least some Precious Metals representation in their Portfolio. Now I am Not saying that one should sell the Farm and buy gold or silver and platinum. I predict that Gold may rise at least $30/40 in 1998 and might even trade above the $430 level in my opinion.
SILVER may trade near the $ 575 and has a chance to rise above the $6.00 level, in my estimation.
PLATINUM may be the best performer in the Precious Metals arena in the next few years. We might see a rise to at least $450 next year This year's lows could be the Lows for quite some time.
Since very few traders and investors are thinking about investing in GOLD, I am more sure than ever that I may be right.
SANTAYANA once said that "Those who forget History are doomed to repeat it." I agree
Buying Options on futures are a limited risk strategy and can be purchased.
If you want real action------You can Buy Gold and Silver Futures, but they are not for everyone, only for those who have ice water in their veins.
Do you need more INFO or a strategy that combines both of the above?
If you are a 'paid' Subscriber or (I emphasize PAID), you should maintain a close liaison with my office. If you are Not a Subscriber, I suggest you become one and we will keep you posted on our money-making ideas in GOLD and other markets.
Above all one has to realize that all money making ideas have risk and are just ideas not a guarantee.
"The possession of GOLD has ruined fewer men than the lack of it". -----Thomas Bailey Aldridge"WIlliam Chippas