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Dec 14 1999
Special Pig Report
Over the last several days I conducted my own private survey of a variety of traders. When a person has been in the Futures business for almost 21 Years you run into all sorts.
The question was what did they think about the Pig Market in general?
The answer was a resounding Bearish Outlook by most, they are ready to' Throw out the Baby with the bath water so to speak' most funds and traders are SELLING into this break , that's what they do. Only a very small percentage of Traders and professionals are even thinking of buying.
It's a funny thing I did the same basic survey (which is conversations with these fellows) May of 1997 , at that time most traders were about to 'Sell the Wife and Farm' and BUY. They told me I was Crazy to short the Pig market back then...
Recently, I expressed my opinion that a trader should be looking to Buy the Summer Hogs June..in this price area, the resounding reply was Your NUTS --- Commodity Markets are a funny thing---
In my opinion One of most important things a trader needs to do is to See Clearly beyond the noise. So for a moment I would like everybody to look past the current devastation occurring in the Hog market. And think about this.
First, from a trading standpoint you are entering a period where a fellow is going need June hogs down the road . We already know Supply has dwindled
a bit Second, the economy is doing great right now, families are buying new homes or moving into existing homes at a near record pace. What I am trying to say is that someone is going to attend a ball game next summer and do a barbecue in their back Yard! Enough Said.
I recommend Traders assume a long Posture in June hogs for the Pull at this Current time, There are a number of Option strategies to consider. Buying Calls in June, sell calls against longs for protection. Hearty Traders could Sell Puts but that's a bit riskier.
Personally I like Buying June. at the current price region and Holding.
So my recommendation is that Bi-weekly Traders Buy June hogs at the current price and Hold , last in June is 6325
Premier Traders are already long from yesterday and should add 2 contracts using a 6350 stop close only...GTC
11:36 AM 12-14-1999
Copyright 1999 FuturesCom Investment Publications
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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