- Possible Pork Situation -
11:00 PM eastern time
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's all Important ‘ Quarterly Hog Report’ will be released Friday after the close.
We feel that the government will revise June’s data upward to reflect the large kills this summer and may in fact show that producer’s profitability may have slowed herd liquidation and that expansion has begun
Listed below are the average estimates and range as well as our estimates for the report ..
Avg Range FuturesCom
All hogs and pigs on Sept 1 100.5 98.5-102.0 102
Kept for breeding 99.4 98.3-101.0 100
Kept for marketing 100.6 98.5-102.0 102
With corn prices falling precipitously during the last quarter and hog prices remaining firm, and now surging,
our belief is that producers have begun expanding the herd to capture profits from the higher prices and that pork prices will set back to a lower level in the next few years..
Granted, expecting a bearish report may be a shot in the dark so to speak, however we advise traders to maintain current shorts (if able) into the report and stay tuned for additional selling chances during Friday’s session…
Today’s settlement for December was 7120 .. Feb sits at 6850 and June the only one to buy sits at 6960..
Long Spread Term Traders may want to buy June and Sell Feb looking for the spread to move from current 110 pts to 400 to 600 in early 2005
Stay tuned for updates and flashes
- A Ship in Harbor is Safe...But that is not what ships are built for –
Sept 24th , 2004
2:00 AM eastern time
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