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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--" Reminiscences of a Stock operator--


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4:00 PM


All The World is Watching Oil ….


We hear about it on the live news wires, the nightly news, the daily papers, we see it in the Fed Comments and last but not least on CNBC. All the World is watching Crude Oil

with fear and predicting higher prices … 


We all know the recent headline stories…API Bullish on Tuesday.. DOE a bit Bearish on Wed,  which resulted on a Wed close near Tuesdays close.. Finally International Fear occurred before the NY open on Early Thursday and  Traders bought early, foaming at the mouth..  Fearing the worst on Friday … according to CNBC at days’ end Thursday

 “ No one wanted to go home short “ … Sounds like the NASDAQ in March !!!


However Friday’s action in the Crude Pit  when all was said and done resulted in a rather Weak close…down over a buck in the front end Nov and minus 1.59 in the

Soon to be spot Dec.. With Nov , when the chips were all laid down on Friday barely closing above the Thursday day session LOW as the traders who were foaming at the mouth Thursday morning  began to choke on it before going home on Friday…


In addition  the Exchange decided to raise margins $2000.00 for members and $2,700 for customers … while some oil companies were vowing NOT to export 

Heating Oil this year to alleviate supply problems…


I clearly remember when Wheat was at $ 6.00 + and margins were raised just as the world was talking 7.50 to 8.00 wheat ..  a bit of a sell off ensued , rumors of a moratorium on exports spread through  the pits …and buy the time it was all over,  wheat fell out of bed dropping to near 4.50 rapidly and leaving all the NEWS followers wishing it was a dream !!!


Will the same happen to Crude ? I will not speculate to say. but I will say I do

not trust it from the long side !  and would not be surprised to see 2775 front end

before it is all over !!!    What would all this mean for the US  Stock Market…??


Envision the late  Walter Payton executing an end run …



5:19 PM


Happy Trading