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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk"
--Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--


Morning Comments
October 7th 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Monday Oct 6 1997
6:30 PM NYC time

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is at 8280 , below that 8268 then 8194 to 8223, buy at 8213 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8191 for three days in a row. Below that 8173, buy at 8173 for a bounce , risk 50 pts. Below that 8044 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.

Resistance is 8300 and 8314, above that 8340 and 8380 offers resistance. A close over 8368 augurs for a test of 8448 sell at 8448 , risk 20 pts or a close over 8451 initially..Beyond that 8491should trade and offer resistance, sell at 8491 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8560 to 8589 should trade then 8688 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8712 , risk a close over 8763 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec Swiss Franc
Early support should appear at 6948 traders can go long for a bounce, risk only 20 pts. however failure there indicates a decline to 6919, buy at 6919 for a bounce only, risk 30 pts below that 6845 offers god support , Buy at 6845, risk risk a close under 6797 for three days in a row. If 6845 fails a trade to 6755 is likely , buy at 6755 , risk a clsoe under 6740.

Early Resistance is at 6998 to 7007. Beyond that a trade to 7062 to 7074 is likely , sell at 7073 , risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7113 is likely, sell at 7113 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7223 to 7242 is likely and where good resistance remains sell at 7223 for a turn , stay tuned....

Trade Accordingly..

Dec. British: Recommended Position Long at 160.88
Support is at 160.90 more support is at 160.54 and 16000 , below that 159.60 then 159.20, buy there risk a trade under 157.60 If not long buy at 158.20 for for a turn higher risk a close under 157.26 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 161.50 and 161.90 . A close beyond 161.50 or 162 augurs for a test of 163.60 Traders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly..

Sept. D-Mark
Support is near 5689, buy at 5684 for a position , risk a close under 5680 for two days in a row. Support should also appear near 5640 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5577 .Below that 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.

Nearby Resistance is at 5729 and 5739 then 5774 above that sell at 5791 , risk a close over 5807 for three days in a row Beyond that a trade to 5855is likely. If The DMZ moves up to 5886 to 5902 sell at 5880 risk a close over 5914 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar Recommended Position Short at 7328

Support should appear near 7295 and 7262 , buy at 7256 , risk a close under 7242 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7328 to 7345, beyond that 7363 to 7370 offers resistance. Beyond that a trade is 7399 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold Recommended Position long at 334.4
Nearby support is at 333.2 then 332.6. Resistance is near 336 and 338.5 , with 342 above that .Traders should also consider buying Dec Gold at 341.90 stop basis the close where some resistance remains however if the " Yellow MetaL gets it gander up a rally to 350 is likely , a close over 353 augurs for a rally to 359 sell at 361 , risk a close over risk a close over 365 for three days in a row.

Buy dips..and hold.

Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9275 and 9175. Buy at 9270 for a turn higher risk a close under 9150 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9035 is likely...where value should take hold...

Resistance is at 9475 beyond that 9575 and 9670. More Reistance is near 9905 where traders can sell for a turn lower , risk close over 9940, beyond that 100.80 offer resistance , sell at 100.80 for a turn lower , risk a close over 100.90 for two days in a row. Beyond that 103.25 is likley...

Buy Dips a close over 9470 is friendly....if this occurs traders should consider going long

Trade Accordingly

January Platinum Recommended Position long at 424.5
Nearby support appear near 421.5, below that support should appear near 418 and 417 , then at 412 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce, risk a close under 406 for three days in a row...Resistance is near 427 and 431 , a close over 437 augurs for a 'pop' to 445 then 452...and beyond.
Trade Accordingly.

December Silver Recommended Position long at 525
Early support is 518.5 with more at 511, buy at 509 ,risk a close under 496 , below that 488 should hold....Resistance is near 526 then 540 and 555....Beyond that a test of 577 is not out of the question...

A close over 525 maintains good posture , over 537 is Bullish.

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Oil Recomended Position long at 2238
Early support is at 2165, for a bounce , risk 40 pts , more support is near 2140 where day traders should buy with both hands and risk a trade under 2120

Resistance should appear near 2188 to 2190 early, a close over 2190 augurs for a test of 2215 then 2229 beyond that 2247 offers resitance then 2291 to 2298 beyond that a trade to 2315 then 2366 is likely... beyond that 24.60 should trade...

Trade Accordingly.

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position Long at 6240

Early support is near 6025 , buy at 6020 risk a close under 5955 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 6105 then 6120 and 6220 , beyond that 6315 to 6320.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Heating Oil. Recommended Position Long at 6225
Support should appear near 6090 and 6025 , buy at 6015 , risk a close under 5850 .

Resistance is near 6125 then 6220, above that 6335.

The ‘Grande’ Grains

November Beans
Early Resistance is near 649 to 651. A close above 651 indicates a thrust to 662 and with an outside chance of 677 , traders should sell at 677 for a turn lower , risk a close over 684 for two days in a row.

Support is at 635 , buy sat 634 1/2 , risk a close under 624 for three days in a row.. More support should appear near 623..

Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position Long at 200
Good support should appear at 201.60 more support should appear near 198.30 , then 194.90...Buy at 194.90 risk a close under 193 for two days in a row.

Resistance is near 205.6 , a close over 205 indicates a ' pop', to the 210 /211 region.

Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2415 below that 2409 and 2376 offers mild support .. Traders can Buy at 2392 , risk a close under 2352 where support should appear.. a close under 2352 augurs for a slip to 2308.
Resistance is near 2450 then 2496 offers some resistance , as does 2503 to 2519 Sell at 2512 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.

Dec Corn
Early support is at 264 3/4 then 259 3/4. Buy Dec corn at 260 , risk a close under 254 for three days in a row. .

Resistance is near 269 , sell at 269 1/4 Risk a close over 275 for three days in a row. More Selling should begin near 281 then 284 3/4. Traders should sell at 280, 'till the cows come home' risk a close over 288 for three days in row.

December Wheat Recommended Position Long at 354 3/4
Nearby Support is at 351 More support should appear near 353 .Buy at 350 risk 7 cents. Resistance is near 363 , a close over 363 augurs for a thrust to 369

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7215
Support at 7090 should contain the break if not 7055 should hold......Resistance is near 7140 and 7205, a close over 7145 is friendly , a close over 7250 should cause short covering and a rally to 7340 to 7370 . March Sugar
Resistance is near 1215 , sell at 1210 , risk a close over 1213 for three days in a row. Additional Resistance should appear near 1232 sell at 1232 , risk a close over 1238 for two days in a row.

Support should appear near 1178 then 1175, buy at 1171 risk a close under 1164 for three days in a row. More Support is near 1135 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .

December Coffee
Early support is near 167.85 , buy there for a bounce , risk a trade under 165.20.. more support is at 164.20 then 162.90 below that 159.50 then 157.70 Buy Dec Coffee at 157. 70 risk a close under 156.90 for two days in a row. More Support should appear near 155.35 then 152.50 ...

Resistance is near 173.10 Sell at 173.10 risk a close over 174.20 for two days n a row . More resistance is near 180.80, sell at 180.80 , risk a close over 182.30 for two days in a row.

Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.

November Orange Juice
Early Resistance is near 7720 above that 7830, sell at 7830, risk a close over 8020 for two days in a row. Support should appear near 7320, buy at 7340 for as bounce , risk 125 pts. More Support should appear near 7170 then 7155, traders should buy at 7155 for turn higher, risk a close under 7070 for three days in a row.
December Cocoa
Support is near 1689 then 1647, traders should buy at 1644 for a turn, risk a close under 1640 for two days in a row. More support is at 1615 to 1609 and 1586, buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.

Resistance is near 1697, a close over or extended rally above 1697 indicates a rally to 1744 then 1760 , sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920 & 6677
Long Dec Short June at -165.

Support should appear at 6652 then 6597 and the 6517 region. holding over 6667 is friendly ...Resistance is near 6697 then 6742 a close over 6742 for more than a day or two is Buliish for a pop to 6802 then 6857.

A close under 6650 is mildly negative.

October Feeder Cattle Recommended Position Long at 7687
Resistance is near 7740, then 7797, a close over 7697 or 7745 is friendly rally to 7835 to 7852. with an eventual target of 7947 if a higher market occurs. Beyond that 8032 offers resitance , sell there , risk a close over 8047 for two days in a row...

Early Support is at 7697.Below that 7597 and 7580 buy there risk a close under 7560.

December Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6350
Early support is near 6270 and 6257 below that 6207 ...Resistance is 6307 then 6327 and 6362. above that 6407 .. a close over 6307 is friendly over 6332 is positive...

Stay tuned ...

Feb Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6387
Early Support is at 6237, Buy there for a bounce, , more support is at 6205 then 6165 Below that 6087 should hold.

Resistance is near 6377/6382.. a close over 6437 augurs for a trade to 6530 More reistance is at 6557

Trade Accordingly .

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Support is at 116-31 then 116-28 and 116-13 and 115-30 an extended trade under or close under 116-31 is negative, and indicates a decline towards the 1160-06 /115-31region ..Resistance is at 117-16 beyond that 117-27 to 117-30 offers resistance, sell Dec bonds at 117-24 , risk a close over 118-02 for two days in a row. Beyond that a trade to 118-12 is likely , sell at 118-16 and risk 10 pts. Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned ....

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Cash)

Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early and critical support is 977.70 /977.20 ...below that 973.70 and 972.10 Below that 970.60. A close under 977.60 indicates a slip towards the 973.70 then 970.60 region with 967.35 below that... under 967.35 , 964.10/ 963.60 and the 962.50 region should hold ..However failure there indicates a slip towards 961.90 and 961.10 where buyers should appear....if not ...and it gets sold a slip towards 958.15/ 957.85 is likely , below that support lies at 954.20 to 953.25 , buy at 954.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned... Below that 952.60 is likely to trade. Failure at 952.60 basis the close indicates indicates a slip to 946.90 to 944.50 where traders should buy for a good turn higher , risk a trade under 942.10.., Below that 934.70 then 929.50 and 927.40 offer support Buy at 929 risk 200 pts Failure to hold 927.40 is negative and should yeild a decline towards the 923 / 918.40 region with 915.60 Below that ... If a Sharp selloff does occur (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....

Resistance should appear near 982.10 then 982.90 and 983.70 offer resistance as does 984.90 ..Above that 987.10 /30 offers resistance , beyond that 992.10 is likely , with Resistance at 993.10 to 993.70 which should cap any rally for a bit...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 8081 , below that 8065 then 8044 with 8018.8 and 7991 to 7987.5 offering support. Resistance is firm near 8112 to 8119 and 8135.2 to 8141... , beyond that 8163 then 8178 should offer resitance as does 8194 to 8223..

A close under 8080 is negative.. a close over 8135 is friendly..

Happy Trading

Bill

10-06-1997 8:10 PM EST

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