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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk" --Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--

Morning Comments
October 14 th 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Tue Oct 14 1997
4:30 AM NYC time

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is 8300-8310 below that 8223 , buy at 8213 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8191 for three days in a row. Below that 8173, buy at 8173 for a bounce , risk 50 pts. Below that 8044 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.

Resistance is 8356 then 8391 beyond that 8448 sell at 8448 , risk 20 pts or a close over 8451 initially..Beyond that 8491should trade and offer resistance, sell at 8491 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8560 to 8589 should trade then 8688 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8712 , risk a close over 8763 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long at 6928
Early support should appear at 6865 then 6845, buy at 6845, risk a close under 6797 for three days in a row. If 6845 fails a trade to 6755 is likely , buy at 6755 , risk a clsoe under 6740.

Early Resistance is at 6902 then 6915 , a close over augurs for a thrust to 6961, above that 6998 to 7007. Beyond that a trade to 7062 to 7074 is likely , sell at 7073 , risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7113 is likely, sell at 7113 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7223 to 7242 is likely and where good resistance remains sell at 7223 for a turn , stay tuned....

Trade Accordingly..

Dec. British:
Support is at 161.50 then 160.90 , below that 159.60 then 159.20, buy there risk a trade under 157.60 If not long buy at 158.20 for for a turn higher risk a close under 157.26 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 162.20 then 163.60 Traders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly..

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position Short at 5791
Support is near 5723 and 5706 , buy at 5684 for a position , risk a close under 5680 for two days in a row. Support should also appear near 5640 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5577 .Below that 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.

Nearby Resistance is at 5756 above that 5790 then 5806 , Beyond that a trade to 5855 is likely. If The DMZ moves up to 5886 to 5902 sell at 5880 risk a close over 5914 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar

Support should appear near 7262 , buy at 7256 , risk a close under 7242 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7312 then7327 and 7345, beyond that 7363 to 7370 offers resistance. Beyond that a trade is 7399 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold Recommended Position long at 334.4
Nearby support is at 326 then 319 . Resistance is near 331 and 336.5 , with 338 above that .Traders should also consider buying Dec Gold at 341.90 stop basis the close where some resistance remains however if the " Yellow MetaL gets it gander up a rally to 350 is likely , a close over 353 augurs for a rally to 359 sell at 361 , risk a close over risk a close over 365 for three days in a row.

Buy dips..and hold.

Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9315 then 9285 Buy at 9270 for a turn higher risk a close under 9150 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9115 is likely...where value should take hold...

Resistance is at 9505 and 9710. More Resistance is near 9905 where traders can sell for a turn lower , risk close over 9940, beyond that 100.80 offer resistance , sell at 100.80 for a turn lower , risk a close over 100.90 for two days in a row. Beyond that 103.25 is likley...

Trade Accordingly

January Platinum
Support is near 434.5, below that support should appear near 430 , then 423 , below that 412 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce, risk a close under 406 for three days in a row...Resistance is near 440 and 443....beyond that 450

Buy Dips...
Trade Accordingly.

December Silver Recommended Position long at 525 & 511
Early support is 509 and 507 . ....Resistance is near 517 and 531.

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Oil Recomended Position long at 2238
Early support is at 2123/2120 more support is near 2098

Resistance should raise it's ugly head at 2149, however a close over 2151 augurs for a rally to 2170 ...
Still Bullish Buy Dips ...

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position Long at 6240 & 6025..Risk a close under 5955 for three days in a row on all positions..

Early support is near 5955 , below that 5855. Resistance is near 6055 and 6155 , beyond that, 6260 and 6320.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Heating Oil. Recommended Position Long at 6225 & 6015 risk a close under 5850 for two days in a row.
Support should appear near 5970 and 5865..Resistance is near 6035 above that 6170 then 6265.

The ‘Grande’ Grains

November Beans Recommended Position Short at 688
Support is at 717 and 708.. a close under 717 augurs for a pull back to the 700 region... Early Resistance is near 722.5 and 728 with more at 733

A close under 717 is negative if that occurs a dip to 677 is not out of the question.. be patient....

Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position Short at 218
Support should appear at 234 below that 229 , a close under 234 augurs for a pull back to 221. Resistance is near 237 then 241

Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2476 below that 2460 and 2432 offers mild support .. Traders can Buy at 2392 , risk a close under 2352 where support should appear..
Resistance is near 2511 to 2513 Sell at 2512 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.

Dec Corn Recommended Position Short at 269 1/4 and 280
Early support is at 290 then 286 .. a close under 290 3/4 augurs for a pull back to 282.

Resistance is near 291.5 then 292 and 296

December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 370 More support should appear near 365 Resistance is near 376, sell at 375 and hold ...

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7215
Support at 7135 and 7110 Resistance is near 7165 7185, a close over 7190 should cause short covering and a rally to 7315.

March Sugar
Resistance is near 1192 then 1210, sell at 1210 , risk a close over 1213 for three days in a row. Additional Resistance should appear near 1222 and 1232 sell at 1232 , risk a close over 1238 for two days in a row.

Support should appear near 1177, buy at 1171 risk a close under 1164 for three days in a row. More Support is near 1152 then 1142 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .

December Coffee
Early support is near 165.45 then 163.35 below that 161.90 and 161.05. Buy Dec Coffee at 157. 70 risk a close under 156.90 for two days in a row. More Support should appear near 155.35 then 152.50 ...

Resistance is near at 168.50...above that resistance is near 170.35 then firm rsistance should appear near 171.25 beyond that 172.35 . Traders should sell at 173.10, risk a close over 174.20 for two days n a row More resistance is near 180.80, sell at 180.80 , risk a close over 182.30 for two days in a row.

Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.

December Cocoa
Support is near 1664 then 1654 , traders should buy at 1644 for a turn, risk a close under 1640 for two days in a row. More support is at 1614 to 1609 and 1586, buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.

Resistance is near 1681 then 1714 and 1754/1764 sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920 & 6677 Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6685 and the 6612 region, Resistance is near 6757 then 6765, a close over 6767 augurs for a trade to 6832..

October Feeder Cattle
Resistance is near 7765 beyond that 7792 and 7865 Early Support is at 7667 Below that 7635

December Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6350
Early support is near 6187 and 6127..Resistance is 6227and 6282 a close over 6232 indicates a trade to 6317. above that 6407.

Stay tuned ...

Feb Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6387
Early Support is at 6102, below that 6085 and 6047 where it should hold.

Resistance is near 6250 and 6272 a close over 6252 augurs for a trade to 6342 then 6520.

Trade Accordingly.

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Support is at 115-05 below that 114-24 and 114-04 , buy and 114-04 and risk 10 pts Below that 113-13 offers supports.Resistance is at 115-25 with 116-02 / 116-05 above that .more resistance is near 116-20

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Cash)

Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early support is 976.10 then 973.70 and 972.10 Below that 970.90. A close under 973.70 indicates a possible slip towards 970.60 region with 969.40 and 967.35 below that... A close under under 967.35 augurs for a trade to 964.10/ 963.60 and the 962.50 region Which should hold However failure there indicates a slip towards 958.15/ 957.85 , below that support lies at 954.20 to 953.25 , buy at 954.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned... Below that 952.60 is likely to trade. Failure at 952.60 basis the close indicates indicates a slip to 946.90 to 944.50 where traders should buy for a good turn higher , risk a trade under 942.10.., Below that 934.70 then 929.50 and 927.40 offer support Buy at 929 risk 200 pts Failure to hold 927.40 is negative and should yeild a decline towards the 923 / 918.40 region with 915.60 Below that ... If a Sharp selloff does occur (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....

Resistance should appear near 977.90 and 978.35 .. sell at 978.35 for a quick turn risk 220 pts , more resistance is near 980.30 then 982.10 to 983.70 and 985.35. Beyond that 987.40 then 989.90. Good sellers should appear near 991.50 to 992.10 and 993.70

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 8044 with 8029 and 8016 to 8003 as critical , a close under 8029 augurs for a slip to 7991 and 7987.5 then 7954 where support remains.... Resistance is firm near 8088 with 8119 to 8135 and 8163 above that.

Happy Trading

Bill


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