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Morning Comments October 29th 1997
" Obsevation. experience , memory and mathmatics--These are what a successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe accurately but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or on the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions maybe about man's unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities--that is try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enables the trader to act when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass. A man can have great mathmatical ability and unusual power of accurate obeservation and yet fail in speculation unless he also posses the experience and memory ". --Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Tuesday Oct 28 1997..for Wed
6:00 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is at 8229 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts. Below that 8213 then 9194 offer support.
Resistance is 8391... if the Yen soars a trade to 8566 is likely sell at 8562 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8589 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8668 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8668 , risk a close over 8683 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Friendly to the Yen over longer term...

Dec Swiss Franc Recommended Trade Short at 7038

Early support should appear at 7023 then 7002 below that 6952 and 6923 offers support ..
Resistance is 7052 and 7102 .. above that 7123 should stop any rally.

Dec. British: Recommended Position Short at 164.20
Support is at 165.50 .More Support is at 164.20 Resistance is near 167.50 then 168.04 and 168.90.

Trade accordingly..

Sept. D-Mark
Nearby Resistance is at 5759 and 5793 Support is 5743 and 5729 below that 5716 then 5693..

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar Recommended Position Long at 7171

Support should appear near 7099 and 7074 Resistance is near 7149 a close over 7170 indicates a rally to 7212... Resistance is near 7242 to 7262, beyond that 7328 to 7342 offers resistance. Sell at 7342 risk 20 pts Beyond that a trade is 7385 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold
Nearby support is at 314 abd 310.5 Resistance is 320 and 322 a close over 322 is friendly..for a rally to 327.. Conservative Traders Should Buy April 340 & 350 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper Recommended Position , long at 9540 and 9450. Hold
Nearby support is at 8945 and 8790. Resistance is at 9185 Above that 9380 offer resistance

January Platinum Recommended Position Long at 414.
Nearby support is near 397.5 Resistance is near 408 a close over 408 augurs for a 'pop' to 417 then 422...and beyond.
Buy dips and Trade Accordingly.

December Silver Recommended Position Long at 492.
Early support is 472 ,buy at 472 risk a close under 464 for three days in a row. , below that 451 should hold....Resistance is near 487 ad 491 a close over 496 indicates a trade to 507 then 527..

Trade Accordingly

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Recommended Position Long at 2238
Early support is at 2022 then 1999 Traders should buy at 1999 , risk a close under 1953 for two days in a row.Resistance should appear near 2047 and 2072 beyond that a trade to 2092 is likely.. A close over 2125 is Bullish....

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position long at 6240

Early support is near 5790 , buy there for a bounce only , risk a trade under 5720, below that 5680 offers support , traders should consider buying near 5680 if able...risk a close under 5640 Resistance is near 5875 and 5930 beyond that 6030 and 6105

Dec Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 5725 and 5670 , buy at 5655 , risk a close under 5620.Resistance is near 5750 and 5840 , beyond that 5925 then 5980 with a target above at 6060. A close over 5750 is friendly.

Trade Accordingly...


The ‘Grande’ Grains

November Beans
Early Resistance is near 696 and 702 beyond that 712 to 716 offers resistance .. day traders can sell for a quick turn at 716 , risk 5 cents
Support is at 688 and 684 day traders can buy at 684 , risk 5 cents. Below that 673 and 669 1/2 offer support buy at 669 3/4, for a bounce risk a trade under 664

Dec Soybean Meal
Good support should appear at 218 more support should appear near 213 Resistance is near 228 and 233

Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2537 below that 2512 offers support .
Resistance is near 2569 and 2581 with 2633 above that

Dec Corn
Early support is at 284 3/4 and 280 Resistance is near 290 and 296

December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 358 below that 354 3/4 , buy at 354 3/4 , risk a close under 344 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 365 and 368 above that 372 offers resistance

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton
Resistance is near 7315, sell at 7340 , risk a close over 7430 for three days in a row...
Support is at 7160 and 7115

March Sugar
Resistance is near 1189 and 1205.. sell at 1203 , risk a close over 1206 for three days in a row. Support is near 1169 then 1149.. More Support is near 1144 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .

December Coffee
Early support is near 149.95 and 148.20, buy at 149.90 for a bounce , risk a trade under 145.90 below that 143.90 then 139.90 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk a close under 133.30 for two days in a row.....

Resistance is near 152.90 and 153.60 a close over 152.90 augurs for a trade to 157.10...beyond that 158.50 should trade ..More Resistance is near 160.40 with 164.90 above that..sell at 164.90, risk a close over 165.50 for two days in a row....

Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.

December Cocoa
Support is near1575 and 1551. Resistance is near 1601 and 1622 a close over or extended rally above 1601 indicates a rally to 1622 and 1651

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6677 and 6920
Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6722 and 6682.Resistance is near 6797 and 6832.

Be long...

December Hogs
Early support is near 6140 and 6077 Resistance is 6172 and 6217 then 6272

Feb Bellies

Early Resistance is at 6337 then 6397 beyond that 6487 and 6507...Support is near 6265 and 6192 below that 6177 which should hold for now....
Trade Accordingly .

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Early support is at 116-20 and 116-03 ..A close under 116-03 indicates a slip towards 115-24 and 115-14..Resistance is at 117-03 and 117-24 with 118-03 above that.

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures

Dec SP500
On the Downside, Early and critical support is and should yield a decline towards the 923.60 and 915.60 Below that 914.80 should hold ..but probable won't below that 910.05 then 906 to 904.40 is likely..under that 900.40 to 899.90 should stop the break for a bit. ..Below that 894.90 and 893.40 to 893.10 should hold ..if not .. 890.25 to should trade.Under that 887.10 to 885.60 offers support then 877.70 to 876.20 should hold .

Resistance should appear near 931.90 and 934.70 ..beyond that 935.50 and 938.80 with 942.90 and 944.50 above that , Firm Resistance is near 947.90 with 948.55 above that ... More resistance should appear near 952.60 then 953.40 and 954.20 beyond that 957.60 Beyond that 962.50 and 964.10 offer resistance ..Above that sell at 968.35 for a turn lower...

Trade Accordingly.

I am re-working the Dow technicals look for it to return shortly...

Happy Trading

Bill

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