FuturesCom Investment Publications
Morning Comments, November 18,1998
Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis of Futures Markets
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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected --I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--" Reminiscences of a Stock operator.

 

Tuesday, November 17, 1998

6:00 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec. Japanese-Yen recommended position long at 8348

Early Support is 8257 and 8251. Below that buyers should appear near 8223 to 8195

Day traders can buy at 8257 , risk 60 pts.

Resistance is at 8300 and 8314 then 8348 to 8357. Beyond that resistance is at 8391 to 8406 and 8484 to 8499 Traders should sell short at 8484 for a turn lower, risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 8560 to 8589, traders should sell short at 8572, initially plan on risking risk a close over 8611.

Dec. D-Mark Recommended position long at 5998 and 6002

Resistance is at 6012 and 6023 then 6035. A close over 6012 is friendly and indicates a test of 6072 then 6101 to 6113. Traders should sell short at 6113 for a quick turn lower. Risk a close over 6165. Beyond that a test of 6190 to 6201 is likely. Day traders can sell short at 6190 for a turn lower, risk 30 pts. Support is at 5975, day traders can buy at 5975, risk 40 pts. Under that support is at 5957 to 5945 then 5925 / 5912.

Dec. Swiss recommended position long at 7342 and 7303

Resistance is at 7312 then 7328 / 7334 to 7242 region. Beyond that resistance is at 7384 and 7412 to 7428. Traders can sell short at 7414, risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Support is at 7284 and 7255 to 7242. Day traders can Buy at 7284, risk 60 pts..As support under that is 7255 and 7234 to 7212...

Trade Accordingly

Dec. British Pound

Support is at 1.6720 and 1.6684 then 1.6646 and 1.6550 Traders should buy at 1.6550 and hold for higher prices, risking a close under 1.6420 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 1.6746 and 1.6780 then 1.6890. A close over 1.6890 augurs for a test of 1.6960, traders can short at 1.6960, risk a close over 1.7110 for two days in a row. Beyond that 1.7310 to 1.7380 should cap a rally for now. Traders can sell short at 1.7310 risk a close over 1.7400 for two days in a row.

Dec. Canadian Dollar

Nearby Support is at 6448 and 6423. Traders can buy at 6418 for a bounce. Risk a close under 6402 for three days in a row.


Resistance is at 6473 then 6509 and 6517. A close over 6517 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6577 to 6591. A close over 6591 augurs for a test of 6623 and 6687 beyond that a thrust to 6741 to 6755 is likely.

Traders should go long if a close over 6517 occurs.

Trade accordingly.

 

Precious Metals

Dec. Gold Recommended position Long at 294.80

Support is at 294.20 and the 293.20 to 292.80 region. A close under 292.80 augurs for a test of 290.60. Traders can Buy at 290.40 and risk a close under 287.40 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 297.70 and 299.00. A close over 297.70 is friendly and would indicate a test of 301.80 and 303.60 if it holds.

**Traders should go long/ add if a close over 297.70 occurs.

Dec. Copper: Recommended position long at 7115

Nearby Support is at 7145 and 7090. Below that support is at 7020.

Resistance is at 7225 to 7240.

Trade accordingly..

Jan. Platinum recommended position long at 352.0

Support is at 346.50 and 344.5 where it should hold basis the close. Traders can go long at 344.5, risk a close under 337 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 351.00 and 359.5. Beyond that resistance is near 373.

Traders can go short for a turn at 373, risk a close over 380.6 for two days in a row.

Dec. Silver recommended position long at 502.5 and 513.5

On the DownSide: Support is at 490 and 487.5 to 485.5 Traders can go long at 487.5 risk a close under 478 for three days in a row. Below that good buyers should appear at 469.
On the Upside. Nearby Resistance is at 495 and 511, a close over 511 is friendly for an eventual test of 527 region..

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

Jan Crude recommended position long at 1357 and 1319

Nearby Support is at 1268 and 1256 then 1235

Resistance is at 1300 and 1310

Trade Accordingly

Jan Unleaded Gas recommended position long at 4060

Support is at 3855 to 3815. Traders can buy at 3815 and hold for higher prices.

Early Resistance is at 3966, a close over augurs for a test of 4111.

Jan Heating Oil recommended position long at 3865 and 3685

Support is at 3610 to 3580 and 3503

Early Resistance is at 3700 and 3745. A close over 3700 augurs for a test of 3855.

 

The Grande Grains

January Soybeans recommended position long at 582

Support is at 580 1/2 below that good buyer should appear at 578 1/2 and 574.

Traders can buy at 573 1/2, for a good bounce, risk a close under good support at 568 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 583 1/4. A close over 583 1/2 augurs for a test of the 595 to 596 region. Beyond that a test of 610 is likely.

Dec. Soybean Meal recommended position long at 146.5

Support is at 147.7 then 143.2 and 141.5 Resistance is at 149.1, a close over 149 is friendly and augurs for a test of 158 beyond that good sellers should appear at 161. Traders can go short at 161, risk a close over 167 for three days in a row.

* Traders should go long /add if a close over 149 occurs..

Dec. Soybean Oil Recommended position long at 2469

Support is at 2469 and 2461 then 2442. Below that Support should appear near the 2419 to 2411 region.

Resistance is at 2472 and 2492. The close over 2469 augurs for a test of 2511 to 2519. Beyond that a test of 2536 is likely.

Dec. Corn. Recommended position long at 219 3/4

Support is at 218 below that support is at 215 1/2. Below that support is at 213 1/2.

Resistance is at 220 3/4 and 223 3/4 . A close over 225 1/2 indicates at test of the 230 region.

Dec. Wheat recommended position long at 287 1/4

Support is at 2871/4 Below that support is at 283 1/4 and 281 where a break should contain it self.

Nearby Resistance is at 289 and 293 1/4 . A close over 293 1/4 augurs for a test of 297 1/2 then the 299 to 301 region.

Try buy a dip this week *Traders should go long if a close over 293 1/4 occurs.

The Satisfying Softs
March Cotton recommended position long at 6510

Support is at 6285 and 6170

Resistance is 6368 and 6435.

March. Sugar

Support is at 839 and 826 to 819. Traders can buy at 823, risk a close under 907 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 852 and 859. Beyond that sellers should appear near 867 then 873 and 882.

March Coffee:

On the downside, Early support is at 111.70 , day traders can buy at 111.70 put your own risk on it... Below that support is at 110.10 and 109.60 then 109.20 and 107.90.

On the Upside, Early Resistance is at 112.65 and 113.00 to 113.60. A close over 113.60 augurs for a test of the 116.40 to 116.90 region. Beyond that a push to the 119.20 / 120.30 region is likely.

March Cocoa

Support is at 1511 to 1509 and 1491 to 1484. Traders can Buy at 1511, risk a close under 1484 for three days in a row. Under that support should appear near the 1467 to the 1453 region. Where it should Hold.

Resistance is at 1518 and 1529 to 1535. A close over 1535 augurs for a test of 1561

**Traders should go long if a close over 1535 occurs.

 

The Lively Livestock

Dec. Cattle Recommended position long at 6417 and 6297

Support is at 6257 then 6217 and 6157. Day traders can buy at 6217, risk 80 pts.

Resistance is at 6302 and 6317 Beyond that resistance should appear at A close over 6302 is friendly and indicates an eventual test of 6447.

Dec. Hogs recommended position long at 3102

Support is at 3062 and 3037. Below that 2990 to 2972 should hold.

Resistance is at 3097 and 3162 to 3177 A close over 3177 augurs for a test of 3262 and eventually 3482

Recommended Spread Long 5 Feb. Hogs, Short 5 April
-135 Feb. under April.

Feb. hogs Recommended position long 4 at 4302 avg.

Support is at 3862 and 3857 then 3807, under that 3790 and 3747 should hold.

Resistance is at 3917 and 3927 then 3952. A close over 3917 is friendly and augurs for a test of for a test of 4047 and 4097

April Hogs

Resistance is at 4337 and 4397 then 4437, day traders can short an early rally at 4427 risk 50 pts. And stay tuned ....However a close over 4402 is friendly and augurs for a test of 4522. Traders should go long if a close over 4402 occurs..

Support is at 4282, under that buyers should appear near 4237 then 4197 .

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

Feb. Bellies recommended position long 4 at 4845 and 4 at 4435

Support is at 4432 below that support is at 4367 and 4347 then 4282 and 4202. Day traders should Buy at 4432 put your own risk on,

Resistance is at 4502 and 4557 then 4582. A close over 4522 is friendly and augurs for an eventual rally to 4727. A close over 4727 is friendly and indicates another test of 4802 and 4857. A close over 4465 is mildly friendly * Traders should go long / add if a close over 4522 occurs,

Patience...-Stay tuned for Updates in the Meat Complex.-

 

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Dec. Bonds recommended position long at 127-10

On The DownSide, is at 126-22 and 126-11 then 125-26 Below that 125-11 should hold.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 127-11 and 127-26. Beyond that resistance is at 128-11

Dec. SP500 recommended position short at 1137.20

Traders should remove stops for today based on the closing price in Dec. SP500

On the DownSide, Support is at 1137.50 to 1136 then 1133.50 and 1132.40 under that a trade to 1131.10 and 1130 is likely.

A close under 1137.50 is negative and augurs for a test of 1115.50 and eventually 1105.10, below that support should hold at 1101.20, traders can buy at 1101.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned for the stop.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1147.10 to 1148.40 and 1150. Day traders can sell at 1147.10, put your own risk on it. Beyond that resistance is at 1155.80 and 1165 to 1169. Traders should sell short at 1168.50 and hold for lower prices... Beyond that 1182 to 1203 should bring out sellers...traders with Ice Water running through their veins should go short at 1194.60 and Hold..Stay Tuned for SP500 Updates and Flashes .

** A close under 1137.4 is negative, traders should sell short if a close under 1137.40 occurs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8964 and 8952.40 under that support is at 8934. A slip under 8934 augurs for a test of the 8871 to 8854 region, below that 8833 needs to hold basis the close for upward momentum to continue. A close under 8833 is negative and indicates a slip towards the 8777 to 8762 region.

Resistance should first appear at 9044 to 9060 and 9083, a close over 9083 augurs for a test of 9140 to 9156 where good sellers should appear.. Beyond that 9254 and 9316 to 93347 should cap a rally..

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.

Happy Trading

Bill


Tues.
 Nov. 17 1998

7:45 PM

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