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"A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory. "

-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-

 

 

Morning Comments

June 22, 1998

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

 

 

Sat, June 20, 1998

03:30 PM e.s.t.

 

 

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended position short at 7330

Support is 7427 and 7414 then 7355 and 7342 to 7328

Nearby Resistance is at 7527, day traders should sell there for a turn lower, risk 30 pts. Above that 7565 to 7587 should cap a rally for today barring any intervention

 

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6695 and 6755

Nearby support is at 6706 and 6692 to 6687. A slip under 6687 augurs for a test of 6673. Resistance is strong near 6756 beyond that the 6799 to 6809 region offers good resistance. However a close over 6761 indicates a test of 6836. Beyond that resistance is near 6890. Traders can exit longs/ go short at 6890. Initially Risk a close over 6919 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

Sept. British Pound: Recommended position short at 1.6550

Support is at 1.6648 and 1.6630 under that a test of 1.6550 is likely if it fails a trade of 16420 should occur. Resistance is at 1.6732 then 1.6842.

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long 5593

Support is at 5608 and 5577 to 5558 to 5545 with good support at under that at 5490 to 5480 which should contain a break. If not a slip to 5461 is likely. Resistance is at 5641 to 5651 region. Beyond that at test of 5688 is likely, Traders should exit and go short at 5688 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row.

Sept. Canadian Dollar Recommended Position long at 6836 and 6856

Support is at 6795 and 6788. Resistance is at 6829 a trade over 6830 indicates a test of 6836 to 6845. A close over 6845 augurs for a thrust towards 6906 to 6914 where traders should sell at 6906, risk a close over 6922 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly.

Precious Metals

August Gold Recommended Position Long at 290

Nearby Support is at 299.1 and 296.9 to 294. Resistance is at 303.60 and 304.70 however if august gold maintains a close over 300 a test of 308.20 to 309.10 is

Likely to occur..

July Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7780

Support is at 7515 and 7430 below that 7360 to 7300 should hold. Resistance is at 7715 to 7730. However a penetration of the 7735 region would most likely force a trade to 7915 if it holds.

Trade Accordingly,

July Platinum Recommended Position Long at 349.

Early Support is near 360.5 and 356.5. Below that 351 to 346 should hold.

Resistance is at 363.5 and 366. Beyond that 376.5 offers good resistance. Traders should Go Short at 377, risk a Close over 383 for two days in a row.

Long Term Friendly

July Silver

On the Downside: Support is at 529 and 512 to 509.5, day traders should buy at 512 and risk 5 cents below that Traders can buy at 493 and hold. On the Upside early resistance is at 544.5 and 549.5 A close over 549.5 augurs for a test of 558.

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

August Crude Recommended Position Long at 1304 and 1407

August Crude has support at 1315 to 1313 and 1304. Hearty traders can buy at 1313 and risk 20 pts. Resistance is at 1329 to 1338 and 1363 to 1365. Above that a thrust to 1377 and 1415 is likely. Sloppy but if it holds a good rally is likely.

A close over 1329 is friendly.

August Unleaded Gas Recommended Position Long at 4717

Support is at 4650 to 4638 and 4490. Resistance is at 4695, an extended trade over augurs for a pop to 4775 and 4840 to 4880. A close over 4927 is bullish for a test of the 5085 /5125 region.

*Traders should go long on a close over 4927

August Heating Oil

Resistance at 3910 Above that resistance should appear at 3935 and 3990 beyond that a test of 4170 is likely if it holds. On the Downside Support is at 3795. Below that Traders should Buy at 3745 and hold. Below that 3645 should contain the break.

* Traders should go long using a 3957 Buy stop.

The Grande Grains

July Soybeans

Well, now that beans have left a few shorts in the dust so to speak Monday should be interesting.. for today Support is at 647.5 to 646.5 and 641.5 to 639.50.. Day traders should buy at 643 and risk 7 cents. Resistance is at 653.5 to 655, above that 660 and 667 to 669.5 should trade.

August Beans Recommended Position Long at 601 (2) Hold

Spread Long August Short Nov. at 24 cents over Hold

August Soybean Meal

Support is 168.9 and 166. Day traders can buy at 166, risk a trade under 164.

Resistance is at 174 and 177.4 to 178.0

Trade Accordingly.

August Soybean Oil Recommended Position long at 2568

Support should appear at 2552 and 2519 below that 2469. Traders should Buy at 2469 and Hold. Resistance is at 2568 then 2573 and 2578. Above that 2612 offers resistance

Dec. Corn

Support should appear at 261 3/4 and 260 1/2, buy at 260 3/4 for a trade and risk a few cents. Below that 255 offers good support. Resistance is at 265 1/2 and 270.

Sep Wheat

Resistance is at 301 1/2 and 305 to 307. Support should appear at 295 1/2 to 293

and 289 1/2.

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position long at 7502

Support is at 7558 and 7542 to 7537. Below that 7410 should hold.

Resistance is at 7640 and 7770 above that resistance is at 8050.

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar

Support is 814 and 810, Below that 791 to 783 should hold, Day traders should buy at 795 and risk 20 pts. A slip under 783 augurs for a test of the 767 to the 763. Resistance at 823. Beyond that a trade to 847 is likely with a possible test of 863 to 877, traders should sell at 877 risk a close over 882 for three days in a row.

Sept. Coffee: Recommended Position Long at (2)121.95 and 120.30

On the DownSide, Early support is at 114.05 and 113.85 /113.60 to 113.00, below that 112.55 offers good support as does 111.35 On the Upside, Resistance is at 116.35 to 116.75 and 117.65 then 119.20 to 119.50 and 121.05

A close over 116.40 is friendly.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position long at 1635

Support is at 16 28 and 1615. Resistance is at 1642/ 1644 to 1655 then 1665 and the 1689 to 1696 region. Traders should go short at 1696 for a turn lower, risk a close over 1738 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

August Cattle Recommended Position long at 6665

Initial Support is at 6476 and 6467 Below that 6402 should hold. Resistance is at 6542 to 6552 then 6519.

Long term Friendly

July Hogs 

Nearby Support is 6247 to 6227 and 6202. Below that 6162 and 6092 offer good support. Resistance 6292 to 6307. Beyond that resistance is at 6370 to 6402. Traders can go short at 6367 for a quick turn lower, risk a close over 6432 for three day in a row.

Recommended Spread Long Oct. Short July Hogs at 870 Hold.

July Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6117 (2)

On the DownSide Support should be appear near the 5887 to 5855 region and may contain the break. Below that 5782 and 5742 below that 5657 offers support.

On the Upside Resistance is at 5932 and 6082 to 6110. An extended trade or close over 6087 augurs for a test of 6282.

Recommended Spread Long 5 July Short 5 August at 225 July over Aug. Hold.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 122-22 to 122-19/ 122-17 a close under 122-19 augurs for a test of 121-30 to 121-19 On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-02 and

123-19. Day traders should sell at 123-19 for a turn lower, risk 8 pts.

Sept. SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1123.80

On the DownSide, Support is at 1109.20 and 1106.80. Below that support lies at 1104.20 failure there augurs for a likely test of 1101 to 1098.50 and 1096.

On the Upside, Resistance is 1113.20 and 1114.30 to 1115.50 Beyond that sellers should appear at 1120.40 and 1123.50 then 1127.00. Beyond that 1130 and 1133 to 1136 offer good resistance. Traders should Sell at 1136 and hold for lower prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Initial support is at 8683 and 8663. Below that buyers should appear at 8626.5 and 8589 to 8560. A close under 8589 is negative for a slip to 8539 and it should hold, if not a slip towards 8406 /8391 is likely. Resistance should first appear at 8762 and 8777 beyond that 8799 and 8830 offer resistance. Beyond 8856 to 8871 should cap a rally today. Above that good resistance is now at 8904 to 8910.2 and 8934 to 8964.

Happy Trading and Enjoy this years Father's Day !

A Ship in Harbor is safe , but that's not what Ships are built for.

Bill

Sat June 20 1998

5:01 PM

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