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Morning Comments 6-30-1998

Monday, June 29, 1998

8:47 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7090

Support is 7168 and 7112, below that support is 7088 to 7074. Buyers should appear near 7068 and 7040. Beneath that support is 7002 to 6990. A close under 6990 augurs for a slip to 6919 to 6906. A close under 6906 indicates a test of 6836. Traders can buy at 6836 for a bounce only, risk 40 pts.

Resistance is at 7220 and 7242 to 7256. Beyond that resistance is 7328 to 7342. Traders should be prepared for another rally to the 7328 to 7342 region. A close over 7342 indicates a test of 7513 and 7665. Traders can go short at 7675, risk a close over 7690 for three days in a row.

 

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6755 and 6695

Support is at 6616 and 6587 to 6577, below that support is at 6537. A dip to the 6509/ 6483 region should contain a break. Nearby Resistance is at 6637 and 6673 to 6687

A close over 6673 is friendly for a test of the 6741 region. Beyond that resistance is near 6809.

*Traders should Go long/ Add on a close over 6615.

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6550 and 1.6420 Traders should Go long at 1.6420 risk a close under 1.6290. For two days in a row. Below that support is at 1.6150 to 1.6090. Buy at 1.6090 for a bounce, risk 100 pts.

Resistance is at and 1.6620 and 1.6686. A close over 1.6720 augurs for a test of 1.6890. Beyond that a rally to the 1.6960 region is likely. Traders should sell short at 1.6960, risk a close over 1.7140 two days in a row.

*Traders should Go long on a close over 1.6720

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long 5593.

Early support is at 5528 and the 5504 /5492 region. Below that Traders can buy at 5490 for a turn higher. Risk a close under 5470. Below that support is at 5430 to 5418. Day traders can buy at 5430 for a bounce, risk 20 pts.

Early Resistance should be evident at 5578. Beyond that sellers should raise their heads near the 5602 and 5625. However a trade over 5641 augurs for a test of 5653 beyond that a rally to 5688 is likely, Traders should go short at 5688 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row.

A close over 5551 is friendly

Sept. Canadian Dollar Recommended Position long at 6836 and 6856

Support is 6802 and 6786. Below that support is 6765 should hold today.

Resistance is at 6815 and 6836. A close over 6836 is friendly and indicates a test of 6865. A close over 6861 augurs for a thrust towards 6894 and the 6906 to 6914 where traders should sell at 6906, risk a close over 6922 for three days in a row.

Go long or Add on a close over 6836.

Trade Accordingly.

Precious Metals

August Gold

Nearby Support is at 293.90 to 293.10. Traders should buy at 293.10 and hold. Below that support is at 288.30 to 287 and 282.9 to 281.

Resistance is at 297.20 and 299.60

A close over 298.60 augurs for a test of 301 to 302.50 and most likely to 307 region. Beyond that resistance is at 312 to 316. In the short term a close over 297.20 is friendly.

Traders should add or go long on a close over 297.20 the initial target is 303.60

Sept. Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7480

Support is at 7335 and 7295 A close under indicates a test of 7215 below that 7015 to 6990 should hold. Traders can buy at 7015 for a turn higher, risk a close under 6990 or two days in a row.

Resistance is at 7425 and 7490. Above that resistance is at 7550 and 7615.

Beyond that 7770 and 7820 offer good resistance. A close over 7815 augurs for a test of 8025.

Trade Accordingly,

Oct. Platinum Recommended Position Long at 358.

Early Support is near 350.30 to 349.5 and 343. below that 338.7 and 331 should hold.

Resistance is at 358 and 361 Beyond that a rally to 365 and 374 is likely to occur. Beyond that 377 offers good resistance. Traders should Go Short at 377, risk a Close over 383 for two days in a row.

Long Term Friendly

Sept. Silver

On the Downside: Support is at 528.5 and 521. Day Traders can buy at 529, risk 4 cents below that Traders can buy at 521 and hold. Below that good buyers should appear at 501.5 and 498.5 traders should go long at 502 for a good 2 to 3 day bounce. Risk close under 491

On the Upside. resistance is at 536.5 and 541. A close over 541.5 augurs for a test of 556 beyond that good resistance is at 564.

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

August Crude Recommended Position Long at 1397 and 1423

Support is at 1394 and 1389, day traders should go long at 1394 and risk 30 pts.

Below that support is 1372 below that the 1346 to 1335 region should hold. A slip under augurs for test of 1310. Traders should buy at 1310 for a bounce, risk 20 pts.

Resistance is at 1414 and 1439 to 1444. Beyond that a thrust towards the 1465 is likely.

August Unleaded Gas Recommended position Long at 4635

Support is at 4645 and 4637. Below that support is 4582 and 4535.

Below that support is near 4503 and 4450.

Resistance is at 4735 and 4755 to 4786. A close over 4730 augurs for a test of 4890.

*Traders should go long on a close over 4717

August Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 3910

Resistance at 4065 and 4110. Above that 4170 offers resistance.

On the Downside Support is at 3905 and 3880, more should appear at 3765

Below that 3745 and 3660 should contain a break.

 

The Grande Grains

August Soybeans Recommended Position Long 646 3/4, 615 and 601 (2)

Support is at 604 3/4 and 5991/2. Day traders should buy at 605, risk 9 cents

Below that support should appear near the 590 to 587 region.

Resistance is at 618 1/2, Beyond that resistance is at 625 1/2.

Trade accordingly.

A good deal of technical damage was done yesterday, the question now is where will they stop? In my opinion those who sold near 600 before the rally, bought near the top of the rally and just dumped. So a bounce is likely from within the next 15 cents down.

Readers should be patient, keep a cool head and profit from the volatility.. Stay tuned..

Spread Long August Short Nov. at 24 cents over Hold

August Soybean Meal Recommended Position long at 166.10

Support is 158.80 and 152 below that support is 148.90

Resistance is at 163.10 and 164.20 Beyond that resistance is at 166.20.

August Soybean Oil Recommended Position long at 2594

Support is 2511 to 2498 and the 2469 to 2461 region. Traders should Buy at 2469 and Hold.

Resistance begins at 2526 and 2530. Beyond that resistance is 2583

Dec. Corn Recommended Position Long at 258 1/2 and 257 1/2

Support should appear near 252 1/4 and 247 3/4. Day Traders can buy at

248 for a bounce. Below that support is near 245 3/4 and 242 1/2

Resistance is at 255 3/4 and 2571/2. Beyond that resistance is at 262 1/4

Sept. Wheat Recommended Position Long at 290 3/4

Resistance is at 282 and 285 1/2 to 288.

On the Downside Support is at 279 1/2 and 276 3/4

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton

Support is at 7735 and 7685, beneath that Traders can buy at 7513 for a turn higher and hold for higher prices.

Day Traders can buy at 7735 for a bounce, risk 100 pts.

Resistance is 7840 to 7865 and 7950. A close over 7840 indicates a move towards 8050.

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar Recommended Position Short at 877

Support is 900 and 883 below that 877 and 840 to 835 offer good support

Resistance near at 908 and 923. A close over 923 augurs for a test of 932.

A close under 900 is negative for a pull back towards 840 /835

Sept. Coffee: Recommended Position Long at 121.95

On the DownSide, Early support is at 111.25 and 108.75. A close under 109.60 augurs for a test of support at 108.65 and 106.80. Below that 105.80 should hold.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 112.30 and 113.00 to 113.75, a close over 113.60 augurs for a test 115.45 and most likely 116.15 to 116.40 to 116.90

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position long at 1569

Support is at 1555 and 1540 to 1529 then 1514 which should hold. Day traders can buy at 1511, risk a trade under 1480.

Resistance is at 1564 and 1569 to 1576. A close over 1571 is friendly for a test of 1614 A trade through 1619 is friendly, traders should go long using a 1620 stop, risk a close back under 1609.

The Lively Livestock

August Cattle Recommended Position long at 6665 and 6532

Support is at 6512 and 6487 day traders can buy at 6487 for a turn higher, risk 100 pts. Below that 6442 to 6427 should hold.

Resistance is at 6577 and 6587. Beyond that good resistance is at 6607 and 6652

Long term Friendly

July Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6035. Initially risk a close under 5852 for two days in a row.

Support is 5962 and 5947 Under that 5882 to 5855 should hold.

Resistance is at 5992 and 6022 and 6047. Beyond that 6110 offers good resistance.

October Hogs

Recommended Long Oct. at 5370 from the spread Hold.

July Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6117 (2) and 5957

On the DownSide Support is at 5952 and 5920 Below 5952, support is at 5880 to 5855 and 5817 to 5802. Day Traders can buy at 5807 for a good bounce, risk 100 pts. Below that support is 5777 and 5727 then 5672 which should hold for a bit.

On the Upside Resistance is at 6017 and 6102 to 6117 A close over 6117 augurs for a test of 6162 to 6190 and the 6247/6257 to 6270.

Recommended Spread Long 2 July Short 2 August at 225 July over Aug. Hold.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 123-02, below that good support is at 122-25.

A close under 122-24 is negative and augurs for an eventual slip to the 121-25 region. Where traders can buy for a turn higher, risk a close under 121-13 for two days in a row. Below that 121-02 should hold.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-23/123-25, sell at 123-25 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-00 for two days in a row.

Sept. SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1123.80,1125.80 and 1136

On the DownSide, Support is at 1150.00 and 1149.30, below that support is at 1147 and 1142.00 under that support is at 1136. A trade under 1136 augurs for a test of 1133 and 1130. Below that support lies at 1126.20 and 1122.20.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1156 Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1157.20 and 1157.90 to 1158.40 If the sharp advance continues 1164 to 1169 should Cap a Rally. Sell Short at 1164 and Hold. Initially risking a close over 1169 for three days in a row Beyond that 1172.90 offers resistance.

* A close under 1150 is negative, if this occurs, traders who have 'Ice Water

Running through their Veins.' Should Go Short.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is at 8964 and 8934 below that 8904 should hold today , if not a slip towards 8871 to 8856 is likely. Under that support is at 8805.5. A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762/ 8859 region.

Resistance is at 9004. Beyond that 9044 to 9060 offers good resistance as does 9100 and 9140 to 9156 which should contain a rising mkt. If not a touch of 9236 to 9247 is likely.

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.

 

Happy Trading

Bill

Monday June 29 1998

10:23 PM

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THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.