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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Morning Comments
Fri. July 24 1998

Fri. July 24 1998
3:43 AM 

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) 7247

Support is 7170 to 7158 and 7143 then 7088 and 7076. A close under 7074 augurs for a slip towards 7030 and the 7003 to 6990 region.

Resistance is 7183 to 7197, Beyond that a test of 7242 to 7269 is likely. A close over 7170 is now friendly for a move towards resistance at 7242. -Patience-

Sept. Swiss

Resistance is at 6707 to 6708. Above that resistance is at 6737/ 6741 beyond that resistance is at 6755 and 6787 and 6794

Support is at 6694 and 6687 then 6673 to 6659 . below that 6644 to 6637. should hold.

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6420 to 1.6380.

Resistance is at 1.6510. The close over 1.6420 augurs for a test of 1.6550. Traders can sell at 1.6510, risk a close over 1.6550 for three days in a row.

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5490

Nearby Resistance is at 5636 and 5641. The close over 5610 augurs for another test of 5640 and 5680 to 5686 then 5702 and 5726. Traders should go short at 5688 for a quick turn lower. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row.

Support is at 5599 and 5586 to 5580 then 5577 which should contain a break today. Day traders can buy at 5587 and hold for higher prices

Traders should try to buy this dip.

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support is at 6677 to 6664, day traders can buy at 6677 for a bounce only, risk 25 pts.

Resistance is at 6727. A close over 6727 is friendly and indicates a test of 6741 to 6755 if it holds.

Precious Metals

August Gold Recommended Position Long at 298.10 and 293.10

Support is at 292.60 then 288.10, day traders can buy at 288.30, risk $ 4.00.

Resistance is at 294.60 and 295.20 A close over 295.20 augurs for a test of the 303.60 to the region, where good sellers should appear.

* Traders should go long if a close over 295.20 occurs,

Sept. Copper:

Support is at 7740 to 7720 and 7690, day traders can buy at 7740 for a bounce, risk 100 pts. Below that good support is at 7540.

Resistance is at 7940, beyond that sellers should appear at 8090 to 8140, day traders can sell at 8090 for a turn lower, risk 100 pts.

Oct. Platinum

Nearby Support is at 382.5 and 381.90 day traders can buy at 382 for a bounce, risk $5.00 a sustained slip under 380.0 augurs for a pullback towards 372, go long at 365, risk a close under 361 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 392.0 and 400.5 then 407.5 to 409.5 Traders should Go Short at 409 for a quick turn lower. Risk a Close over 412 for two days in a row.

Sept. Silver Recommended Position Long at 565

On the Downside: Nearby Support is at 578 and 570 then 551. Day traders can buy at 570 for a bounce.

On the Upside. Resistance is at 585 A close over 585 is friendly for a test of the Resistance at 609 beyond that a trade to the 617/ 625 region is likely, if it holds.

Buy dips

The Exciting Energies

September Crude

Support is at 1371 then 1362, day traders should go long at 1362 for a quick turn higher. More support is at 1346 to 1336.

Resistance is at 1412 then 1421 and 1437. However, a close over 1421 augurs for an eventual test of 1484.

September Unleaded Gas

Support is at 4240 and 4195

Resistance is at 4345 and 4395 then 4440.

A close over 4345 is friendly

Trade accordingly.

September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748

Resistance is at 3735 and 3755 beyond that 3870 offers resistance.

A close over 3755 is friendly

Support is at 3670 then 3657 to 3643

 

The Grande Grains

This Weekend the Bi-Weekly Investment outlook II will be published. Our analysis will roll to Dec. Bean OIL, Dec. Wheat and Dec. Soybean Meal.

We will continue to track August Beans and Meal for a bit, but will put the August Bean Oil and Sept. Wheat to bed so to speak..

August Soybeans Recommended Position Long 646 3/4 and 624

Support is at 603 1/4 and 601 day traders can buy at 601 for a good bounce.

Resistance is at 611 and 615, a thrust over or close over 611 indicates a an eventual test of the 629 to 631 region.

Trade accordingly.

November Soybeans recommended position long at 588

Support is at 566 1/2 and 565 3/4 below that support is at 551 and 548. Traders should buy for the Pull at 549 1/2.

Resistance is at 574 1/4 and 576 then 579. A sustained trade over or close over 576 augurs for a test of 593 and more likely 604 If it holds.

A close today over 574 1/4 is friendly.

August Soybean Meal

Support is at 162 and 161.1 then 159.3 which should contain a decline today.

Resistance is at 164.6 and 169.1

Dec. Corn

Support is at 230 3/4 day traders can buy at 230 3/4 for a bounce, risk 3 cents. Below that support is at 225 1/2 and 223 3/4

Resistance is at 233 1/2 to 234 1/4 then 235 1/2 beyond that resistance is at 240 1/2.

A close over 234 1/2 is friendly.

 

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7513 and 7235

Support is at 7180 and 7149

Resistance is 7249 and 7280 to 7298, above that 7335 offers resistance.

Oct. Sugar

Support is at 861 then 852 to 847. Below that support should be firm at 821 to 814. Traders can buy at 823 risk a close under 814 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 795 to 782.

Resistance is at 866, beyond that resistance is at 877 to 882 then 901.

Sept. Coffee:

On the DownSide, support is at 113.60 and 113.45 to 113.00 then 112.40. Below that a slip to 110.95 to 110.10 is likely. Under that support is near 109.60.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 114.95 then 115.95 to 116.40 /116.90 Beyond that a test of 117.70 to 118.30 and eventually 119.20 to 120.30 is likely, if it holds.

Trade accordingly.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended position long at 1586

Traders should use a stop close under 1561 for two days in a row for protection

Support is at 1569 and 1567. Below that support is at 1559 and 1536 to 1529 which should hold. Day traders can buy at 1567, for a bounce only. risk a trade under 1551.

Beneath that Traders can buy at 1537, risk a trade under 1490. traders can buy at 1560 for a good bounce.

Resistance is at 1576 and 1592, beyond that a test of 1609 to 1617 is likely. Beyond that resistance is at 1633 then 1642 to 1655 where traders can go short for a turn lower at 1655, risk a close over 1692 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

Oct. Cattle Recommended position long at (3) 6210

Support is at 6190 then 6160 and 6147 to 6132.

Resistance is at 6222 and 6257 to 6270 then 6297.
A close over 6257 is friendly

August Hogs Recommended Position long (2) 5265 and (2) 4977

Support is at 4822 and 4787 to 4777.

Resistance is at 4867 to 4877 beyond that resistance is at 4920 and 4967.

A close over 4877 is friendly

October Hogs Recommended position Long at 4612

Resistance is at 4337 and 4417. Support is at 4317 an 4252

August Bellies

Support is at 5907 and 5757, day traders can buy at 5762. Put you own risk on it.

Resistance is at 5967 then 6057 and 6102 to 6112.

Stay tuned for Updates

-From the Frying Pan into the Fire-

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 123-02 and 122-16 Below that good support is at 122-12. On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-12 Beyond that resistance is at 123-18 and 124-12.

Sept. SP500

On the DownSide, Support 1150 then 1146.90 to 1144 and 1141.90 under that support is at 1139.80 to 1138.70 and 1136. A trade under 1136 augurs for a test of 1134.20 to 1133.10 and 1130. Below that support lies at 1128.60 and 1122.20. A close under 1122.20 augurs for a test of 1115 and 1110.40.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1155.60 and 1160.30, day traders should sell at 1160.10 for a turn lower, out your own risk on it. Beyond that resistance is at 1161.80 and 1164 then 1166.50 and 1169.00. Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1176.80 and 1180.50 Day traders can sell at 1180.50 for a turn lower.

Stay tuned.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8904 and 8871 to 8856, under that support is at 8821 and 8805.5.

A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762.
A close under 8759 augurs for a test of 8719 and an eventual test of 8683 to 8668.

Resistance is at 8934 and 8941.40 to 8949. Beyond that resistance is at 9004 and 9044 to 9060. Which should Cap a rally today.

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.

Happy Trading

Bill

Friday July 24 1998

5:29 AM

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