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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk."
-Reminiscences of a Stock Operator-

Morning Comments
8/5/1998

 

Tuesday August 4th 1998
7:14 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) at 7245 and 3 at 7003

Nearby Support is 6937 and 6919 to 6906 then 6896 to 6886

Resistance is at 6990 to 7003 then 7023 and 7037 to 7057, However a close over or extended trade over 7003 augurs for a rally to 7074 and 7088.

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position long at 6990 and 6757

Resistance is 6781 Beyond that resistance is at 6809 to 6814 and 6836. Support is at 6764 and 6755 then 6707.

Buy Dips

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6250 Below that a slip to 1.6150/ 1.6090 is likely. Traders should buy at 1.6150 and hold for higher prices. Resistance is at 1.6420 and 1.6550

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5610

Nearby Resistance is at 5713/5716 to 5723/5729.

Support is at 5641 and 5624 to 5613. Below that support is at 5600 then 5594 and 5577. Traders can buy at 5589, risk close under 5553 for three days in a row.

Buy Dips

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support is at 6591 and 6577. Resistance is at 6615 and 6654.

Precious Metals

Dec gold Recommended position long 2 at 291

Support is at 291.6 and 288.2 Beneath that support is at 281 and 277
**Traders can buy at 288.00, risk $ 4.00

Resistance is at 293.1 and 298.2 A close over 293 augurs for a test of 301 to 303.60 where good sellers should appear.

**Traders should go long if a close over 293 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Sept. Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7710

Nearby Support is at 7345 and 7295 to 7250

Resistance is at 7445 then 7590

Oct. Platinum Recommended Position long at 372.5

Nearby Support is at 377 and 371.5 then 366.

Resistance is at 382 and 387 to 391.5

Bullish long term.

Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 565, 570, 553.5

On the Downside: support is at 532.5 and 529, day traders should buy at 533 for a good bounce, risk 10 cents On the Upside. Resistance is at 551, a close over 552 augurs for an eventual test of 572.5.

The Exciting Energies

September Crude Recommended Position Long at 1418 and 1377

Support is at 1342 to 1334. Day Traders can go long at 1325 for a bounce, risk 30 cents. Resistance is at 1375 and 1392. A close over 1383 indicates a test of the 1415 region.

September Unleaded Gas recommended position long at 4249

Nearby Support is at 4190 to 4175 then 4095 to 4087.

Resistance is at 4245 and 4281 to 4294. A close over 4239 augurs for an eventual trade to 4387.

September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748

Resistance is at 3634 and 3775. Support is at 3575 and 3505.

 

The Grande Grains

November Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 588, 2 @ 566 1/4

Support is at 540 Traders should buy for the Pull at 540 1/2.

Resistance is at 550 1/2 and 556 3/4. A close over 557 is friendly for a rally to 563.

Dec. Soybean Meal Recommended position long at 143

Support is 142.4 and 140.5. Resistance is at 145.2 and 150.4

**Traders should go long/ add if a close over 145.2 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Dec. Soybean Oil recommended position long at 2475 and 2412

Support is at 2384 and 2370 Resistance is at 2411 to 2419 and 2437 to 2442.

A close over 2440 is friendly and augurs for a test of 2469.

Dec. Corn

Support is at 220 3/4 and 218.0 below that 212 should hold. Traders should buy at 212 for a 2-3 day bounce, risk a close under 208 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 224 3/4 and 225 1/2, a close over 225 1/2 augurs for a short covering rally towards resistance at 228 and 230.

Dec. Wheat

Resistance is at 265 and 268 A close over 268 augurs for a rally to 273 3/4

Support is at 262 3/4 and 260 to 257.

 

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7513,7235,7092

Support is at 6979, below that 6952 offers good support.

Resistance is 7055 then 7068 and 7105

A close Wed. over 7068 is friendly and augurs fopr a rally to 7200.

Oct. Sugar recommended trade elected short at 877

Support is at 866 then 852 then 848 to 843.

Resistance at 877 to 882 and 888 to 889. Beyond that resistance is at 907.

Sept. Coffee:

On the downside, Early support is at 128.40 and 127.40 to 127.05 then 126.80. Below that support is at 125.15 and 123.80 to 123.20.

Well Heeled Day traders can buy an early dip at 128.35 for a bounce, risk a trade under 124.90.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 129.50 and 130.15 to 130.40 / 131.00, beyond that a test of 132.05 and 133.40 to 134.60 is likely..if it holds. Conversely A close under 128.35 is negative.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1586, 1570 and 1535.
Risk a close under 1529 for two days in a row on all positions

Support. Is at 1529 and 1527 then 1514.

Resistance is at 1569 to 1573 1577. A close over 1577 is friendly for a pop to 1609.

The Lively Livestock

October Cattle Recommended Position long at 3 @ 6210.

Support is at 5997 and 5925. Day traders should buy at 5957. Risk 80 pts

Resistance is at 6072 A close over 6072 augurs for a test of resistance at 6147.

August Hogs Recommended Position long 2 at 4977

Support is at 5022 and 4977 below that support is at 4922.

Resistance is at 5067 and 5107 to 5127.

October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 4612, 2 @ 4382 and 4227.

Resistance is at 4342 to 4357 and 4372. Beyond that a pop to 4417 is likely.

Support is at 4277 Below that Hearty day traders can buy at 4227 for a good bounce

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

August Bellies Recommended Position long at 5917 and 5775

Support is at 5937 and 5912, well heeled traders should buy at 5932 for a bounce

Below that support is at 5880 to 5855 then 5787 Below that 5717 should contain a break. Resistance is at 6082 and 6102 to 6127, beyond that a test of 6212 to 6237 is likely Stay Tuned.

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Support is at 123-10 and 123-05, below that support is near 122-21 then 121-29. In ability to close over 123-21 is negative, and augurs for an eventual

Slip to 122-21.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-21. A close over 123-21 is friendly for a push

Towards 123-29/ 123-30 and 124-21. Sell at 124-13 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-21 for two days in a row.

Sept. SP500

On the DownSide, Support is at 1068/ 1067.90 and 1065.40 to 1063 a close under 1063 is negative for a drop to 1058 and eventually 1149.70 to 1047 where traders can buy at 1049.70 and hold for higher prices.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1082 and 1086.20

Day traders can sell at 1086.20 for a turn lower. Beyond that resistance is at 1096 to 1097.40 where **traders should go short at 1097.20 for a turn lower. . Above that resistance is at 1098.50 and 1101. Above that resistance is at 1115.50.

Stay tuned for new trades and flashes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8484 and 8445, below that 8406 to 8391 offers some support. Under that a trade to 8314 to 8300 is likely. A close under 8300 augurs for an eventual test of 8180.

Resistance should first appear at 8499 and 8560 to 8589/ 8598 then 8639 should cap a rally for a least a brief moment. Above that resistance is at 8668 to 8683. Beyond that resistance is at 8703.

A close over 8640 friendly.

 

Happy Trading

Bill

Tuesday August 4th 1998

08:26 PM

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THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.