Morning Comments
February 11th 1998
 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Wednesday, February 11, 1998
4:32:20 AM

March J-Yen
Nearby support is at 8081 and 8075 below that  8044, More downside support should appear at 7963 and 7954 Traders can buy for a position  at 7963. Risk  a close Under 7939  for three days in a row. Below that 7868  to 7836 should act as Support. If that fails traders should buy at 7777 for a ‘bounce’  risk 30 pts. Resistance is near   8161 to 8194.  A close or extended traded over 8164 is bullish , traders should go long if that occurs.  Some sellers should appear near 8223 beyond that 8300 to 8314 should trade. If a sharp rally to 8526 ensues go short for a turn , risk a close over 8589 for three day in a row.

Near term a close over 8112 is friendly.
Eventually I see a test of 8800.

Trade Accordingly

March Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long 6857
Support should appear at 6843. More support should appear at 6836 to 6828 and 6810.  Resistance should begin 6864 then 6906 to 6919. Beyond that a test of  6954 is likely. A close over 6958 augurs for a 'pop' to 6990 / 7003 beyond that 7039 is likely.
A close over 7039 augurs for a Thrust to 7074. A  close over 7088 augurs for a 'pop' to 7120 and most likely the 7143 to 7170 region where resistance  should appear. A close over 7170 indicates a pop to 7243 to 7256.  Sell short at 7242 for position, risk a close  over 7257 for two days in a row.

Traders should expect a weaker Dollar over the next few weeks

Buy Dips

March British: Recommended Position Long at 163.40
Support is near 161.50 to 160.90. Resistance is at 164.20 and 165.50 , a close over 163.20 augurs for a test to 164..20 and 165.50.   Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark
Early support is at 5505 to 5492  and 5462. Buy at 5462 risk a close  under 5416  for three days in a row. Below that support should appear near 5423 where day traders can buy at for a bounce, risk a trade under  5402.
Nearby Resistance is at  5515 and 5565 . A close over 5558 is friendly , traders should go long if that occurs. Resistance is near 5574 and 5581 early in the week . Beyond that 5608 and 5610 to 5628 offer resistance.  A close over 5610 augurs for a pop to 5640 / 5653. Traders should sell at 5653 for a quick 'day' turn lower, looking to cover back against 5610 ,stay tuned.
However a close over 5653 augurs for a test of 5716 to 5729. A close over 5729 augurs for a test of 5781 to 5792  then 5812. Sell short for a turn lower at  5812, risk a close over 5855 for tow days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Early Support is near the  6945 and 6925.  Traders should go long  at  6919 for a bounce , risk  a close under 6906  for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 6995 and 7025 more should appear at 7039 and 7074 to 7088, sell short for a turn lower at 7081, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row.
 

April Gold
Good Support is near 301  and 296.1 Below that buy weakness at 293.8  Below that 291 offers support. Resistance is  305, traders can go long on a close over 304.5  A close  over 305  augurs for a rally back to 311 where resistance remains.  Beyond that 316.4 / 318.9 to 321 or beyond to 331 is likely  to be tested.

March Copper
Support is at 7645 and 7525
Resistance is at  7725 a close over is  friendly for a 'pop' to 7890. Beyond that 7865 offers resistance , a close over 7925 indicates a rally back to 8050, above that traders should sell at 8300 risk a close over 8320 for two days in a row.

April Platinum
Support is near  384.5 and 378.5 , go long at 378.5, risk  a close under 373 for three days in a row. Below that support should appear  near 367. Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce , risk  a close under 358. Resistance is at  393 and 396 beyond that 406 , a close over 407 augurs for a test of  413 or higher.   Traders should sell at 422 , risk a close over 425 for three days in a row. Beyond that 440 and 460 should trade.

Friendly..
 
March Silver
Early support is at 697 Below that support should appear at 661 an 655 Go long March Silver at 655 for a bounce, risk 10 cents. A break to 615 to 598 should be bought if it occurs. Resistance is near  737.

A close over 737 augurs for as test of 774  to 777. Beyond that 812 should trade.

                             The Exciting Energies

March Crude Recommended Position Long at 1643
Support is at 1642 and 1636  Additional support should show up around 1590.
Resistance should first appear near  1667 then 1686, an extended  trade over or close over 1695 augurs for test of  1740 then 1790 to 1819.  A close over 1820  augurs for a 'pop' to the 1871 /1902 area.

March-Unleaded Gas Recommended Position Long at 5060.
Good support should appear near 5045. More support should become evident at 4885. Resistance should raise it's head at 5145 and 5225 , a close over 5230 is friendly for a 'pop' to  5335 / 5355 where resistance remains beyond that a trade to 5470 is likely , traders can sell at 5470 and risk a close over 5580 for three days in a row. Stay tuned. Beyond that 5805 should cap any normal rally.

Friendly , Buy dips.
 

March Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 4585
Resistance is near 4635. Support is  4450.  If March Heat is able a close over 4640,  a trade to  Resistance near 4820 to 4845 is likely. A close over 4845 is bullish for a thrust to 4930 then 5025 where resistance should appear.  If not a rally to the 5170 / 5245 region is likely , go short at 5200 , risk 100 pts. Beyond that 5395 should cap any normal rally , sell short at 5415 , risk a close over 5430 for two days in a row.
 
 

                              The ‘Grande’ Grains

March Beans:
Early support is 690 under that buyers should appear at 685 and 677 3/4. Go long at 677 3/4  for a position. Stay tuned for the stop.
The  close over 691  augurs for  a test of 6990. With a likely test of 702 then 708 to 715 where good sellers should appear,  beyond that 736 offers resistance.

March Soybean Meal Recommended Position Long at 197.50
Support should appear is at 195.6 and 193.7.  Buy at 194  risk a close under 190.00 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 199.7, a close over 199.7  is friendly for a test of 201.5 and 204. Beyond that 209 to 211 offers resistance sell at 211, risk a close over 215.5 for two days in a row.
 

March Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2650, below that 2589.  Resistance is near  the  2703 region. Beyond that  Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2776 for two days in a row. Beyond that 2829 to 2849 should cap a rally.

March Corn
Support is should appear near 268 3/4 and 265. Buy at 265 risk a close under 261 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 274/275 1/2 a close over 276.  augurs for a ‘pop’ to 279 with 284 to 289 beyond that. If March Corn maintains a posture over 270 early this week it should be considered  friendly, if not a slip to lower levels is likely.
 

March Wheat
Support is at 331 3/4. Traders should Buy March Wheat at 331 3/4  and hold.
Beneath that 326 1/2 to 323 should be considered a buying region. Go long at 326 1/2  and hold. Resistance is near   338 1/4 a close over 338 1/2 augurs for a trade to 343 and beyond  to  350. A close over 350 1/2 indicates a thrust to 356 /358 and 362 3/4.
If this occurs most traders will probably be buying wheat with reckless abandon, so sell it to them at 367 for a turn lower  and risk a close over 375  for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

                               The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton
Early Support is at  6730  close under augurs for a slip to 6650 then 6567, buy at 6568 a close under 6508 for three days in a row. Resistance is at  6830. Traders should sell short at 6830, risk a close over 6890.  If the Cotton Stretches out to 6990, go short for a quick lower, risk a close over 7080 for three days in a row.

Long Term Friendly on Dips.

March Sugar
Nearby support is 1072 more  Support should appear near 1046. Traders can go long at 1046 for a quick turn higher, risk a close under 1027. Resistance is near 1091. The close over 1076 early in the week is friendly for a test of   1091 then 1096 to 1101. if Sugar pulls itself out of the hole and closes over 1101 or even 1111 a rally back to resistance near 1130 to 1136  should occur. A close over 1136 augurs for trade to 1165 and 1192 to 1205. Go   short at 1196, risk 20 pts.

March Coffee Recommended Position Long at 176.50 and 169.60
On the Downside early support is at 166.70 then 165.50 and 164.20, if that fails a trade to the 161.50/ 160.80 region is likely. Traders should go long at 159.40 and  hold.  On the Upside, resistance is near 169.20 to 169.75, a close over 169.75 augurs for a test of  174.10 and 175.40 , beyond that 177.70 and 178.00, above that 178.90, an extended trade over, or close  over 179.40 augurs for a rally to 180.40  with a likely test of 181.40 and 182.20 where good resistance remains. Above that  184.30 to 186.50 should cap a rally for a bit. Beyond that  Traders should sell at 194.60 risk a close over 195.30. for two days in a row. More sellers should appear near 198.20 and 199.60.

Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.

 
May Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1554.
Early resistance is  1573. Support is near 1543  and 1523. More support should appear at 1519 to 1510..  A close under  1483 augurs for a  slip to  1459 to 1453, buy at 1459,  risk a close under 1436 for two days in a row.
 
 

                        The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle Recommended Position Long at 6602.
Traders should have bought the close over 6592 yesterday. For today only , risk a close under 6502.   Support is 6557  and  6505 to 6472 below that 6417.
Resistance is near at  6622. A close over 6622 augurs for a test of  and  6692 to 6712   A close early this week  over 6617 may  'trap' the shorts and  cause a thrust to the 6692/ 6712 region. A close over 6715 augurs for a rally to 6757 with a likely touch of Resistance near the 6807 to 6842 region.   Beyond that resistance remains near 6907 to 6917 and 6970/ 6985 with 7115 to 7145 above that.
 

April Hogs Recommended Position Long at 5557 and 5440
Traders should risk a close under 5332 for three days in a row on a all positions.
Early Resistance is at 5442 and 5487  Support is near 5312.

A close over 5427 is friendly , over 5447 augurs for a reversal.
 

March Bellies Recommended position Long at 4612 .
Support is near 4397 and  4245. Resistance is near resistance is near 4535  and 4660 to 4717, a close over 4495 is friendly.

 
             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

March  30 Yr. Bonds
Near Term support  is at  120-25 and 120-20. A close under 120-18  augurs for a slip to the 119-18 region, below that traders should buy at 119-00, risk a close under 118-20 for three days in a row. Below  that  117-11 should hold, buy at 117-11 for a bounce, risk a close under 116-20 for  two days in a row. Resistance is at  121-20 to , beyond that  resistance should appear near 121-26 and 122-18 traders should sell at 122-18 risk a close over  122-24 for two days in a row. Beyond that a trade to 123-29 is likely, sell at 123-29 and hold.
 

March SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1024.70
On the Downside, Support is near  1024.10 and 1015 to the  1013.10 / 1012.00 region and 1010.4. Note 1015  is critical and should hold basis the close.
 Below that 1008.10 and the 1007.50 /1007.10 region  offer support.  A slip under 1007.10 augurs for a trade to 1004.30 and the 1003.70/ 1003.40 region  with 1002.10 below that. Failure of 1002.10 basis the close indicates a  decline to 997.90. Below that
993.70 to 992.10 and 987.90 offer support as does 986.00. A close under 986 augurs for a slip to 984.40 and 983.70 to 982.10. Failure there is negative and indicates a test  980.20. and  973.70 then the 971.80 to 970.60 region which has to hold or else it falls into a hole that should bring the market down to 964.10 and 962.50.  Beneath 162.05,  956.70 to the 954.20/953.90 and 952.60/ 951.90 regions offer support Under that 944.50 and 942.90  offer support as does 940.90 Traders can Buy for a turn higher at 940.90. stay tuned for a stop. Below that 938.80 and 934.70 to 931.60 offer support. If the 938.80 region or 934.70 level fails  a decline to 931.60 will likely take place.  Beneath that 925.10 then 923.60 to 920.30 offer support. A close under 923.60 augurs for a test of  915.60 to 914.A close under 914.00  indicates a slip to 910.00 then 906.40/906.00 and 904.40. However a close under 904.40 augurs for a test 896.60 to 893.40 where Traders can Buy and hold.
On the Upside Early Resistance is at  1027.80 and 1031.80 to  1032.0 and 1036.0 which should cap this current rally, traders should sell at 1035.80 and hold. Risk a close over 1036.00 for two days in a row. Beyond that 1047 is likely with 1058 and 1068 beyond that.
 

*** A close under 1015.10 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'  should Go Short.
 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support is at 8223 .85 and 8194 below that 8143 to 8138 and 8134 to 8119.
Note   8223 is critical basis the close.
Beneath  that 8094 to 8076 should contain an early break this week, however if it fails at 8076 a slip to 7969 to 7954 is likely. A close under 7947 is negative and indicates  an eventual decline to 7640. Resistance is near  8300 to 8314 Beyond that  8366 and 8391 to 8406  should bring a few sellers off the sidelines for profit taking

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk , Without Risk there is no Reward.

Happy Trading

Bill
 

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