Morning Comments

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Morning Comments
February 25 1998

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Wed, February 25, 1998
04:18:28 AM
On the Frenzied Forex Front

March J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7963
Nearby support is at 7864 and 7837 below that 7777, More downside support should appear at 7719 to 7716 with 7689 to 7675 beneath that.
Hearty Traders can buy for a position at 7719. Risk a close Under 7670 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 7909 to 7922 A close or extended traded over 7865 is friendly, traders should go long if that occurs. Additional Resistance should appear at 7963 and 8019 beyond that 8122. If a sharp rally occurs Traders can go short at 8223 for a turn lower , risk 50 pts basis the close.

March Swiss Franc
Support should appear at 6871 and 6836. A close under 6781 augurs for a test of 6755. Below that traders should Go long for a bounce at 6741. Risk 20 pts. Resistance should begin at 6893 and 6906 to 6919 then 6944. A close over 7003 augurs for a Thrust to 7074.

Traders should expect a weaker Dollar over the next two weeks

March British:
Support is at 164.22 then 162.82 under that 162.34.
Below that Support is near 161.50 to 160.90. Traders should buy at 161.50 for a bounce, risk a trade under 160.80. Resistance is at 165.50 and 167.30. Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark Recommended Position Long at 5578
Early support is at 5553 and 5546. Resistance is near 5581 and 5596 Beyond that 5602 and 5640 offer's resistance. Traders should sell at 5640 for a quick 'day' turn lower, stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Support is near the 7019 and 7002 to 6990 regions . Traders can buy at 6990 , risk a close under 6970 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 7074 and 7088. Traders should short at 7086 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row. Beyond that Resistance is near 7143

Precious Metals
April Gold
Good Support is near 288. Position Traders should weakness at 288.5 and Hold.
Resistance is 302 and 303.7, traders can go long on a close of 303.6 or higher.
Additional Resistance is near 307.7 and 311. 5 , traders can short at 311.5 for a quick turn only , risk a trade over 314.5.

Friendly, Buy Dips.

May Copper
Support is at 7070 below that traders can buy at 7060 for a good bounce , risk a close under 6990 for three days in a row. Resistance is at 7415 and 7515 to 7520 , a close over 7515 is friendly for a 'pop' to 7835. Traders should go long on a close higher that 7515.
Beyond that 7865 offer's resistance, a close over 7880 indicates a rally back to 8070, and 8300 . above that traders should sell short at 8480 risk a close over 8500 for two days in a row.

April Platinum Recommended Position Long at 378.5 risk a close under 373 for three days in a row.
Support is near 371.5. Below that support should appear near 370.4 and 368 Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce , risk only $ 4.00 . Below that 344 should stop any
decline. Nearby resistance is at 379.7 , a close over is friendly. Beyond that 382.5 then 390.4, a close over 391 augurs for a test of 399 to 404.

Long Term Friendly

March Silver
Support is at 631.5 and 625.5, aggressive traders should Buy March Silver at 627, risk a close under 617 for three days in a row. A break to 598 should be bought if it occurs.
Buy at 601 , risk 12 cents. Below that 568 should hold.
Resistance is near 671 then 703. A close over 7676 is friendly and augurs for a test of 696 . A close over 696 indicates a test of the 714 and the highs near 750, beyond that 774 then 812.

May Silver
Support is near 635 Resistance is near 657 , a close over augurs for a test of 669 and 694
Be Long

The Exciting Energies

April Crude Recommended Positions , long at 1603 and 1535
Early support is at 1513 Resistance should first appear near 1538 and 1574

April Unleaded Gas Recommended Position long at 5260
support should appear near 5040 and 4930 Resistance is near 5145 and 5230.
Friendly , Buy dips.

April Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 4445 and 4320
Support is 4230 and 4170 Resistance near 4375, a close over 4380 is friendly

The ‘Grande’ Grains

March Beans: Recommended Position Long at 677 1/2 and 651
Support is 651 Resistance is near 669 1/2 a close over 673 augurs for an eventual test of 691 where good sellers should appear, beyond that 712 offers resistance.

May Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 653
Support is at 653 Resistance is near 658. A close over 668 augurs for a thrust towards 678

May Soybean Meal
Go long May Meal on a close over 182.5.
Support is 174.9 Resistance is near 179 and 186.

May Soybean Oil
support is at 2617 / 2589 region where traders should have Buy orders waiting for a bounce, buy at 2590, risk a close under 2568 for three days in a row. If that fails , a dip to 2514 is likely, buy at 2519 risk a close under 2510 for two days in a row.
Resistance is near 2758 to 2775, Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2798 for two days in a row.

May Corn Recommended Position Long at 271
Support is at 266. Resistance is near 272 and 275 a close over 272. augurs for a ‘pop’ to 280 / 281.

March Wheat Recommended Positions , long at 331 1/2 and 326
Support is at 320 and 313. Resistance is near 328

May Wheat Recommended Position long at 329 3/4
Support is near 324 and 312. Resistance is near 336 and 341. Beyond that 347 and 359.

The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton Recommended Position Long at 6568
Roll to May on Open

May Cotton Recommended Position Long at 6610
Support is 6507 to 6483, Resistance is 6567 , beyond that 6680 and 6825, Go short at 6825 , risk a close over 6920 for three days in a row.

May Sugar Recommended Position Long at 972
Nearby support is 942 and 917. Resistance is near 970 and 1002

May Coffee
On the Downside, support is at 169.60 to 168.90. Below that 166.70 and 164.20 should hold, more support should appear near 163.50 and 161.50/ 161.10. Closing under 160.90 augurs for a slip to 156.35 Aggressive Traders should have buy orders waiting at 156.90, initially plan a risk on a close under 153.50.
If the Coffee Cools off and trades down to 141.70 Traders should go long and hold.
On the Upside, resistance is near 173.10 to 173.80, beyond that 176.45 should trade.
A close over 176.45 augurs for a rally to 181.20 with a likely test of 182.20 where resistance remains. Above that 190.20 to 190.90 should cap a rally for a bit.
If the Coffee Boils over and trades to 212.60 Traders should sell and risk a close over 213.40. for two days in a row

Still Friendly..

Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.

May Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1554
Resistance is 1569 and rally to 1584 /1588.
Beyond that a trade to 1642 /1655 should occur.
Support is near 1538 and 1535 to 1529. Below that support should appear near 1522 then 1496 to 1483. A close under 1483 augurs for a slip to 1459 to 1453, buy at 1452 risk a close under 1436 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle Recommended Position Long at 6347
Support is 6375 and 6347. Resistance is near at 6512 and 6542. A close over 6542 is friendly for a short covering rally to 6627. Traders should go long if a close over 6545 occurs.

April Hogs Long at 5145
Resistance is at 4945 and 5027 Support is near 4900 and 4827.

Recommended Spread Position long April Short June at 820 and 865 under.

March Bellies Recommended Position Long at 4612
Hold

May Bellies
Support is near 4002 . Traders should buy at 4002 for the Pull Resistance is near 4422 and 4487 to 4512, a close over 4427 is friendly for a rally to 4557 to 4575.

'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

30 Yr. Bonds I will roll to June on Thursday’s Comments
Cancel all March Orders
Still negative for a drop towards 118-17 in June.

March SP500 Recommended positions Short at 1023 and 1035.80
On the Downside, Support is near 1032 and 1031.50, below that 1028.80/ 1028.60 is critical and should hold basis the close. As should 1024.80, a close under 1024.80 augurs for a slip to the 1013.60/ 1013.10 region with 1012.00 and 1010.4 under that.
A slip under 1008.90 augurs for a trade to 1004.30 and the 1003.70/ 1003.40 region with 1002.10 below that. Failure of 1004.20 basis the close indicates a decline to 991.80
On the Upside, Resistance is at 1038.40 1043.90 to 1047. Beyond that 1057 to 1058
offers, traders can sell at 1058, risk 600 pts. Beyond that 1068 is likely.

* A close under 1028.70 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins' should Go Short.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support at 8362 is critical basis the close. Beneath that 8264 to 8223 should contain an early break this week, however if the Dow fails at 8223 basis the close a slip to 81143 to 8119 is likely. Resistance is near 8445. Beyond that 8466 and 8884 to 8499 offers resistance as does 8532 which should cap the current rally
Beyond that sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk, Without Risk there is no Reward.

Happy Trading

Bill

Wed, February 25, 1998
5:11 AM