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"Among the hazards of  speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the
 unexpectable -ranks  high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in
taking -chances  that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk"
                            --Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--
Morning Comments
Friday February 27 1998
 
 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
 
 

Thursday, February 26, 1998
6:25:51 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

March J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7963 and  7886
Today's support  is at  7864 to 7849, under that 7836 and 7808
Below that 7777 and 7719 to 7716 Hearty  Traders can buy for a position at 7719. Risk  a close Under 7670 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near  7901 which should trade this eve, beyond that 7939 and 7949 offer resistance.  A close or extended traded over 7949  is Bullish for a ‘pop’ to  additional Resistance near 7954 and 8019 beyond that 8122.  If a sharp rally occurs Traders can go short at 8223 for a turn lower, risk  50 pts basis the close.

A  Mirror Image is now in Place ....

March Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long at 6826   (this Evening)
Support should appear at 6809 and 6801 to 6781.  A close under 6781 augurs for a test of 6764 to 6755. Below that traders should  Go long for a bounce at 6741. Risk 20 pts. Resistance should begin at  6836 and 6851 to 6864, a close over 6864 augurs for a test of 6893 and 6906 to 6919 then 6944.  A close over 7003 augurs for a Thrust to 7074.

Traders should continue to expect a weaker Dollar over the next two weeks

March British:
Support is at 164.20 under  that 163.80 and 162.80  Below that Support is near 161.50 to 160.90. Traders should buy at 161.50 for a bounce, risk a trade under  160.80. Resistance is at 165.50 and 167.30.   Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark Recommended Position Long at 5578
Early support is at 5505 and 5488 It should hold.  Resistance is near  5553 and 5577  Beyond that 5588 to 5602 and 5640 offer's  resistance. Traders should sell at 5640 for a quick 'day' turn lower, stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Support is near the  7033 and 7002 to 6990  regions. Traders can buy at 6990, risk a close under 6970 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 7074 and 7088.  Traders should short at 7086 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row. Beyond that Resistance is near 7143
 

Precious Metals
April Gold
Good Support is near  290 and 288. Position Traders should weakness at 288.5 and Hold.
Resistance is 297 /300  and  303.7, traders can go long on a close of 303.6 or higher. Additional Resistance is near 307.7 and  311. 5, traders can short at 311.5 for a quick turn only, risk a trade over 314.5.

Friendly, Buy Dips.

May Copper Recommended Position Long at 7600
Support is at  7685 and 7485  below that  traders can buy at 7060 for a good  bounce, risk a close under 6990 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 7785 and 7880.  A close over 7880 indicates a rally back to 8070, and 8300  above that traders should sell short at 8480 risk a close over 8500 for two days in a row.

April Platinum
Support is near  371.5.  Below that support should appear  near 370.4  and 368 Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce, risk  only  $ 4.00. Below that 344 should stop any
decline.  Nearby resistance is  390.4, a close over 391 augurs for a test of  399 to 404.
Long Term Friendly,
and a bit disappointed at missing the Buy at 369 by 50 cents ...
 
March Silver Recommended Position /long at  627 and 601
Support is at  607 and  600.5 and it  should hold.  Resistance is near 632  and 640  a close  over 640 is friendly and augurs for a test of 671

May Silver
Support is near 609 and 602
Resistance is near 629 and 642,  a close over 642 augurs for a test of 669 and 694
Be Long

                         The Exciting Energies

April Crude Recommended Positions, long at 1603 and 1535
Early support is at  1525 and 1517   Resistance should first appear near 1550/ 1553  and 1567 to 1575

a close today over 1553 is friendly

April Unleaded Gas Recommended Position long at 5260
support should appear near  5100 and 5057  Resistance is near  5155 and 5250.
Friendly, Buy dips.

 A close over 5158 augurs for a test of 5345.

April Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 4445 and 4320
Support is 4205 and 4175  Resistance near 4400, a close over   4375 is friendly
and augurs for a trade to 4490.
 
 

The ‘Grande’ Grains

May Soybeans
Support is at  647 and 642   Resistance is near 655 and 656.5 A close over 656.5 augurs for a thrust towards 669 and 675.

July Beans Recommended Position: Long (2) at 663
Support is at 654 1/4 and 647 Resistance is 661 and 668 beyond that a test of 679 is likely

a close over 661 1/2 is friendly.

May Soybean Meal
Go long May Meal on a close over 182.5
Support is 174.9 Resistance is near 179 and 186.

A close over 178 is friendly.

May Soybean Oil
support is at  2672  and  2664 Resistance is near 2700 and 2727 beyond that 2758 to 2775,  Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2798 for two days in a row.

May Corn Recommended Position Long at 271
Support is  at  268 to 266   Resistance is near  271 3/4  a close over 272   augurs for a ‘pop’ to resistance at 276 3/4 to 277 3/4
 

May Wheat Recommended Position long at 329 3/4
Support is near 332 to 331 1/4  Resistance is near 337, a close over 337 augurs for a test of  343/ 344.

July Wheat  Long (2) at  342
Support is at 340 1/2 and 337 1/4 Below that 334 offers support.
Resistance is near 346 1/2 and 349.
 

The Satisfying Softs

May Cotton  Recommended Position Long at 6610 and 6575
Support is 6590 and 6565.  Resistance is 6655 and  6712. Beyond that 6825, exit and short at 6825, risk a close over 6920 for three days in a row.

May Sugar
Nearby support is 957 and 942. Resistance is near 975 and 997
 
May Coffee
On the Downside, support is at  165.50 and 164.20 should hold,  more support should appear near 163.50 /162.95 and 161.50/ 161.10. Closing under 160.90 augurs for a slip to 156.35 Aggressive Traders should have buy orders waiting at  156.90, initially plan a risk on a close under 153.50.
If the Coffee Cools off and trades down to 141.70 Traders should go long and  hold.
On ,the Upside Early resistance is near 166.75 and  168.90, above that 171.70 and 173.10  to 173.80, beyond that 176.45 should trade.

Still Friendly,  Traders Who have Ice Water in their Veins should buy this dip for a bounce.  Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.
 
May Cocoa
Resistance is 1609 to 1615, above that  a trade to 1646 /1652  should occur.
Early Support is near 1596  and 1545 to 1529.
 

                        The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle
Support is 6455 and 6427 to 6380.  Resistance is near at 6480  and 6507. A close over 6487 is friendly for a short covering rally to 6627.
Traders should go long if a close over 6545 occurs.

April Hogs  Long at 5145
Resistance is at 4917 and 4957 Support is near 4857 and 4777, below that 4757 to 4717 should hold

A close over 4857 is friendly over 4870 augurs for a rally back to 4957 with an outside chance of testing 5150.

Recommended Spread Position long April Short June at 820  and 865 under.
HOLD

March Bellies Recommended Position Long at 4612
Hold

May Bellies
Support is near  4155 and  4060, below that  Traders should  buy at 4002 for the ‘Pull’  Resistance is near 4297 and 4360 to 4395, a close over 4427 is friendly for a rally to  4557 to 4575.

Traders should Buy May Bellies at 4437 Stop.

'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'
             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

June  30 Yr. Bonds
Support is 119-27 then 119-23 to 119-18, a close under 119-22 is negative for a slip towards 118-22. Resistance is near 120-17 and 120-23, day traders should sell at  120-23  and risk 10 pts More resistance is 121-18 to 121-23.

March SP500  Recommended positions Short at 1023 and 1035.80
On the Downside, Support is at  1046.90 and 1043.60, below that  1036.50. 1043.60 is critical and should hold basis the close.
On the Upside, Resistance is at 1057.60  to 1058  traders can sell at 1058, risk 600 pts. Beyond that 1068 is  likely.

* A close under 1043.60 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'  should Go Short.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support at  8484 and 8449, under that 8427 is  critical basis the close. Beneath  that 8390 should hold, if upside momentum is going to carry  Resistance is near  8499 and 8532 which should cap the current rally  Beyond that  sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk, Without Risk there is no Reward.
Happy Trading

Bill

Thursday February 26, 1998
7:55:56 PM

 
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