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“A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong --
not taking the loss- that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul."
- Jesse livermore-
 
Morning Comments
March 2nd 1998
 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.


Saturday, February 28, 1998
8:04 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

March J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7963 and  7886
Today's support  is at  7939 to 7928, under that 7902 and 7899
Below that 7864 to 7856. Resistance is near 7956, beyond that additional Resistance is near 7994 and 8019 beyond that 8122.  If a sharp rally occurs Traders can go short at 8223 for a turn lower, risk  50 pts basis the close.

A close over 7956 is friendly

March Swiss Franc
Support should appear at 6836 and 6822 , below that 6804 should hold.  A close under 6781 augurs for a test of 6764 to 6755. Below that traders should  Go long for a bounce at 6741. Risk 20 pts. Resistance should begin at  6854 to 6857 beyond that a test of 6871 is likely ,which should yield a ‘pop’ to  6906 to 6919 then 6954.  A close over 7003 augurs for a Thrust to 7074.

Hearty Traders should Buy at 6836 for a day trade,

Traders should continue to expect a weaker Dollar over the next two weeks

March British:
Support is at 164.20 under  that 163.74 and 163.20  Below that Support is near 161.50 to 160.90. Traders should buy at 161.50 for a bounce, risk a trade under  160.80. Resistance is at 164.86 then 165.50 and 167.30.   Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark Recommended Position Long at 5578
Early support is at 5506 and 5492 to 5481 and It should hold.  Resistance is near  5553 and 5581  Beyond that 5606 and 5640 offer's  resistance. Traders should sell at 5640 for a quick 'day' turn lower, stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Support is near the 7002 to the 6990  region. Traders can buy at 6990, risk a close under 6970 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 7033 to 7039 beyond that 7074 and 7088.  Traders should short at 7086 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row.

                         Precious Metals
April Gold
Support is near  296.3 and 290 to 288. Position Traders should weakness at 288.5 and Hold. Resistance is 300.8  and  303.5  traders can go long on a close of 303.6 or higher. Additional Resistance is near 310.7, traders can short at 311.5 for a quick turn only, risk a trade over 314.5.

Friendly, Buy Dips.

May Copper
Support is at 7690 and 7605  below that 7490 Resistance is at 7760 and 7790.  A close over 7880 indicates a rally back to 8070, and 8300  above that traders should sell short at 8480 risk a close over 8500 for two days in a row.

April Platinum
Support is near  375.5 to 373.5.  Below that support should appear  near 370.4  and 368 Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce, risk  only  $ 4.00. Below that 344 should stop any
Decline.  Nearby resistance is  383 and 393. A close over 395 augurs for a test of  399 to 404.
Long Term Friendly,

May Silver
Support is near 646 and 633 , below that 624 to 621
Resistance is near  662.5  and 670.0 beyond that 686.
Be Long

                                   The Exciting Energies

April Crude Recommended Positions, long at 1603 and 1535 Hold
Early support is at  1527 and 1513 under that 1502 should hold.  Resistance should first appear near 1552 /1563  then 1577

A close today over 1553 is friendly

April Unleaded Gas Recommended Position long at 5260  Hold
Support should appear near  5087 and 5064   Resistance is near  5135 and 5165.
Friendly, Buy dips.

 A close over 5135 augurs for a test of 5345.

April Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 4445 and 4320 Hold
Support is 4295 and 4220.   Resistance near 4374 and 4415
A  close over  4375 is friendly  and augurs for a trade to 4490.
 
 

The ‘Grande’ Grains

May Soybeans
Support is at  656 1/4 and 653. Below that 645 3/4 to 642.
 Resistance is near 663 1/2  and 670 1/4 to 673 3/4.

July Beans Recommended Position: Long (2) at 663
Support is at 661 3/4 and 658 3/4 below that 654 3/4
Resistance is 668 3/4 beyond that a test of 672 to 675 3/4  is likely

A  close over 662  maintains a friendly posture

May Soybean Meal
Go long May Meal on a close over 182.5
Support is 177.1 and 175.8.  Resistance is near 179.1 to 179.8 and 181.

May Soybean Oil
Support is at  2704  and  2683 Resistance is near  2720 beyond that 2758 to 2775 and 2804. Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2798 for two days in a row.

May Corn Recommended Position Long at 271
Support is at  269 to 267  Resistance is near  271 3/4  and 272.
A close over 272   augurs for a ‘pop’ to resistance at 276 3/4 to 277
 

May Wheat
Support is near 337 3/4 and 333 1/2  to 331 3/4
Resistance is near  343 3/4, a close over 344 augurs for a test of 349 3/4 and 355

July Wheat Recommended Position   Long (2) at  342
Support is at 346 3/4 and 343 1/2  Below that 340 3/4  offers support.
Resistance is near 348 3/4 and 352 3/4 , beyond that 358 3/4 to 360

Be long
 

                               The Satisfying Softs

May Cotton  Recommended Position Long at 6575
Support is 6650 and 6620 under that 6570 to 6550
Resistance is 6675 and 6720 to 6750. Beyond that traders should  exit and short at 6825, risk a close over 6920 for three days in a row.

May Sugar
Nearby support is 972 to 961. Below that 941.
Resistance is near 1001 and 1005
 
May Coffee
On the Downside, support is at  161.90 and 161.50 to 160.90 and 159.15. Closing under 160.90 augurs for a slip to 156.35 Aggressive Traders should have buy orders waiting at  156.90, initially plan a risk on a close under 153.50
If the Coffee Cools off and trades down to 141.70 Traders should go long and  hold.
On the Upside, Early resistance is near 162.80, extended trade over 162.85 augurs for
A test of 164.20 and 165.50 where resistance remains beyond that 167.00 offers
Resistance. Above that 171.70 and 173.10  to 173.80, beyond that 176.45 should trade.

Still Friendly,  Traders Who have Ice Water in their Veins should buy this dip for a turn higher by Wed.

A close over 162.45 and the shorts will scatter.
Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.
 
May Cocoa
Resistance is 1615, above that  a trade to 1642 /1658  should occur. Where 1647/1648 should be considered critical. Day Traders can sell at 1647 and risk 20 pts.
 Support is near 1609 then 1602 to 1598 with  1548/ 1547 below that.
 

                        The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle
Support is 6430 to 6417 under that  6387 to 6350  below that 6330.
Resistance is near at 6457 and 6477. A close over 6457 is friendly for a minor short
covering rally to 6532.
Traders should go long if a close over 6545 occurs.

April Hogs Recommended Position Long at 5145
Resistance is at 4907 to 4915 and 4927. Beyond that 4962 to 4972 , a close over 4985
augurs for a pop to 5055 then 5160 .  Support is near 4867 to 4857 /4845. Below that 4787 to 4772  should hold basis the close.

The close over 4870 was friendly and augurs for a rally back to 4957 with an outside chance of testing 5050.

June Hogs
Support is near 5742 and 5682  to 5642  where position traders should Buy for the ‘Pull’ (New Trade) based on the Special Report.  Resistance is near 5842  and 5882.
A close over 5855 augurs for a test of 6022.

Recommended Spread Position long April Short June at 820  and 865 under.
Exit according to the Special Report Issued Saturday.  Stay tuned...

March Bellies Recommended Position Long at 4612
Hold

May Bellies
Support is near  4065, below that  Traders should  buy at 4002 for the ‘Pull’  Under that support should be evident near 3990 to 3932. Below that 3867.
 Resistance is near 4110 to 4120 then 4187. a close over 4192 augurs for a test of  4237 and 4257  Beyond that 4395 offers resistance

'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'

             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

June  30 Yr. Bonds
Support is 119-28 then 119-24 and 119-16, a close under 119-28 is negative for a slip towards 119-08 with an eventual test of 118-24 Resistance is near 120-21 and 120-24, day traders should sell at 120-24 and risk a trade over 121-04  More resistance is 121-02 then  121-16 and 121-24.

March SP500  Recommended positions Short at 1023 and 1035.80
On the Downside, Support is at  1046.90 and 1045.90 beneath that  1041.80 offers good support. Below that 1036 and 1032 offer support.  However a Close under 1041.80 indicates a test of 1024.80 to 1023.30 which is critical and should hold.
On the Upside, Early resistance is at 1050.70 and 155.10 mores is located at 1054.90 and 1057.80 to 1058 where  traders can sell at 1058, risk 600 pts. Beyond that 1068 is  likely.

* A close under 1046.80 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'  should Go Short or Add.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support at  8518  and 8499 then  8491.6 to 8484. Beneath  that 8476.8 . Below  that 8445 is  critical basis the close. Beneath  that 8396 should hold  if upside momentum is going to continue . For today Resistance is near  8560 to 8589 and 8591. Beyond that 8620 to 8628 offer's resistance

A close under 8491 is negative.

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk, Without Risk there is no Reward.

Happy Trading

Bill

Saturday February 28, 1998
9:52 PM
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