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Precious Metals - Energy - Livestock - Grains - Softs

FuturesCom Investment Publications
Morning Comments, Wed November 20th, 2002
Experienced Since 1979 - Serving Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690 Rockport Circle, Lake Worth, Florida 33467 Tel: 1-561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com

If all our misfortunes were laid in one common heap whence everyone must take an equal portion,
most people would be contented to take their own and depart. --Socrates-

Wednesday November 20th, 2002
8:00 PM eastern standard time

The ‘Frenzied’ Forex Front
December Yen
The recent down grade by the BOJ of the Japanese's economy forced traders to rethink holding Yen positions, the BOJ said it fears an anemic global recovery will hurt Japan's exports and domestic production.
This is the first time in eleven months that the BOJ has issued a downgrade. Along with the down grade it planned to leave monetary policy steady but will print more yen.. This all has led to pressure on the
Yen which many traders will most likely remain range bound to weak...However it appear a bit overdone for now so expect a nice bounce.
Support should appear near 8134 to 8119 and should contain the decline for a bit.. Below that buyers should appear near 8044 to 8029.
Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223 , a level we expect to be tested again.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8262 and the 8300 to 8314 region , which should cap a sharp advance.

Pick Your Poison..

December Euro Currency (EC)
Moody's downgrade of Allianz and the subsequent worries about European banks gave reason for traders to sell Euros down to parity with the dollar in addition is has been a lot of babble over the Euro zone Stability and Growth pact and whether it will be modified or not.

This is the same talk that has caused traders to get short the Euro time and time again over the last year to no avail as just this week it posted it's highest levels since July and is essentially at highs not seen since
Feb of 2000.. In addition the strength of the U.S. Stock market also has made traders turn a bit bullish on the Dollar Versus the Euro.

Generally speaking the U.S Stock market although very robust looking Still remains at or just under the Sell off low for Sept of 2001 (which was supposed to be THE bottom at the time) and down on the year.
All the while the busiest workers in America are munition plant employees working 12 hour shifts 6 days a week the U.S is conducting war games on the border of Kuwait and Iraq..

We remain friendly to Euro and it's partners and favor buying the pullbacks for now.. Swiss Franc and Sterling appear resisliant at these levels.

Recommended Open BW Position Long at 10041
Support should appear at 9979 and 9937 to 9921 Resistance is at 10021 to 10037 and 1.0079

December Swiss Franc
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 6868
Resistance should appear near 6836 and 6872..Support should appear near 6809 and 6782.

December British Pound
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 1.5728
Support should appear near 1.5690 and 1.5612 and 1.5586 Resistance should appear near
1.5734 and 1.5760..A close over is freindly and augurs for an eventual test of 1.5912..

December Canadian Dollar
Longer term see the Canadian dollar moving higher .. but first it has to start holding again . Recently
Canadian 'Senior' Industry Minister Allen Rock made some comments about the undsiribilty level of weakness of it's Fiat currency..It's good to hear a government official take a stand .. but neverthelessthe Canuck is having problems getting out of it's own way. However we see no reason to press the shortside at these levels and desire to continue poking at the long side.

Support should appear near 6270 to 6257 and should contain a decline… A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 6190 to 6165.
Resistance is at 6337 to 6350 , a close over augurs for a test of 6417 to 6430..

December Aussie Dollar
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 5582
Support is at 5577 to 5553
Resistance is at 5607 and the 5640 to 5653 region..

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should appear near 8668 to 8683 where sellers should appear attempt to Cap an early rally.
Beyond that resistance is at 8762 to 8777
Support should appear near 8689 to 8560 and 8499 to 8484 ..

December SP500
Recommended Open BW Position Short at 891.50
Resistance is at 923.60 and the 931.60 to 934.70 region. Support should appear near 915.60 to m914.00 and 906.00 to 904.40.

Nasdaq Composite
Resistance is at 1421and the 1453 to 1459 region. Support should appear near 1415, a slip under augurs for a test of 1399 .. below that buyers should appear near the 1383 to 1377 region

December Mini Nasdaq 100
Resistance is at 1096 to 1101 and 1130 to1136
Support is at 1068 to 1058.

March Ten Year T-Notes
Resistance should appear near 112-07 and 112-23..
Support is at 111-23 and 111-05.

Precious Metals

December Gold
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 321.7
Support should appear at the 315.7 to 314.8 region.
Resistance is at 319.4 to 321.3

December Copper
Support should appear near 7485 to 7515 and 7585 to 7605
Resistance should appear near 7430 to 7415 and 7345 to 7325.

December Silver
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 4.55
Support should appear near 451.5 to 450.0 and 444.5 to 442.5
Resistance is at 457.0 to 458.5 and 463.5 to 465.0

The Exciting Energies

January Crude Oil
Support should appear near 2519 to 2511
Resistance is at 2552 to 2568 and 2612 to 2620

January Unleaded Gas
Recommended Open BW Position , long 2 at 6885 avg
Support should appear near 6835 to 6805 and 6755 to 6740
Resistance is at 6990 to 7005 and 7075 to 7090

January Heating Oil
Resistance is at 7240 to 7255 and 7325 to 7345 .
Support should appear near 7170 to 7140 and 7090 to 7070

January Natural Gas
Resistance is at 4.370 to 4.381 and 4.425 to 4.446
Support is at 4.315 to 4.304 and 4.249 to 4.238

The Lively Livestock
December Live Cattle
Resistance should appear near 7412 to 7427. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7487 to 7512.
BW traders can sell at 7482 for a turn lower and risk a close over 7522 for three days in a row
Support is at 7327 and 7257 to 7242

Stay tuned for updates

December Hogs
Recommended Open BW Position, short at 2 at 4342 avg
Support is at 4517 to 4507 .
Resistance is at 4572 to 4587 and 4637 to 4652

Feb Hogs
Support is at 5282 to 5257
Resistance is at the 5342 to 5357 region.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5417 to 5432.

February Pork Bellies
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 7962
Support should appear at 8047 to 8027 then 7957 to 7937 and 7867 to 7837
Resistance is at 8117 to 8137 and 8192 to 8222.

-Stay tuned for Livestock and Belly Updates and Flashes-

The Grande’ Grains

Jan Soybeans
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 566 1/2
Resistance is at 579 1/4 to 580 1/2
Support should appear near the 572 3/4 to 571 3/4 and 565 1/4 to 564

December Soymeal
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 166.1
Support should appear near 165.5 to 164.2
Resistance is at 168.9 to 169.6

December Soybean Oil
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2236
Resistance is near 2267 to 2275
Support should appear near 2226 to 2219 and 2185 to 2179
BW Traders should go long if a close over 2278 occurs.

Dec Corn
Resistance should appear near 251 1/4 to 252 .
Support is at 247 to 246 1/4 and 244

December Wheat
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 402 ½ avg
Support should appear at 380 3/4 to 379 1/2 and the 374 1/2 to 373 3/4 region..
Resistance is at 385 2/3 to 386 3/4 and the 390 3/4 to 392 3/4 region,

March Wheat
Support should appear at 379 3/4 and 374 1/2 to 373 3/4...
Resistance is at 390 3/4 to 392 3/4
BW Traders should go long if a close over 393 ¼ occurs.

The Satisfying Softs

March Cocoa
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 1753
Support is at 1738 to 1731 and 1696 to 1689
Resistance should appear near 1774 to 1780 and the 1808 to 1822 region.

March Coffee
Support is near the 7005 to 6990 and the 6925 to 6905 region .. Below that buyers should appear near 6835 to 6805 and the 6755 to 6740 region .
Resistance should appear near 7140 to 7170 and 7325 to 7345
BW Traders should go long if a close over 7185 occurs.

March Sugar
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 737 avg
Support should appear near 712 to 704 .
Resistance should appear near 735 to 739

March Cotton
Support should appear near the 4930 to 4915 region.. Below that buyers should appear near 4855 to 4845 and the 4785 to 4775 region.. BW Traders can buy at 4935 and risk a close under 4835 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 4975 to 4995 and 5035 to 5065

Ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!
Bill
bill@futurescom.com 1-561-433-2995
Tuesday , November 19th, 2002
5:15 PM , South Florida Beach Time

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.