FuturesCom
Investment Publications
Morning Comments, Monday November 10th
2003
Experienced Since 1979 -
Serving Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690
Rockport Circle, Lake Worth, Florida 33467 Tel: 1-561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com
Tuesday is
Veterans Day in the U.S , the Bond market is closed as well as Banks and
Government offices
Saturday November 8th, 2003
1:40 PM Eastern time
The
‘Frenzied’ Forex Front
Now that traders have been given a full plate of economic data from the
government and corporate sector via earning reports a more two sided forex
market is likely... On Friday , holders of Dollar Longs ran for a door that was
closing fast after the release of the U.S Jobs data and the interim
downside targets in Cable, EC and Swiss were hit , while this was
happening gold began to firm off it's lows on concerns over a State
Department warning to US interests in the Middle East and North Africa...
This is nothing new, as are the seemingly ever increasing casualties list in
Iraq... However Geo-political news may come into forefront especially
after recent speeches by President Bush concerning the middle east and the
eventual democrazation of it...
As mentioned in Last weekends Bi-Weekly Outlook the buoyancy in Cable resulting from the expected BoE rate hike was overdone, it eventually hit the buy area, then closed sharply higher .. Buy Dips in Pounds as we remain long term friendly Cable....The Canuck rallied on a .4 % drop in Canadian Unemployment bringing the rate to 7.6% in October.. While still long term bullish, traders should approach the Canuck as a trading affair and preference is given to the short side for the time being.. sell rallies
While remaining friendly towards the Aussie, there is no change in near term Yen posture as traders may very well choose to take profits and exit the long positions past next week.. In Yen terms do not rule out another shot towards 117 by early next year...
-- Stay tuned for BW Updates and Flashes-
December Yen
Resistance should appear near 9235 and the 9316 to 9347 region
Support should appear near 9140 , a close under
augurs for a trade to 9060 to 9044 and eventually the 8965 to
8934 region
Aggressive Traders Should go short if a close under 9137 occurs
December Euro
Currency (EC)
Support
should appear at 11500 and 11430..below that another test of 11360 to
11320
Resistance is at
11565 to 11575 and the 11640 to 11665 region
BW Traders call sell at 11637 for a turn lower ..
December
Swiss Franc
Resistance
should appear near 7414 to 7428
Support should
appear near 7342 to 7328 and 7291 below that buyers should
appear near
7255 to 7242
December British Pound
Support should appear near the 1.6550 to 1.6420 region.
Resistance should appear near 1.6720
and 16890
to 1.6960
BW Traders should go long if a close over 1.6728 occurs
December Canadian Dollar
Support should appear
near 7513 to 7486
Resistance is at
7587 to 7601.. beyond that resistance should appear near 7675 to 7689 . BW
Traders can sell at 7637 and risk a close over 7694 for three days in a
row..
BW Traders Should go short if a close under 7484 occurs
December Aussie Dollar
Support should appear near the
7037 and 7003 to 6990
Resistance should appear at 7074 to 7088
and the 7143 to 7170 region.
The
Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should appear
near 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region
Support
should appear near 9737 to
9707 and 9641 to 9625
December SP500
Resistance
should appear near 1058 to 1063 and 1068.00
Support should appear near 1047 and 1036 to 1032
Stay tuned for BW SP500 Updates and Flashes…
Nasdaq Composite
Resistance should appear near the 1982 to 1996 region. Beyond that sellers
should appear near 2034 to 2042.
Support should appear near 1953 to 1946
and 1927.5
December Mini Nasdaq 100
Resistance is at 1453 to 1459
Support is at 1421 to 1415 and 1399
December
10 Year T-Note
Resistance should
appear near 111-12 then 111-23 and 112-09 .
Support is at 110-23 and 110-07
Precious
Metals
December Gold
Support should appear at 380.6 to 379.5 and 374.30
to 373.40
Resistance is at 385.80
to 386.70 and 390.9 to 392.9
BW Traders should go long if a close over 387.10 occurs
December
Copper
Recommended open position long 9575
Support should appear near 9345
to 9315 and 9235
Resistance should appear near 9525 to 9540 and 9625 to 9640
December Silver
Support should appear the 499.5 to 497.5 and the 485.5 to 484.5 region.
Resistance is at 512.5 to 514 and 520 to
521.5
BW Traders should go long if a close over 515.5 occurs
The
Exciting Energies
December
Crude Oil
Support should appear
near 3045 to 3036 and 2990 to 2972
Resistance is at 3092 to 3102 , a close over is friendly and augurs for a trade towards
3145 to 3157
December Unleaded Gas
Resistance
should appear near 8390 to 8405 and 8485 to 8500
Support should appear near 8225 to 8195 and 8045 to 8025 .
December
Heating Oil
Resistance
is
at 8485 to 8500 and 8560 to 8590
Support should appear near 8315 to 8300 and 8135 to 8115
The
Lively Livestock
February
Live Cattle
Resistance should
appear near
9235 and the 9315 to 9345 region
Support is at 9155 to
9140 and 9062
Lean
Hogs...
Pig slaughter estimates for the week were 2.146 million
head, up about 2.7 % last year. In fact kills for the last six weeks is up about 2.4
% from twelve months earlier. The kills were expected to be down just
under 2 percent based on the Sept 1 Hogs and Pigs data.. Additionally for the
four weeks ending October 25th imports from Canada were up nearly 1.5 percent.
If the current rate of increase continues the 4th quarter of this year will yield
a kill of about 27.4 million head.
In the disaster year of 1998 it was 27.6 million head. Capacity to
slaughter has most likely increased with productivity over the last five years,
therefore a disaster like 1998 is unlikely .
However, one has to wonder if the corporate farms are going to go thru another wave of expanding the total inventory with intent of killing off the remaining balance of small farms .. In addition the distinct possibility exists that Canada dramatically expanded it's inventory for export to U.S at the very onset of the Mad Cow problems , knowing full well it would be quite some time before Cows would be crossing the border..
While remaining negative for hogs and bellies for the time being., look to buy June Hogs on a break under 6100 down the road....
December Lean Hogs
Support is at 5282 to 5257, a close under augurs for a test of
5212 to 5197...
Resistance is at 5342 to 5357 and the 5417 to 5432 region.. BW
Traders can sell at for a turn lower 5487, hold for lower prices…
BW Traders should go short if a close under 5247 occurs.
February Lean Hogs
Support is at 5957 to 5942 and 5887 to 5857 , a close under augurs for a test of
5807 to 5792 and eventually the 5732 to 5717 region.. ..
Resistance is at 6022 to 6037 and the 6101 to 6112 .. Beyond that sellers
should appear near the 6162 to 6192.. BW
Traders can sell at for a turn lower 6157 hold for lower prices…
BW Traders should go short if a close under 5847 occurs.
February Pork
Bellies
Recommended Open Position Short at 8857
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8682 to 8667 region..
Resistance is
at 8857 to 8872 then 8932 to 8967 and the 9042 to
9062 region
BW Traders should
go short if a close under 8657 occurs
The
Grande’ Grains
January Soybeans
Resistance is at 748 3/4 to 751 1/4 and 758 3/4 to 760 1/4
Support should appear at 734 1/4 to 732 3/4
and the 717 to 714 1/4 region
December
Soymeal
Support should appear near 237 to 235.4..
A slip under is negative and augurs for a test of 227.5 to 226.7 and the
222.6 to 221.9 region. BW
Traders can buy at 223.1 and risk a close under 211.9 for three days in a
row.
Resistance should appear near 241.1 to 241.9 and 246.1 to 246.9
December Soybean Oil
Resistance should appear near 2552 to 2568
Support should appear near 2511 and 2469 to 2461.. below that a test of 2419 to
2411 is likely
December Corn
Recommended open position long 237 1/2
Resistance should appear near 235 1/2 to 237 and 241 1/4 to 241 3/4
Support is at 232 1/4 to 231 1/2 and 222 3/4 to 221 3/4
December CBOT Wheat
Recommended Open Position Long at 378
Support should appear near 374 1/4 to 373 1/2 and 368 1/4 to 366
1/4
Resistance is at 379 1/2 to 380 3/4 and 385
3/4 to 386 3/4
The
Satisfying Softs
December the ‘Monster’ Coffee
Support is near 5880 to 5855 and 5805 to 5790
Resistance should appear near the 6025 to 6035 and
6105 to 6115 region
BW Traders should go long if a close over 6055 occurs
December Cocoa
Recommended open position long at 1471
Support is at 1496 to 1484 and 1459 to 1453
Resistance should appear near 1529 to 1536 and 1569
to 1576
March Cocoa
Support is at 1459 to 1453 and 1421 to 1415.
Resistance should appear near 1484 to 1496 and
the 1529 to 1535 region
March Sugar
Support should appear near 601 and 586 to 583
Resistance should appear near 609 and 630 to 634
December
Cotton
Support should appear near 7690 to 7675 and 7605 to 7585 ...
Resistance should appear near the 7835 to 7865 region ..Beyond that a test of 7940 to 7955 is likely.
March
Cotton
Support should appear near 7955 to 7940 and the 7780 to 7765 region
Resistance should appear near 8025 to 8045 and the 8120 to 8135 region, a close over augurs for a test of 8300 to 8315 .
A Ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that is not what ships
are built for –
Happy
Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
1-561-433-2995
Saturday November 8th, 2003
5:20 PM .. South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS
THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED
TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN
PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL
LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION
TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE
USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS.
SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR
ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK
DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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