- Possible Pork Situation -

 

9-23-2004
11:00 PM eastern time

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's all Important ‘ Quarterly Hog Report’ will be released Friday after the close.  

We feel that the government will revise June’s data upward to reflect the large kills this summer and may in fact show that producer’s profitability may have slowed herd liquidation and that expansion has begun
Listed below are the average estimates and range as well as our estimates for the report ..

   

                                             Avg        Range            FuturesCom

All hogs and pigs on Sept 1   100.5      98.5-102.0       102 

Kept for breeding                     99.4      98.3-101.0       100

Kept for marketing                  100.6     98.5-102.0       102                  

With corn prices falling precipitously during the last quarter and hog prices remaining firm, and now surging,
our belief is that producers have begun expanding the herd to capture profits from the higher prices and that pork prices will set back to a lower level in the next few years.. 

Granted, expecting a bearish report may be a shot in the dark so to speak, however we advise traders to maintain current shorts (if able) into the report and stay tuned for additional selling chances during Friday’s session…
Today’s settlement for December was 7120 .. Feb sits at 6850 and June the only one to buy sits at 6960..
Long Spread Term Traders may want to buy June and Sell Feb looking for the spread to move from current 110 pts to 400 to 600 in early 2005

Stay tuned for updates and flashes

- A Ship in Harbor is Safe...But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading! 
Bill  wil@futurescom.com
1-866-409-3890

Sept 24th , 2004
2:00  AM eastern time

 

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