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"A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory. "
-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-

Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II

Saturday, June 13, 1998
10:32 AM 

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen

Support is 7003 to 6998 and 6990, below that some buyers should appear near 6977 and 6954 to 6949. A close under 6954 augurs for a slip to 6919 to 6906. A close under 6906 indicates a test of 6836. Traders can buy at 6836 for a bounce only, risk 40 pts.

Nearby Resistance is at 7049 and then 7068 and 7088. Beyond that beyond that resistance is at 7094 to 7112. A close over 7068 is friendly, a close over 7088 indicates a test 7143 and 7197. Traders should sell short at 7170 , risk a close over 7207. Beyond that resistance is a t 7328 to 7342. Sell at 7328, risk a close over 7345 for three days in a row.

Traders should be prepared for an eventual rally to the 7328 to 7344 region..

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6755

Nearby support is at 6707 , below that support is at 6694 to 6689. A slip under augurs for a test of 6673 where Position traders should buy for the ‘Pull’ at 6673 risk a close under 6576 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 6739 to 6741 and 6756. A close over 6756 is friendly for a test of the 6789 / 6794 to 6809 region. A close over 6809 indicates a test of 6836. Beyond that resistance is near 6890. Traders can exit longs / go short at 6890. Initially Risk a close over 6919 for two days in a row. 

Traders should Go long / Add on a close over 6756.

Trade Accordingly

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6150 to 1.6090. Traders should Go long at 1.6150 risk a close under 1.6090. For two days in a row. Resistance is at and 1.6282 and 163.06. A close over 163.16. augurs for a test of 1.6420. Beyond that a rally to the 1.6550 166.10 region is likely. Traders should sell short at 1.6550, risk a close over 1.6610, risk a close over 167.36 for two days in a row.

Traders should Go long on a close over 163.16.

 

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long 5577.

Early support is at 5553. Below that support is at 5541. More support is near the 5504 region with good support at under that 5490 to 5480 which should contain a break.If not a slip to 5461 is likely.

Resistance is at 5570 and 5581 and 5591. However close over 5577 is friendly for an eventually rise to 5615. Beyond that sellers should raise their heads near the 5641 to 5643 region. Beyond that at test of 5688 is likely, Traders should go short at 5688 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row.

* A close over 5577 is friendly, traders should add or go long on a close over 5577.

Sept. Canadian Dollar Recommended Position long at 6836


Early Support remains at 6813 to 6809. Below that support is 6781 with more at 6755 and 6741. We think the Canadian Dollar has suffered enough at this point a good short covering rally is over due. Resistance is near 6820 and 6836. A close over 6820 is friendly and indicates a test of 6863 to 6865. A close over 6865 augurs for a thrust towards 6906 to 6914 where traders should sell at 6906 , risk a close over 6922 for three days in a row.

Go long or Add on a close over 6820.

Trade Accordingly.

Precious Metals

August Gold Recommended Position Long at 2 at 294.80

Nearby Support is at 285.8 282 to 282.6, below that buyers can be found at 275.5 to 276.5. Resistance is at 288.5 and 293.6 to 295. A close over 295 augurs for a test of  299. A close over 299 is bullish and augurs for a rally to 310.

In the short term a close over 288.5 is friendly. Traders should add or go long on a close over 288.5 the initial target would be 295.

July Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7780

Support is at 7510 to 7480. A close under indicates a test of 7425 to 7405. Below that 7280 should hold. Nearby Resistance is at 7625 and 7680. Above that resistance is at 7805 and 7880 to 7950.

Trade Accordingly,

July Platinum Recommended Position Long at 358 and 349. Traders should risk a three days close under 331 on all positions. Early Support is near 346.5 and 343. below that 338.7 and 331 should hold. Resistance is at 350.5 and 352.5. A close over 350.5 augurs for a test of 355 and 358. Beyond that a rally to 362.5 and 374 is likely to occur. Beyond that 377 offers good resistance. Traders should Go Short at 377 , risk a Close over 383 for two days in a row.

Long Term Friendly

July Silver

On the Downside: Support is at 503.5 and 499.0 Below that traders can buy at 493 and hold. On the Upside early resistance is at 517.5 to 520. A close over 520 augurs for a test of 532.5 and 538. A close over 536 augurs for a test of the 557 to 563 region.

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

July Crude Recommended Position long at 1511

August Crude

August Crude has support at 1380 and 1355. Below that 1335 should hold. A slip under augurs for a 1310 to 1304. Traders should buy at 1304 and Hold.

Resistance is at 1406 and 1433. A close over 1433 indicates a test of the 1484 to 1496 region. Beyond that a thrust towards the 1569 /1576 region is possible.Beyond that traders should sell at 1689 and hold for a turn lower.

A trade over 1406 is friendly , traders should go long at 1407 Stop.

August Unleaded Gas

Support is at 4717 and 4660 to 4635. Traders should buy at 4717, risk a close under 4635 for two days in a row. Below that support is near 4570 and 4505.

Nearby Resistance is at 4775 to 4790. A close over 4790 augurs for a test of 4860 . A close over 4927 is bullish for a test of the 5085 /5125 region.

*Traders should go long on a close over 4927

July Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3869 Hold

August Heating Oil

Resistance at 3929 then 3979. Above that 4077 to 4137 offers resistance. Beyond that a test of 4400 is likely. Traders should Go Short at 4400 for a quick turn lower, risk a close over 4447 for three days in a row. On the Downside Support is at 3891 and 3730. Traders should Buy at 3745 and hold. Below that 3730 and 3660 should contain the break.

* Traders should go long using a 3957 Buy stop.

The Grande Grains

July Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 640, 639,645, 617 3/4(3) ,613 1/2 (6)

Friday's close of 613 3/4 was the highest close for the week. Bear markets are not supposed to do that on a Friday especially after a government report !

Early Next week Support is at 608 3/4 and 605 1/2. Below that 603 1/2 to 601 then 591 to 587 offers support. Nearby resistance is at 615 3/4 and 617 1/2 to 619 1/2. Above that 622 3/4 offers resistance but a test of the 625 to 628 region is more likely. Beyond that 629 3/4 and 633 1/2 to 636 3/4 offer resistance.

August Beans Recommended Position Long at 632, 608 and 601 (2) Hold

Spread Long August Short Nov. at 24 cents over Hold

August Soybean Meal

Nearby Support is 151.90 and 151.30 . Below that 149.30 and 145.90 offer support. Resistance is at 154.90, a close over augurs for a test of 157.30 and 161.

Trade Accordingly.

August Soybean Oil

Early support is at 2597 , below that support is at 2568 and 2562. Traders should buy at 2568 for a bounce. Risk a close under 2535 for two days in a row. Below that support should appear at 2519 to 2511 and the 2469 to 2461 region . Traders should Buy at 2469 and Hold. Resistance is at 2609/ 2612 to 2620 . Beyond that 2636 and 2661 to 2672 offer resistance. A close over 2672 augurs for a test of 2716 to 2724. Traders should sell at 2724 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 2776 for two days in a row.

Dec. Corn

Support should appear near 243 3/4 and 238 3/4 below that 232 should hold. Resistance is near 248 3/4 and 253 3/4. Traders should sell at 253 3/4, risk a close over 257 for two days in a row.

* Traders should Buy at 244, risk a close under 238 3/4 for three days in a row.

Sep Wheat

Resistance is at 293 3/4 and 296 3/4. Beyond that 304 offers good resistance. Traders should go short at 304 3/4 for a turn lower. Risk a Close over 311 for two days in a row. On the Downside Support is at 287 3/4 and 284. Below that some support should appear at 280 1/2 Traders under that traders can go long at 277 1/2 for a turn higher risk a close under 2721/2 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton

Nearby Support next week is at 7525 and 7502 traders can buy at 7502 for a turn higher and hold for higher prices. Below that support is at 7430 then 7350 and 7205. Traders can go long for a the pull at 7205. Resistance is at 7558 and 7608 to 7642. Beyond that a test of the highs near 7720 is likely, above that resistance is at 7777 and 8050.

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar

Support is 767 and 763, traders can go long at 768 and hold. Below that 756 and 747 should hold, a slip under that augurs for a test of the 739 to 726 region which should contain the break for the near term. Resistance is 777, a close over indicates a rally to Resistance near the 791 to 795 region with a likely test of 806 above that. Beyond that 838 offers resistance as does the 847 to 852 region. Beyond that traders can go short for a turn lower at 877, risk a close over 882 for three days in a row.

Sept. Coffee: Recommended Position Long at 121.95

On the DownSide, Early support is at 120.70 and 120.45, day traders can buy at 120.30 for a bounce, stay tuned for the stop. Below that support is at 119.20 and 117.90 and 116.90 to 116.40 On the Upside, Resistance is at 123.20 to 123.80 and 125.45 to 125.65. Beyond that a test of the 126.80/ 127.4 region is likely to occur. In addition a close over 125.70 augurs for a rally to 131.75.

Sept. Cocoa

Support is at 1627 and 1615 to 1609. A close under 1609 indicates a slip towards support at 1577 where traders can Buy for a turn higher, risk a close under 1569 for two days in a row. Below that 1535 to 1529 should hold.

Resistance is at 1634 and 1642 to 1655. A close over 1655 is friendly for a test of 1677 then 1689 to 1696. traders should go short at 1696 for a turn lower, risk a close over 1738 for two days in a row.

A trade through 1631 is friendly, traders should go long using a 1635 stop, risk a close back under 1608.

The Lively Livestock

August Cattle Recommended Position long at 6665

Initial Support is at 6612 and 6587 below that 6537 to 6507 should hold. Below that 6432 offers support. Resistance is at 6652 and 6687. A close over 6687 augurs for a test of 6757 and 6797 6845. Beyond that good resistance is at 6867. A close over 6867 indicates a test of resistance is at 6937.

*Traders should go long or add on a close over 6687.

Long term Friendly

July Hogs 

Nearby Support is 6170 and under that 6122, below that 6015 offers good support. Traders can Buy at 6017 for a turn higher. Initially risk a close under 5852 for two days in a row. Resistance is at 6270 and 6320 beyond that resistance is at 6370. Traders can go short at 6367 for a quick turn lower, risk a close over 6432 for three day in a row.

Recommended Spread Long Oct. Short July Hogs at 870 Hold.

July Bellies

On the DownSide Nearby support is at 6197 and 6117. Traders should buy 2 at 6117 and hold for higher prices. Below that support should be appear near 6067 and 6035 to 6022. Under that 5957 offers support. Below that the 5880 to 5855 region should contain a break if it occurs early next week. Below that buyers should appear at 5592 to 5577. Traders can buy at 5577 for a good bounce, risk a close under 5490 for two days in a row.

On the Upside Resistance is at 6217 and 6257 to 6270. An extended trade or close over 6217 augurs for a test of 6337 then 6367 and 6412 to 6427 /6430. Beyond that resistance is at 6507. above that a test of 6732 is likely.

Recommended Spread Long 5 July Short 5 August at 225 July over Aug. Hold.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds recommended position Short at 123-16

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 123-14/ 123-13 and 123-09 /123-05. Below that 122-20 and 122-14 offers good support. However A close under 123-09 is negative and augurs for a slip to the 122-14 /122-09 region. Below that 121-14 to 121-02 should hold. On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-27 and 124-14. Traders should sell short at 124-14. Above that resistance is at 125-13 to 125-14 which should cap the current rally.

Sept. SP500

On the DownSide, Support is at 1108.50, Day traders can Buy the first dip to 1108.50 for a bounce, risk a trade under 1105.40. below that support is at 1101 then 1098.50 to 1196. More support is at 1194.70 to 1192.30. Under that a slip to 1082 is likely. Below that support lies at 1076.30 and 1068 to the 1060 /1058 region.A slip under 1058 or close under 1058 indicates a test of 1052.50. traders can go long at 1052.50 and hold for higher prices. Under that support is at 1042.20. which should contain a decline for the moment.

On the Upside, Resistance is at resistance is at 1114 to 1115.50. Above that 1122.70 and 1123.80 offers good resistance. Traders should go short at 1123.80 for a quick turn lower. Stay tuned for the stop Beyond that sellers should appear at 1130 then 1132.20 and 1133. Above that 1136 1138.80 offers good resistance. Sell at 1136 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that resistance is at 1150 and 1151.70 with 1158.80 above that. If a sharp advance takes place 1164 to 1169 should Cap a Rally. Sell Short at 1164 and Hold.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Initial support is at 8805.5. A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762/ 8859 region. Below that a test of 8719 and 8683 to 8668 is likely. Below that 8539 should hold, if not a slip towards 8262 is likely.

Resistance should first appear at 8840 and 8856 to 8871 and 8892, above that good resistance is now at 8904 to 8910.2 and 8934 to 8964. Above that sellers should raise their heads at 8993 and 9004. Beyond that 9044 to 9060 offers good resistance as does 9100 and 9140 to 9156 which should contain a rising mkt. If not a touch of 9236 to 9247 is likely.

These Days one should play the Stock Market like Porcupines make Love, very carefully..

Happy Trading
Bill 

Saturday June 12 1998
5:42 PM
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